Good morning traders from a grey-but-brightening IntelliTrade desk, where a cool 9°C, light rain and a slow break toward 14–15°C later make it perfect “stay at the screens” weather. Grab your coffee, because today we have a softer dollar, record-high gold, and Nvidia-fuelled risk appetite all pulling markets in different directions.
Overall Market Sentiment
The mood is cautious risk on with a softer dollar. The broad US Dollar Index is around 97.6, slightly lower on the day and about 0.1–0.2 percent off yesterday’s close. Over the past month it is still up roughly 1.4 percent, but down about 9 percent over 12 months, which fits the picture of a currency that has bounced from last year’s lows and is now losing a bit of momentum.
Equities are riding the Nvidia wave. The chip giant reported another blowout quarter, with revenue up 73 percent year on year to around 68 billion dollars, which has calmed some of the immediate AI bubble fears and lifted global tech sentiment. Asian shares are higher, and European futures are modestly in the green, even though some of Nvidia’s initial after-hours surge has faded.
Safe-haven and real assets remain elevated rather than reversing. Gold is trading near 5,200 dollars per ounce, up about 0.6 percent on the day and roughly 81 percent year on year, after printing an all-time high near 5,595 in late January and then consolidating in the 5,000–5,100 zone. Brent crude is near 71–71.5 dollars and WTI around 65.6 dollars, as Geneva nuclear talks between the US and Iran are seen as a key swing factor for how much of the current risk premium remains in the oil price.
In crypto, Bitcoin has snapped back above 68,000 dollars after a deep correction, attempting its first meaningful rebound since a 50 percent plus drawdown from the highs. The move is driven by renewed risk appetite and speculation that ETF and institutional flows will remain supportive, although analysts still caution that volatility is elevated and the market is not “out of the woods” yet.
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Geopolitics
Tariffs and Middle East tensions continue to shape the macro backdrop, but markets are shifting from pure shock to more nuanced pricing.
• On trade, the Supreme Court’s decision that earlier US tariffs under emergency powers were illegal has created a complex refund and litigation story. At the same time, new broad-based tariffs under other legal tools are still in place, and fresh analysis from European development lenders highlights that trade has mostly been rerouted rather than destroyed, so far. The effect is a chronic headwind for confidence and supply chains, not yet an outright collapse in global trade volumes.
• In energy, the focus today is on US–Iran talks in Geneva. With WTI near 65–66 dollars and analysts estimating that as much as 10 dollars per barrel of risk premium is embedded in prices, any constructive outcome could see oil give back part of its geopolitical bid. A breakdown in talks would do the opposite.
For FX, this configuration tends to support gold and CHF, keep the dollar from weakening too sharply, and leave high beta currencies like AUD and NZD sensitive to any renewed spike in risk aversion.
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Policy and data: today and the rest of the week
Today (Thursday)
• The US data slate is light, so markets are mostly trading on post-Nvidia sentiment, tariff headlines and positioning around Friday’s inflation data.
• In Asia, the strong tech tone is helping the MSCI Asia Pacific index climb around 0.9 percent, although some chip names are already fading part of the initial enthusiasm.
The rest of this week
• United States
• The key macro release is Friday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which will show whether pipeline price pressures remain contained after softer consumer inflation prints. This sits alongside a heavy earnings calendar for big tech, with Nvidia already reported and others still in focus. Together, these will drive how quickly markets expect the Federal Reserve to move toward cuts.
• Euro area
• After the January flash print that showed headline inflation around 1.7 percent year on year, investors now watch February estimates, business surveys and German data to confirm that disinflation continues without a sharp growth relapse. This is central to whether the ECB can keep deferring rate cuts.
• United Kingdom
• Markets are digesting softer headline CPI and looking ahead to activity and housing indicators that will influence the Bank of England path. The debate is whether the first cut comes around mid year or later, given still sticky services inflation and wage dynamics.
• Australia
• Yesterday’s CPI showed annual inflation at 3.8 percent, with trimmed mean inflation up to 3.4 percent, a 16 month high. This keeps the RBA firmly on a tightening-slanted stance and has already helped lift AUD. The market will scrutinise upcoming speeches from Governor Bullock for any hint of how many more hikes are plausible.
• Japan
• After saying that the BoJ plans to continue raising rates, Governor Ueda has slightly supported the yen, and Tokyo CPI later this week will show whether core inflation is behaving or drifting away from target again. The interaction between a still-wide yield gap and tentative BoJ normalisation remains key for JPY.
