Published: 10/3/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Quiet risk-on. With official U.S. data disrupted, positioning leans into mega-cap tech and lower-volatility plays, while gold and equities hover near record highs as investors focus on an imminent Fed easing path.

Currency Outlooks

🔺 USD: Futures pricing implies roughly 95% odds of a 25 bp cut on Oct 29, and markets are toying with a second move by December. In a low-vol tape the dollar tends to struggle when the curve re-steepens and growth expectations wobble. With the 2s10s near +50–60 bp and ISM Services the only first-tier print likely to land near term, sensitivity is high. DXY support 97.80, resistance 98.80 then 99.20. Nuance, a clean Washington resolution plus a firm ISM-services bounce could squeeze the dollar, but the burden of proof sits with stronger data.

🔺 EUR: Lower energy prices are a quiet tailwind and options skew is modestly EUR-positive as realized vol compresses. The flash HICP mix near 2.2% headline supports an ECB hold this month, so spot trades the U.S. rates story more than Eurozone idiosyncrasies. EURUSD intraday 1.1700–1.1750; a close above 1.1750 opens 1.1810, with 1.1650 as support.

⚖️ GBP: Sterling is range-bound with the BoE effectively sidelined and a light domestic slate. Pricing implies only a small chance of additional easing into year-end, so GBP trades as a beta on U.S. yields and global risk. 1.3400 support, 1.3600 resistance. A daily close above 1.3600 would target 1.3720.

🔻 CAD: Oil softness keeps a lid on CAD as the weekend OPEC+ meeting could quicken the supply unwind beyond the 137k bpd October step. Without Brent reclaiming the low-70s, rallies should fade. USDCAD support 1.3850, resistance 1.3950 and 1.4000.

🔺 JPY: The policy gap may narrow. Markets hold about 50–60% odds of a BoJ hike at month-end, while USDJPY remains highly sensitive to U.S. front-end yields and intervention risk near 150. Resistance 148.80 and 150.00, support 147.50 then 146.50.

⚖️ AUD: The RBA held 3.60% and softer energy supports a contained up-channel as global risk firms. 0.6500 support, 0.6670 resistance; a sustained break above 0.6670 targets 0.6750.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Bid on lower real-rate expectations and shutdown uncertainty. Prices are holding near records around the high-$3,800s.

🛢 Oil: Bearish skew into the weekend as OPEC+ considers a faster November increase. Energy FX underperforms unless timespreads firm and Brent retakes the low-70s.

📈 Stocks: AI leadership plus cut-pricing keeps the risk tone resilient despite the blackout. Growth and quality outperform cyclicals unless ISM-services and front-end yields rebound together.

Playbook

• Today: ISM Services at 10:00 ET is the pivotal print while federal data are delayed.

• Weekend: OPEC+ meets Sunday Oct 5 to discuss a larger November hike.

• Into month-end: BoJ hike odds stay elevated, keeping USDJPY two-way and sensitive to U.S. front-end drift.