← Back to posts🧠Dollar drifts as delayed data and tech jitters steer markets

🧠Dollar drifts as delayed data and tech jitters steer markets

Published: 2/9/2026

Good morning traders from a low-cloud, coffee-mandatory IntelliTrade desk. It is a chilly 3°C with a blanket of grey over the city and temperatures drifting toward 7°C this afternoon, which fits the mood on screens: not a storm, but plenty of low-visibility turbulence in data, tech and metals.



Overall Market Sentiment



The tone is cautious and slightly risk off, with the dollar off its highs but still firm in the background. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading around 97.4–97.5, down for a second session after last week’s rebound, yet still about 1.5 points above the late-January low and roughly 10 percent weaker than a year ago.


Gold is stabilising after the early-February crash. International spot is oscillating near 5,000 dollars per ounce, with local benchmarks showing gold up roughly 1.5–2 percent today, reflecting bargain-hunting but also very elevated intraday volatility that could persist through this week’s US data.Silver has rebounded toward the low 80s in dollar terms after extreme swings, while industrial metals like copper are trying to build a floor after tagging downside targets late last week.


Oil is softer but not collapsing. Brent futures trade near 67.5 dollars, down from the recent 70+ spike as news of US–Iran talks in Oman and easing immediate tension has chipped away at the war premium.Equities are mixed: Wall Street has seen tech and software under pressure on AI disruption worries, while more cyclical and value names have held up better. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 jumped as much as 5 percent after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi secured a landslide victory that investors read as a mandate for continued pro-growth policies.


Crypto is behaving like the high-beta tail of this macro story. Bitcoin has extended its pullback, with traders openly discussing the possibility of a test toward 50,000 as broader risk appetite wobbles and real yields stay elevated.





Geopolitics and policy



On geopolitics, the key pressure valve remains the US–Iran channel. Diplomatic talks in Oman have cooled the most acute supply fears, which is why Brent has settled back into the high 60s rather than launching another leg higher. Markets are treating this as a fragile truce: a supportive backdrop for CAD and inflation expectations, but far from a full clearance of the risk premium.


On policy, central banks are in a holding pattern except in Australia:


  • The ECB kept its deposit rate at 2.0 percent last week and reiterated that inflation is expected to stabilise around the 2 percent target, which leaves the euro area in a self-described “good place” with low but resilient growth.
  • The Bank of England also held at 3.75 percent, but the 5–4 split vote in favour of a cut has clearly tilted expectations toward earlier easing and weighed on sterling.
  • The RBA is the outlier: it raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85 percent on February 3, the first hike in more than two years, citing persistent inflation pressures and stronger-than-expected demand, and signalling that further tightening cannot be ruled out.



In the US, the dominant story is delayed data under a new Fed regime. The partial government shutdown has pushed the January jobs report to Wednesday, February 11, and the January CPI release to Friday, February 13, turning this week into a compressed macro test of how the Warsh Fed might actually execute on a higher-for-longer stance.





Today and the rest of this week




Today, Monday



  • FX is trading quietly in ranges, with DXY drifting around 97.4–97.5 as traders square positions ahead of the US data cluster later in the week.
  • EURUSD is nudging higher near 1.186, helped by the softer dollar and the perception that the ECB will not rush to cut while inflation sits close to target.
  • GBPUSD is licking its wounds just above the mid 1.35s, with speculative accounts reportedly adding downside protection after the dovish BoE vote and rising political noise around Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
  • USDCAD is stable in the 1.36 area after mixed Canadian jobs data and the modest uptick in oil, while USDCHF trades near 0.773, underscoring a still-strong franc.




The rest of the week



  • United States:
  • Wednesday brings the delayed January Employment Situation. Softening in payrolls, hours or wages would challenge the recent dollar resilience and could help metals and higher beta FX, while another robust print would validate the view that the economy can withstand tighter policy for longer.
  • Friday’s January CPI is the second pillar. A sticky core print would keep real yields elevated and weigh on gold and crypto, while a clear downshift would give markets room to reprice in more cuts for 2026.

  • Eurozone and UK:
  • With the ECB and BoE decisions now behind us, focus shifts toward PMIs, industrial production and any follow-up communication that could clarify how many cuts are plausible this year. The ECB remains relaxed, while BoE commentary points to a clear bias toward easing once inflation is more comfortably anchored around 2 percent.