• Canada, Switzerland, New Zealand and China
• Canadian data, Swiss growth figures, New Zealand wage and inflation signals, and Chinese PMIs will round out the global picture, especially for commodity and safe-haven currencies. In New Zealand, fresh wage and inflation indications are already putting some pressure on the RBNZ to clarify how long it can remain patient.
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Currency outlooks
🔻 USD – Dollar looks tired after February rebound
The US Dollar Index is around 97.6, down a touch on the day and showing early signs of a swing high after repeated failures near 98 and a recent bearish outside day on the charts. Over the past month the dollar is still up about 1.4 percent, but positioning and technicals both point to waning upside momentum.
Fundamentally, a still-hawkish Fed tone and relatively solid US growth support the currency, but uncertainty around tariff policy and the prospect of eventual rate cuts later this year cap the bullish story. With markets already long dollars relative to some peers after the February bounce, the bar for further gains is getting higher.
For the rest of this week, risks for USD are tilted slightly to the downside. A benign PPI print and continued equity resilience would encourage moves into other majors and into gold, while a sharp upside surprise in producer inflation or a new tariff shock could quickly restore a stronger dollar bid.
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🔺 EUR – Euro edges higher as dollar softens and data hold up
EURUSD is trading near 1.181, up about 0.3 percent on the day, helped by the modest pullback in the dollar and some relief that recent euro area data have been consistent with a slow-growth, gradual-disinflation scenario rather than a renewed slump.
Technically, the pair has managed to hold above the 1.1750–1.1775 band that marked recent lows, and short-term analysis now talks about attention shifting back toward 1.19 if the dollar continues to drift. The broader context is still that the euro has gained roughly 12 percent over the past year, so the recent sideways action is a consolidation inside a larger recovery.
For the coming days, risks for EUR versus USD lean gently to the upside. If US PPI does not surprise on the high side and euro area data stay close to expectations, markets will feel comfortable keeping EURUSD in a 1.18–1.19 range, with dips toward 1.1775 likely viewed as part of that consolidation rather than the start of a new downtrend.
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⚖️ GBP – Sterling benefits from risk rebound but BoE doubts linger
GBPUSD is around 1.356, up roughly 0.5 percent over the last session and extending a multi-day rebound off the mid 1.34s. The move has been supported by improved global risk sentiment after the Nvidia results and by a dollar that is no longer grinding higher every day.
At the same time, the UK macro mix still looks fragile. Headline inflation has come down, but services prices and wage growth remain uncomfortably sticky, and growth data have been soft enough that the Bank of England is unlikely to sound aggressive. Markets now broadly price the first full cut around mid year, though with modest conviction.
Given these cross currents, risks for GBP versus USD look broadly balanced this week. A constructive global tone and in-line data could allow GBPUSD to probe toward 1.36–1.365, while any renewed risk wobble or hawkish PPI surprise would quickly refocus attention back on support near 1.345.
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🔺 CAD – Oil and softer USD tilt risks toward a stronger loonie
The Canadian dollar is slightly firmer, with USDCAD around 1.367–1.368, down from last week’s highs near 1.372. Intraday commentary highlights a market that is consolidating below resistance and may be close to a medium-term top, especially if oil holds its gains and US yields drift lower.
Brent and WTI are still trading with a geopolitical risk premium, which supports Canada’s terms of trade, while domestic inflation has been contained enough that the Bank of Canada can stay patient. That leaves CAD driven more by external factors like tariffs, risk appetite and the US data path than by local policy surprises.
For the rest of the week, risks for CAD versus USD lean slightly toward further CAD strength, especially if PPI is benign and Geneva talks prevent another spike in oil volatility. Traders are watching 1.366–1.363 as a first support zone, with any sustained break lower raising the odds that the broader downtrend in USDCAD resumes.
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🔺 CHF – Franc quietly outperforms as safe-haven flows persist
USDCHF is trading near 0.772, close to the lows of the recent range and marginally softer on the day, as the franc benefits from both safe-haven demand and a softer dollar. Over the past weeks, the pair has oscillated within a relatively tight band, but the bias has been for gradual USD losses as SNB rate cut expectations fade.
Recent analysis notes that USDCHF continues to respect major resistance levels and that downside breaks toward 0.764–0.760 would confirm a more extended decline. For now, we are still in consolidation, but the directional risk is for a stronger franc as long as global uncertainty around tariffs and Middle East tensions stays elevated.
Short term, risks for CHF versus USD are skewed toward additional franc strength, particularly if Friday’s PPI is not dollar supportive. Any meaningful bounce in USDCHF back above 0.78 would probably require a combination of stronger US data and calmer geopolitics.
