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Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed to mildly risk-on. Low FX volatility and persistent carry demand dominate while attention pivots to Thursday’s US CPI and a modestly positive yield curve that takes the edge off broad dollar strength.
Currency Outlooks
🔻 USD: Futures price roughly a two-thirds chance of a December Fed cut, which caps sustained dollar rallies into CPI. Core CPI for October is expected at +0.2 percent month on month, a pace that would reinforce a drift lower in the front end. The 10-year sits near 4.08 to 4.13 percent and the 2-year near 3.56 to 3.58 percent, leaving the 2s10s spread around +50 to +55 basis points and supportive for risk. Tactically, fade DXY pushes toward the top of its recent range while that curve remains gently positive. Nuance: an upside CPI surprise would pull the front end up and revive the dollar bid quickly.
🔺 EUR: The euro benefits when USD carry appeal eases and risk holds steady. Euro area inflation runs near 2.1 percent year on year, which lets the ECB stay patient while markets trade the US leg. Buy dips toward 1.1515 to 1.1530 with resistance at 1.1620 then 1.1680. A benign US CPI print would unlock topside extension.
🔻 GBP: UK wage growth is cooling at the margin and unemployment has edged up, keeping December BoE easing in play. OIS pricing implies a meaningful chance of a 25 basis point cut next month after last week’s 5–4 hold at 4.00 percent. Trade GBPUSD between 1.3050 support and 1.3200 resistance; EURGBP bias is modestly higher while cut odds stay elevated.
⚖️ CAD: Oil’s refined-product strength helps CAD on the margin while US rates still set the tone. Fade USDCAD strength into 1.4100 while Brent holds the mid-60s and WTI the low-60s. First support sits near 1.3950.
🔻 CHF: Swiss CPI is 0.1 percent year on year and the SNB policy rate is 0 percent, leaving differentials CHF-negative when risk is calm. EURCHF can grind higher toward 0.9350 while USDCHF tracks the broad dollar. A risk wobble would still flip CHF bid quickly.
🔻 JPY: USDJPY is hovering in the mid-154s with intervention risk rising into 155 as officials keep up verbal warnings. The policy gap still leans USD-supportive unless US yields fall on softer CPI. Trade the 153.5 to 155.0 band with a sell-rallies bias if the front end eases.
⚖️ AUD: The RBA held at 3.60 percent and signalled patience. AUD trades global risk and the USD leg more than local data near term. Use 0.6500 as first demand and 0.6620 as supply into US CPI.
🔻 NZD: The RBNZ cut the OCR 50 bp to 2.50 percent and remains open to further easing, leaving rate spreads soft versus USD and AUD. Fade NZDUSD rips toward 0.5900 unless US CPI underwhelms. Watch EURNZD topside while NZ policy stays dovish.
Conclusion
🪙 Gold: Supported into CPI by capped real yields and a softer dollar bias. A downside US inflation surprise would add fuel; a beat would likely cap rallies.
🛢 Oil: Refined-product cracks are doing the heavy lifting with middle distillates leading on supply concerns linked to refinery outages and sanctions. This props up CAD on strong sessions despite a broadly range-bound macro tape.
📈 Stocks: The gently positive 2s10s curve and a soft-landing CPI consensus keep equities constructive on dips. A hot print would pressure duration-sensitive growth pockets first.
₿ Crypto: BTC sits near 103.9k and ETH around 3.46k, consolidating inside recent ranges. For BTC, intraday support is roughly 102.5k with resistance near 105.5k. A soft CPI could break the topside while a beat risks a quick slide toward 100k.
Week-Ahead Playbook
• Thursday: US CPI. Consensus looks for Core CPI at +0.2 percent month on month. A miss lower reinforces USD downside and supports EUR, AUD, and risk. A beat lifts the front end and USD, with USDJPY most sensitive.
🧠 Carry stays king as CPI looms and oil firms
Published: 11/12/2025