Good morning traders from a cool but sunlit IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 7°C under mostly sunny skies and warming toward 19°C later, so settle in with a fresh coffee as we walk through today’s markets.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is risk-on, but carefully so. The two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran has knocked Brent below $100, lifted equities, pulled yields lower, and pushed the dollar to a one-month low as markets reopen the door to a late-2026 Fed cut.
But this does not look like a full all-clear. Physical oil markets remain strained, tanker flows and infrastructure are still impaired, and energy prices may stay above pre-war norms even if the Strait of Hormuz stays open.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics stays central because this is a two-week bridge, not a final peace deal. Brent in the $92 to $95 area is now the key macro reference: low enough to ease the immediate inflation scare, but still high enough that central banks cannot dismiss the energy shock as finished.
Assumption: markets keep rewarding relief today, but they will fade that move quickly if shipping access disappoints or if Friday’s Pakistan talks fail to build toward something more durable.
Macro Calendar
Today
- The RBNZ held the OCR at 2.25% overnight and said decisive hikes would be needed if inflation expectations fail to stay anchored, which gives NZD a firmer rates backdrop than it had a week ago.
- FOMC minutes from the March 17-18 meeting land at 2:00 p.m. ET, and markets will want to know how worried the Fed already was about energy-driven inflation before this latest relief rally.
- Euro area February retail sales and March construction PMIs matter because Europe still needs evidence that domestic demand can absorb a still-costly energy backdrop.
- Ceasefire headlines remain a live market driver all day because FX, oil, and rates are still trading the peace path as much as the data.
The rest of this week
- Thursday’s U.S. Personal Income and Outlays release, including February PCE, matters because it shows how sticky underlying price pressure was before the latest oil swing.
- Friday’s U.S. CPI for March is the week’s main macro event, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET, and it is the clearest test of whether the inflation problem is still mostly fuel or already broader.
- Friday’s Pakistan talks on Hormuz and the broader conflict matter because this relief rally still needs real diplomatic follow-through, not just a pause.
🔻 USD - Dollar loses haven premium, but not its floor
The dollar is on the back foot because the ceasefire has removed part of the panic bid that carried it higher last week. Lower oil and lower yields have also made the front end of the U.S. curve a little less threatening, which is why markets have reopened the chance of a Fed cut later this year. Today’s minutes, then Thursday’s PCE and Friday’s CPI, now matter more than pure headline stress. Risks lean toward further USD softness if inflation data behaves and the ceasefire holds. What would change that bias is a fast rebound in oil or any sign that supply damage is still feeding into prices more aggressively than markets now expect.
🔺 EUR - Euro gets relief, but the bigger energy issue has not gone away
The euro is getting breathing room because lower oil eases the pressure on Europe’s growth outlook and the dollar is softer, helping EURUSD push into the mid-1.16s. But the underlying story is still delicate: euro zone growth slowed to a nine-month low in March, while headline inflation is back at 2.5% and the ECB is still warning that persistent energy disruption could force a stricter response. Markets are likely to keep watching the 1.16 to 1.17 zone in EURUSD as the near-term barometer. The bias stays constructive while oil remains off the highs, but it weakens quickly if the ceasefire frays and Europe’s energy vulnerability comes back to the front.
🔺 GBP - Sterling firmer, though not in a clean straight line
Sterling has regained ground with the broader risk bounce and the softer dollar, pushing back toward the $1.34 area. The Bank of England still faces an awkward mix of rising price expectations, softer wage expectations, and a services sector that is losing momentum under higher cost pressure, so GBP is not trading with a fully clean domestic story. That leaves the 1.33 to 1.34 area as the near-term reference zone in GBPUSD, with markets still alert to whether the UK looks more resilient than Europe or just slightly less exposed. Risks lean modestly higher while the dollar is soft, but the upside would lose momentum if UK growth concerns take center stage again.
