Good morning traders from a cool but bright IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting around 5°C under mostly sunny skies and warming toward the mid-teens later, so settle in with a fresh coffee as we work through a Wednesday market that still trusts the ceasefire only halfway.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is mixed but cautiously constructive. U.S. stock futures are a little firmer, oil is off the recent panic highs, and the latest ceasefire extension has stopped a full return to risk-off, but the dollar is still finding support because traders remain doubtful that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen cleanly any time soon.
The bigger macro issue is that relief on headlines is running ahead of relief in the real economy. March U.S. retail sales rose 1.7%, helped heavily by gasoline receipts, while Kevin Warsh’s Senate testimony leaned reform-minded and did not offer markets any easy rate-cut comfort, so yields and the dollar still have a real floor even as risk sentiment steadies.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains central because the market is still trading energy logistics, not just diplomatic language. The ceasefire extension has helped sentiment, but Hormuz remains shut, Iranian port restrictions are still in place, and that is enough to keep Brent near $100 rather than back at pre-shock levels.
Brent in the broad $98 to $100 area is the clearest market reference today. That zone is low enough to reduce the most extreme stagflation fear, but still high enough to keep central banks cautious, support the dollar against energy importers, and stop Europe from getting a clean reset. Assumption: markets are pricing a diplomatic pause, not a full normalization of tanker flows.
Macro Calendar
Today
- UK March CPI is due today, and it matters because sterling is still trading the tension between stickier inflation and a softer labour backdrop.
- The European Commission is publishing an energy-response package today, which matters for EUR because the market wants to see how Europe plans to cushion another imported energy shock.
- U.S. macro data is light after yesterday’s strong retail-sales print, so markets are likely to trade the dollar through oil, yields, and ceasefire credibility more than through fresh domestic releases.
- Tesla reports after the U.S. close, and that matters for broader risk sentiment because big-tech and AI-linked earnings are still doing a lot of the work behind equity resilience.
The rest of this week
- Thursday’s flash PMIs across Australia, Japan, the euro area, the UK, and the U.S. are likely the week’s broadest growth test for FX and macro.
- Friday brings Japan’s March CPI, which matters because USDJPY is still close enough to the 160 area that every inflation signal feeds into BOJ and intervention expectations.
- Friday also brings UK retail sales, which should help show whether higher fuel costs are now biting more clearly into household demand.
⚖️ USD - Dollar supported, but not in a fresh panic bid
The dollar still has support, but it is no longer running on pure fear. Stronger U.S. retail sales, a still-cautious Fed backdrop, and oil that remains well above pre-war levels all argue for a firmer dollar floor than markets had late last week. At the same time, the ceasefire extension has reduced the need for a full haven rush, which is why the move higher has been contained rather than explosive. The front end of the U.S. curve remains the key driver because the market still cares more about inflation spillovers than about mild growth cooling. Risks stay mildly tilted toward dollar firmness if oil stays elevated and Thursday’s PMIs do not crack. What would change that bias is clearer Hormuz progress paired with softer activity and lower yields.
⚖️ EUR - Euro holding up, but still exposed to the energy channel
The euro is staying relatively firm around the mid-1.17s, but that is still more about the dollar not breaking out than about Europe suddenly looking comfortable. Europe remains one of the clearest losers if imported energy costs stay high, and the growth side of the story is already fragile enough that sentiment data has been deteriorating again. Today’s energy package matters because the market wants evidence that Europe can soften the shock without making the inflation problem worse. The 1.17 to 1.18 zone in EURUSD remains the main area markets are watching. The bias stays mixed, and it would turn softer quickly if oil pushes back through the recent highs or if Thursday’s PMIs disappoint.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling still caught between inflation and softer jobs
Sterling has some rate support, but it is not a clean upside story. UK wage growth slowed only modestly to 3.6%, unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.9% for awkward reasons rather than strong hiring, and the Bank of England still looks more worried about inflation than comfortable about growth. That leaves today’s CPI as the real pivot for the pound. GBPUSD in the 1.35 area keeps the 1.34 to 1.36 zone as the main reference range. Risks are mixed, with slightly better support than the euro if inflation stays sticky, but not enough to ignore the softer labour backdrop.