  • Asia-Pacific:
  • In Japan, the weekend election landslide for Prime Minister Takaichi gave local equities a strong boost and keeps the bias toward fiscal support and gradual normalisation rather than aggressive tightening. That combination tends to keep the yen on the weaker side, especially if US yields hold up.
  • In Australia, markets will parse follow-up RBA speeches and local data to gauge whether the 3.85 percent cash rate is a single adjustment or the start of a mini tightening cycle.
  • In New Zealand, softer labour data and the upcoming February 18 RBNZ meeting keep expectations of further tightening contained, which makes NZD sensitive to any global risk shifts triggered by US data.






Currency outlooks




⚖️ USD – Softer, but still central to this week’s story



The dollar has eased slightly, with DXY around 97.4, its second consecutive daily dip after a rebound sparked by the Warsh nomination and stronger US data in late January. Futures pricing still points to a later and shallower easing cycle compared with what markets expected at the turn of the year, but speculative positioning in futures has shifted further against the dollar, a sign that many macro funds see scope for renewed weakness once the data shock passes.


The complication is the data blackout effect. Because the January jobs and CPI reports have been delayed, traders have spent almost two weeks trading on expectations rather than facts. That makes Wednesday and Friday unusually important: strong labour and sticky inflation would reinforce higher-for-longer and likely push DXY back toward 98, while a clear cooling would validate the recent pullback and encourage renewed diversification into gold, EM and higher beta FX.


For the next few sessions, risks for USD look broadly balanced. The 97.0 area is watched as first support on DXY, while 98.0–98.5 is the initial resistance band that would need a stronger-than-expected data run to break decisively.





⚖️ EUR – Supported by ECB patience, capped by modest growth



EURUSD is trading near 1.186, slightly firmer on the day and near the upper end of its one-week range, helped by the gentle dollar pullback and an ECB that is in no hurry to cut with inflation already close to target.


The central bank kept its key rates unchanged last week and repeated that inflation should stabilise around 2 percent over the medium term, while growth is described as modest but resilient, supported by low unemployment and public investment. This combination argues against early cuts, but it is not strong enough to justify an aggressive push for euro strength, especially as speculative positioning is already quite constructive.


For this week, EUR risks versus USD are mixed. If US data undershoot and global risk appetite improves, EURUSD can probe into the 1.19–1.20 zone again. On the other hand, upside surprises in US jobs or CPI would likely see a drift back toward the 1.17–1.18 support band that has repeatedly contained corrections since mid-January.





🔻 GBP – BoE dovish split and UK politics keep a bearish tilt



Sterling is on the defensive. GBPUSD has retreated to the mid-1.35s, after failing to hold above 1.38 late last month and dropping sharply when the BoE revealed that four out of nine MPC members already favoured a cut from 3.75 to 3.5 percent.Hedge funds are reportedly ramping up downside options strategies as political uncertainty around Prime Minister Keir Starmer adds another layer of risk.


With growth forecasts downgraded and unemployment projected to rise, the UK looks more like a pre-cut story than one that can sustain a much stronger currency. Over the next few sessions, risks for GBP versus USD lean to the downside. Markets are watching 1.35 as near support, with the 1.37–1.38 region as the resistance zone where rallies have repeatedly stalled and where many desks expect selling interest to reappear.





⚖️ CAD – Oil and US data leave the loonie broadly range-bound



USDCAD trades around 1.36–1.37, with spot quotes near 1.365, as the Canadian dollar digests mixed domestic employment figures, a modest rebound in oil and the same US data uncertainty affecting other majors.


Oil remains an important, but not dominant, driver. Brent near 67.5 dollars and WTI in the mid 60s are still supportive for Canada’s terms of trade, yet the direction has turned slightly negative over the past two weeks as Middle East tensions eased. The Bank of Canada, with inflation near target, has room to stay patient, so external risk, oil and US data are doing most of the work on CAD.


For this week, CAD risks versus USD look neutral. Softer US data and firmer crude would favour a move back toward 1.35, while stronger US numbers or another leg lower in oil could pull USDCAD into the 1.37–1.38 zone that marked the highs in late January.





🔺 CHF – Franc stays firm as quiet haven and rate differentials bite



The Swiss franc remains strong, with USDCHF around 0.773, close to the lower end of this year’s range. Over the past month, CHF has gained just over 3 percent against the dollar, part of a broader trend of franc strength supported by low domestic inflation and a central bank that is comfortable using FX as a stabiliser.