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⚖️ JPY – Yen caught between higher yields and a more hawkish BoJ tone
USDJPY is quoted around 156.3 in recent bank commentary, although price action early in the European morning has seen the yen firm a little after Governor Ueda reiterated that the BoJ plans to continue raising rates.
The yield gap between US and Japanese bonds remains wide, which supports carry trades that fund in JPY, yet the prospect of further BoJ normalisation limits the upside in USDJPY and keeps intervention risk alive if the pair pushes much higher. Tokyo CPI later in the week will be important for confirming whether the bank has space to move again.
For the rest of this week, risks for JPY versus USD look mixed. A calm PPI print and steady risk sentiment would allow gradual yen recovery and a drift back toward the 154–155 area, while stronger US inflation or another spike in yields would quickly support retests of recent highs.
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🔺 AUD – Hot Australian inflation and risk appetite support the Aussie
The Australian dollar is one of the better performers. AUDUSD is around 0.712, up almost 1 percent over the last session and approaching resistance near 0.7145, helped by January CPI data that showed headline inflation at 3.8 percent and trimmed mean inflation at 3.4 percent, a 16 month high.
This keeps the RBA on a tightening-biased path, with markets now pricing a high probability of further hikes by mid year, and it gives AUD a clear yield advantage against some peers. The improved global tone after Nvidia’s results also helps, since AUD tends to behave like a high beta proxy for global growth and risk appetite.
Through the rest of this week, risks for AUD versus USD lean to the upside. As long as US data do not come in significantly stronger than expected and risk sentiment holds, markets are likely to keep buying dips toward the 0.705–0.708 area, with the 0.714–0.715 zone as the next key reference on the topside.
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🔺 NZD – Kiwi rebuilds momentum as RBNZ patience is questioned
The New Zealand dollar is also firmer. NZDUSD is near 0.600, up roughly 0.6 percent, with analysis highlighting a consolidating but still positive broader bias. Fresh wage and inflation signals are putting some pressure on the RBNZ to reconsider how long it can keep rates unchanged, even though markets still price only modest lift-off risk before year end.
Technically, NZDUSD has been holding above the 0.595–0.596 support region and is now threatening to break more convincingly into the low 0.60s, helped by the softer dollar backdrop and improved risk tone. The NZD is also benefiting from a wider story of strength in the antipodeans on the day, with AUD leading and NZD following.
For the next few sessions, risks for NZD versus USD tilt toward further upside, as long as global growth concerns do not resurface abruptly. A sustained break above 0.602–0.605 would reinforce that constructive view, while a move back below 0.595 would suggest that the corrective phase is not finished.
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Cross-asset wrap
• 🪙 Gold:
Gold is trading around 5,197 dollars per ounce, up roughly 0.6 percent on the session, about 0.3 percent over the month and more than 80 percent year on year. It remains in a clear primary uptrend after making an all-time high near 5,595 in January, with the current consolidation above 5,000 seen as a pause rather than a reversal. For macro investors, gold is acting as a hedge against both inflation uncertainty and policy credibility risk, especially around tariffs and fiscal policy.
• 🛢 Oil:
Brent crude is hovering near 71 dollars, while WTI sits around 65–66 dollars, with roughly 10 dollars per barrel of risk premium estimated to be linked to Middle East tensions and nuclear negotiations. Analysts argue that a constructive outcome in Geneva could see that premium unwind, while a breakdown in talks would likely trigger another leg higher. This keeps oil a key variable for both inflation expectations and currencies tied to energy exports.
• 📈 Stocks:
Global equities are in recovery-with-jitters mode. Major US indices have posted two straight sessions of gains, led by tech, after Nvidia reported another blowout quarter that beat expectations on revenue and earnings. At the same time, some of the initial euphoria is fading as investors ask whether even very strong results are enough to justify current valuations. For FX, this means a more constructive backdrop for pro-risk currencies, but with volatility likely to pick up again around each new AI-related headline.
• ₿ Crypto:
Bitcoin has rebounded toward the 68,000–69,000 dollar area after a sharp earlier selloff, with several analyses describing this as the first meaningful bounce following a roughly 50 percent drawdown from the peak. ETF flows and institutional positioning remain supportive, but on-chain data show some long-term holders taking profit, which could cap near-term upside. In practice, BTC continues to trade as a high beta macro asset, closely tied to swings in risk appetite and real yields rather than decoupling from the rest of the market.
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This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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