⚖️ CAD - Loonie still split between oil support and USD pressure
CAD still has one of the messier setups in G10. Higher oil should help, but the loonie is also dealing with a firmer U.S. dollar, a cautious global tone, and a domestic inflation backdrop that is heating through fuel more than through a broad growth rebound. USDCAD had strengthened into the mid-1.36s when peace hopes were stronger, and the 1.36 to 1.38 zone still looks like the practical market area to watch. That leaves the near-term tilt mixed rather than cleanly bullish for CAD. The tone improves only if oil holds firm without dragging risk appetite lower at the same time.
🔻 CHF - Franc may give back some haven premium if calm holds
The franc still has defensive appeal, but near-term risks lean slightly toward a softer CHF while markets keep rewarding even partial de-escalation. Switzerland’s inflation backdrop remains much calmer than the euro area’s, and policymakers remain more concerned about excessive franc strength than about needing tighter policy. That means CHF tends to lose some edge when oil settles and the dollar does not break higher. EURCHF remains the cleaner lens here because the euro side still carries the bigger energy burden. This softer-CHF view would reverse quickly if the ceasefire extension starts to look unworkable.
⚖️ JPY - Yen still trapped between lower panic and policy caution
JPY remains difficult to frame cleanly. The dollar is no longer surging, which helps, but USDJPY near the 159 area still leaves the pair close enough to 160 for intervention risk to stay in the conversation. At the same time, lower immediate panic is reducing haven demand just as the BOJ remains cautious about tightening into an energy-driven shock. That leaves the yen with support from a less aggressive dollar move, but not a strong standalone bullish case. The near-term picture stays mixed, with the 159 to 160 zone still the main attention area markets watch.
🔺 AUD - Aussie still benefits when markets lean toward diplomacy
AUD is still behaving like a classic risk and China-sensitive currency, but with better domestic rate support than many peers. The currency has held up even with the dollar steadier, which tells you markets are still willing to reward the idea that the worst energy panic may stay contained. The broad 0.71 area remains the main reference zone in AUDUSD, and the tilt stays mildly constructive while ceasefire headlines do not deteriorate.
🔺 NZD - Kiwi has a cleaner policy story than most high-beta peers
NZD still has support from both the broader risk mood and its domestic inflation backdrop. First-quarter inflation held at 3.1%, which keeps the possibility of a firmer RBNZ path alive and gives the kiwi a more specific policy anchor than most high-beta currencies currently have. That helps keep NZDUSD centered around the 0.59 area. The constructive tone holds while the dollar stays contained and oil does not turn into a full risk-off shock again.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,755, rebounding from Monday’s softer levels but still below the stronger rebound zone seen earlier this month. The main drivers are lower oil and a softer inflation scare first, then a steadier dollar and real-yield backdrop. Watch next whether markets keep easing the war premium or decide Brent near $100 is still too high for comfort. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $77.84 and recovering with gold, but it is also getting help from a slightly better cyclical mood. The main drivers are the same softer-dollar and easier-yields story, with industrial demand expectations giving silver a little more upside when growth fear fades. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $98.27 after touching $99.38 earlier, so the market is still trading near the top of its recent range even as outright panic eases. The main drivers are ceasefire credibility, ongoing Hormuz disruption, and tighter physical balances after a large U.S. inventory draw. Watch next whether actual shipping access improves, because headlines alone are not enough to normalize this market. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: U.S. stock futures are modestly firmer after fresh highs, while Japan’s Nikkei has hit another record and European futures are a touch softer. The main drivers are the ceasefire extension, oil staying below the worst spike zone, and continued faith that heavy earnings can keep the risk trade alive. Watch next tonight’s Tesla results and tomorrow’s PMIs, because equities still need growth and margin confidence to hold these levels. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $77,512, near the top of today’s $74,900 to $77,680 range, so volatility is active but still orderly. The main drivers remain liquidity expectations, yields, and broad risk appetite, which means crypto is still behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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