With European risk relatively contained and US yields no longer surging, the franc is functioning as a quiet hedge rather than a panic trade. For the coming days, risks for CHF versus USD lean slightly toward further appreciation, especially if US data disappoint or if equity volatility stays elevated. Market participants are watching 0.77 as immediate support for USDCHF and the 0.79–0.80 band as resistance that would likely require a broader dollar upswing to break.





🔻 JPY – Election optimism and yield gap keep yen under pressure



The yen remains soft. USDJPY is trading around 156.5–157.0, near the top of its recent range, as investors price a combination of a wide rate gap versus the US and a decisive election victory for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, which markets interpret as a green light for continued fiscal support and gradual, not aggressive, monetary normalisation.


The Bank of Japan policy rate around 0.75 percent keeps carry trades attractive, and recent commentary has not signalled an imminent jump to restrictive territory. At the same time, repeated tests of the high 150s have increased the risk of verbal or actual intervention, which is why intraday swings can be sharp when USDJPY approaches the 157–160 area.


In the near term, risks for JPY still lean toward weakness, but with an asymmetric profile. A strong US data run could see further upside tests in USDJPY, while any genuine risk-off shock or clear intervention signal could trigger a rapid drop back toward the low 150s.





🔺 AUD – RBA hike anchors Aussie above 0.70



The Australian dollar is holding up well given the mixed risk backdrop. AUDUSD trades just above 0.70, with options and spot flows both reflecting the impact of the RBA’s February 3 hike to 3.85 percent and guidance that further tightening is possible if inflation remains too high.


Relative rate support is now a clear positive for AUD compared with currencies whose central banks are either on hold or openly discussing cuts. The headwinds are global: US data risk, volatility in gold and industrial metals, and any renewed wobble in Chinese growth sentiment.


For this week, risks for AUD versus USD lean moderately to the upside. The 0.695–0.70 band is watched as important support, while the 0.71 region is viewed as the next resistance area that would likely require either a softer dollar or an explicitly hawkish RBA communication to clear.





⚖️ NZD – Kiwi consolidates near 0.60 ahead of RBNZ



NZDUSD is trading around 0.60–0.602, consolidating after last week’s bounce from the high 0.59s as softer domestic labour data and a cautious RBNZ outlook offset the positive spillover from AUD strength and metals stabilisation.


The cash rate sits near 2.25 percent after last year’s cuts, and policymakers have signalled they would prefer to sit tight for now unless growth deteriorates again. That leaves the kiwi highly sensitive to global risk sentiment and US data this week.


For the coming days, risks for NZD versus USD look balanced. Holding above 0.60 keeps scope for another push toward 0.61–0.62 if US data underwhelm and risk appetite recovers. Conversely, a strong dollar and weaker equities would likely re-expose the 0.59 handle and raise the probability of a deeper correction toward the mid-0.58s.





Cross-asset wrap



  • 🪙 Gold:
    Gold starts the week in consolidation mode around 5,000 dollars, after one of its sharpest two-day drops in decades. Local benchmarks show gains of about 1.5–2 percent today, but volatility remains very high as traders debate whether the early-February selloff was an overshoot or a regime shift under a more hawkish Fed. The market is treating 4,700–5,100 as a broad discovery zone that this week’s US jobs and CPI data will help refine.
  • 🛢 Oil:
    Brent is hovering near 67.5 dollars and WTI in the mid 60s, logging its first weekly decline in almost two months as diplomatic contact between the US and Iran eases fears of an immediate supply shock. The technical picture points to a mild bearish bias, with some room for corrective bounces toward 70, but the macro takeaway is that oil has shifted from acute risk to a moderate inflation headwind that still matters for central bank narratives and CAD, but is no longer dominating markets.
  • 📈 Stocks:
    Global equities are in rotation rather than meltdown. US indices have stumbled as investors reassess stretched valuations in AI and software, while more traditional cyclicals and Japan’s Nikkei have benefited from policy clarity and local political results. European indices have been steadier after the ECB’s steady-hand message, but they are not immune to any shock from this week’s US data.
  • ₿ Crypto:
    Bitcoin begins the week under pressure, with traders openly discussing whether 50,000 might become the next downside reference if real yields stay high and risk assets struggle. Funding remains choppy and ETFs have seen less supportive flow, which reinforces the pattern of crypto trading as a high-beta extension of macro risk rather than a standalone hedge in this phase of the cycle.






This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.


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