IntelliTrade

Good morning traders from a cool but bright IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting around 8°C under mostly sunny skies before thicker cloud builds later, so grab the coffee and settle in for a Friday that puts inflation, oil, and fragile geopolitics back on center stage.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Market mood is mixed and cautious. The dollar is heading for a notable weekly drop as the worst tail-risk around the Iran conflict has eased, but the relief trade is already losing momentum because the ceasefire looks strained and shipping through Hormuz is still far from normal.

The main macro tension is simple: oil has come off the panic highs, but not enough to remove inflation risk, and today’s U.S. CPI now matters more because markets want to know whether the March energy shock was only fuel or the start of something broader. That is why equities are still firmer on the week while yields and the dollar remain capable of snapping back if the data runs hot.

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics remains central because the market is still trading the energy channel first. The ceasefire has reduced the immediate fear of a worst-case escalation, but Israel-Lebanon tensions are testing the agreement, and Washington is openly accusing Tehran of falling short on Hormuz access.

Brent in the broad $96 to $97 area is the key macro reference today. That is far below this week’s spike zone, but still high enough to keep inflation worries alive, especially while shipping traffic remains well below normal and physical oil markets stay tight. Assumption: today’s risk tone holds only if the ceasefire survives the weekend talks and marine traffic improves more clearly than it has so far.

Macro Calendar

Today

U.S. March CPI is due at 8:30 a.m. ET, with markets looking for a sharp headline jump after the oil shock. This is the key event because it will shape how much room the Fed still has to stay patient.
Canada’s March Labour Force Survey is also due today, and that matters because CAD is still being pulled between softer oil, softer USD, and a mixed domestic backdrop.
The University of Michigan’s preliminary April sentiment release lands at 10:00 a.m. ET. In this environment, inflation expectations inside that survey matter almost as much as the headline sentiment number.
Weekend U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad are already shaping positioning today, because traders know Monday’s open will depend heavily on whether diplomacy starts to stabilize shipping and energy flows.

The week ahead

Tuesday brings Singapore’s monetary policy statement and the U.S. March PPI report. That combination matters because both Asia FX and U.S. rates are still highly sensitive to energy-led inflation pressure.
Wednesday’s U.S. import and export price data matter because markets want to see whether energy and trade-related price pressure is spreading more widely into the pipeline.
Thursday’s U.S. industrial production release matters because it is one of the first clean checks on whether higher energy costs are starting to bite more clearly into activity.
Through next week, every market will still be trading Hormuz logistics as much as scheduled data. If flows normalize, the inflation shock can cool faster. If not, the dollar and oil likely keep a firmer floor.

⚖️ USD - Dollar softer, but CPI can still rebuild support

The dollar has lost the clean haven premium it carried at the height of the oil shock, and that is why it is heading for its biggest weekly drop since January. But the downside is not clean, because the U.S. still looks less exposed than Europe or Japan to energy stress, and Thursday’s PCE plus steady jobless claims kept the Fed story from turning decisively dovish. Today’s CPI is the big pivot, because a hot print would quickly bring yield support back into the picture. The curve still looks more sensitive to inflation than to modest growth cooling. Risks are mixed today, but the dollar floor likely holds better than it did earlier in the week if CPI surprises on the high side or weekend talks disappoint. What would weaken that bias further is a softer inflation print paired with clearer progress on Hormuz.

🔺 EUR - Euro stronger, but still living off dollar weakness

The euro has broken above a major technical area and is trading near $1.1694, which gives it a firmer near-term tone than it had a week ago. But this is still more about the dollar backing off than about Europe suddenly looking comfortable, because the euro area remains more exposed to imported energy stress and weaker growth if oil turns higher again. The ECB backdrop is still awkward: higher headline inflation risk and softer demand can coexist for a while, which keeps policy uncertainty elevated. Markets are likely to keep watching the 1.16 to 1.17 zone in EURUSD as the main reference area. The bias stays constructive while oil remains off the highs and the dollar stays offered, but that constructive tone weakens quickly if the ceasefire frays.