⚖️ CAD - Loonie split between weaker USD and weaker oil
CAD still has one of the messier setups in G10. A softer dollar and better risk sentiment should help, but Brent falling sharply also removes one of the loonie’s usual supports, and Canada’s recent domestic data has not been strong enough to offset that. USDCAD was trading around 1.3900 before the ceasefire move, and the broader 1.38 to 1.39 zone still looks like the key reference area. Near-term risks are mixed, with the balance hinging on whether markets trade today as a weaker-dollar story or a weaker-oil story.
🔻 CHF - Franc likely to give back some haven premium
The franc looks more likely to soften in the near term, especially against Europe, if the ceasefire holds and risk appetite continues to improve. Swiss inflation is only 0.3%, well below the euro area’s pace, and the SNB is still more focused on avoiding excessive franc strength than on needing tighter policy. That makes EURCHF the cleaner lens today, while USDCHF stays more mixed because both sides have defensive characteristics when headlines turn. Near-term risks lean toward a weaker CHF, but that view would reverse quickly if the truce starts to wobble.
⚖️ JPY - Lower oil helps, but risk-on sentiment caps the rebound
The yen has recovered into the 158s against the dollar, and that makes sense because lower oil and lower U.S. yields are both supportive for Japan’s currency. At the same time, a cleaner risk backdrop reduces pure haven demand for JPY, so this is not automatically the start of a one-way yen recovery. Intervention risk has cooled a little with USDJPY off the 160 area, but officials are still highly sensitive to renewed volatility and the BOJ still faces a difficult inflation-versus-growth trade-off. That leaves JPY looking more balanced this week, with lower oil helping and broader risk appetite capping the move.
🔺 AUD - Aussie is finally getting paid for the risk bounce
AUD is behaving like a classic relief-rally currency today. The softer dollar, lower oil, and stronger equity mood have helped AUDUSD jump toward 0.705, and Australia’s still-firm rate backdrop remains supportive in the background. The tilt stays positive while the market keeps rewarding de-escalation, with the 0.70 to 0.71 area now the zone markets watch.
🔺 NZD - Kiwi boosted by both the global mood and the RBNZ tone
NZD has its own story as well as the broad risk rally. The RBNZ left rates at 2.25% but made it clear that timely hikes would be needed if inflation pressures intensify, and that gave the kiwi an extra lift on top of the weaker dollar backdrop. NZDUSD around 0.582 to 0.583 leaves the pair looking stronger into the back half of the week, though it still depends on global sentiment holding up. The current bias stays constructive unless the ceasefire weakens or U.S. inflation data revives the dollar.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,812, near a three-week high and rebounding after the late-March washout. The main drivers are lower yields and a softer dollar first, with ceasefire fragility still leaving some haven demand in the mix. Watch next today’s Fed minutes, because a fresh drop in yields would matter more than generic relief alone. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is around $76.5 and is rebounding even faster than gold, putting the $80 to $81 area back on the market’s radar. The main drivers are the softer dollar and easier yield pressure, while better risk appetite is helping silver behave as both a precious metal and an industrial one. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $95 after touching as low as $91.70, a violent reversal from Tuesday’s close near $109 and last week’s spike near $119.50. The first drivers are the ceasefire and the prospect of Hormuz reopening, but physical supply chains, tanker availability, and damaged infrastructure still argue against a quick return to pre-war pricing. Watch next whether actual flows improve, not just the headlines. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: Asia is sharply higher, with Japan’s Nikkei up 5%, and U.S. and European futures are pointing to a strong open after the ceasefire news. The main drivers are lower oil and lower rate fear, but the rally still depends on whether the truce holds and whether inflation pressure really keeps easing into Friday’s CPI. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $71,614, trading today between roughly $67,764 and $72,519, so volatility is lively but still orderly inside the broader relief rally. The main drivers remain liquidity, yields, and risk appetite, with crypto benefiting from the weaker dollar and better market mood. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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