⚖️ GBP - Sterling firmer, but still highly headline-sensitive

Sterling has rallied with the broader softer-dollar move and is trading above its 200-day moving average near $1.3424. Even so, the pound still looks more like a headline-driven currency than a clean domestic macro winner, because UK rate support is being balanced against a softer growth backdrop and the same imported energy problem facing Europe. The inflation and wage debate still matters for the Bank of England, but right now geopolitical risk is the bigger day-to-day driver. Markets will keep watching the 1.33 to 1.35 zone in GBPUSD. Risks are mixed, with mild upside if the dollar stays soft, but not much room for a clean break higher if oil firms again.

⚖️ CAD - Loonie still caught between weaker USD and weaker oil

CAD remains one of the messiest G10 stories. The softer U.S. dollar has helped, but the loonie does not get a full benefit when oil is falling from panic highs and Canada’s own growth picture still looks uneven. USDCAD is still best framed through the 1.38 to 1.39 zone, especially with today’s labor report due. A firmer domestic jobs print would help the currency hold onto recent gains, but the broader move still depends on whether markets treat the current backdrop as a weaker-dollar story or a still-fragile oil story.

🔻 CHF - Franc likely to keep giving back some haven premium

The franc no longer has the same urgency behind it that it had when oil and war fears were both accelerating. As long as the ceasefire holds loosely together, CHF is more likely to soften against European currencies than strengthen further, because the immediate safe-haven scramble has cooled and Swiss inflation remains low. USDCHF is a more mixed lens because the dollar has also lost some defensive appeal. Near-term risks lean toward a weaker CHF, though that would reverse quickly if ceasefire stress turns back into a broader flight to safety.

⚖️ JPY - Yen steadier, but still not a clean haven winner

The yen has lifted off the worst levels, but it still does not look like a clean defensive winner. USDJPY is around 159.2, which is better than the recent stress zone, yet the yen is still being sold on crosses and remains weighed down by Japan’s long-running yield disadvantage and sensitivity to energy prices. Lower oil helps, but only up to a point. The market will keep treating the 159 to 160 area as the main zone that draws attention. Near-term risks look mixed, with a steadier yen if oil cools further, but not a convincing one-way recovery yet.

🔺 AUD - Aussie still behaving like a classic risk proxy

AUD is just above $0.70 and is on course for a weekly rise of nearly 3% against the dollar. That tells you it is still trading primarily as a relief-rally and risk-sensitive currency rather than a pure rates story. The 0.70 to 0.71 zone is the key reference area, and the positive tilt holds while ceasefire hopes survive and the dollar stays offered.

🔺 NZD - Kiwi has the cleaner upside if the risk mood holds

NZD is around $0.5847 and, like AUD, is benefiting from the weaker dollar and broader risk recovery. It also still has some support from this week’s firmer domestic policy tone, which gives it a slightly more specific story than the Aussie. That leaves the 0.58 area as the main zone markets watch in NZDUSD. The constructive bias stays intact if today’s CPI does not reignite the dollar.

Cross-asset wrap

🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,764.54, steady on the day and up 1.8% on the week, though still well below the pre-war peak zone. The main drivers are rate-cut expectations and real yields first, with geopolitical uncertainty still offering support at the margin. Watch next today’s CPI, because a softer inflation print would likely help gold more than another generic risk wobble. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $76.03 and is outperforming gold on the week, which tells you the market is also pricing a better risk backdrop, not just safe-haven demand. The main drivers are the softer dollar, easier rate pressure, and a tentative improvement in cyclical sentiment. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $96.83, far below this week’s panic highs near $119.50 but still high enough to keep inflation pressure alive. The first drivers are still Hormuz access and shipping risk, while physical supply tightness is preventing futures from fully relaxing. Watch next the weekend talks and whether tanker flows improve in reality, not just in headlines. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
📈 Stocks: Asia is firmer, with MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan up 0.5% and the Nikkei up 1.5%, while S&P 500 futures are roughly flat after Thursday’s 0.6% gain in the cash index. The main drivers are lingering ceasefire relief, lower oil than the peak, and caution ahead of CPI and weekend diplomacy. Watch next whether today’s inflation data lets the relief rally broaden or forces markets back into defense. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $71,831, trading between roughly $70,568 and $72,944 today, so volatility is active but still orderly. The main drivers remain liquidity expectations, yields, and broad risk appetite, which keeps crypto behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a pure geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]

This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.

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