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Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed to cautious. The dollar holds near recent highs as traders lean on private indicators and yield spreads while official U.S. releases are disrupted.
Currency Outlooks
🔺 USD: Futures price about a 65% chance of another 25 bp Fed cut in December, down from the mid-90s last week, which lends dollar support alongside a modest bull-steepening in the curve. The 10-year is near 4.11% and the 2-year around 3.60%, leaving 2s10s roughly +51 bp; a positive slope typically underpins the greenback when growth fears ease. DXY is hovering just under 100, and attention shifts to Wednesday’s ADP and the ISM labor and prices components for direction. Consensus has core CPI running near 0.2% to 0.3% month on month, broadly consistent with a 3.0% headline pace. Nuance: if ADP softens and the long end rallies, a DXY slip back through 99.50 is possible into late week.
⚖️ EUR: October flash HICP printed 2.1% year on year while core remains in the mid-2s, keeping the ECB comfortably on hold and leaving EURUSD driven by U.S. rates. With realized FX volatility compressed, ranges can stretch on data surprises. Technically, 1.1500 is first support and 1.1620 resistance; a daily close above 1.1620 opens 1.1680, while a break of 1.1500 risks 1.1450. Near-term bias is modestly lower while DXY sits near 100.
⚖️ GBP: Into Thursday’s BoE, markets see roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25 bp cut. Services inflation is sticky while growth signals are fragile, so guidance will do the heavy lifting. GBPUSD trades near 1.31 with 1.3050 support and 1.3200 resistance; a dovish surprise likely tests 1.3000. In a data-light week, U.S. yields and cross-asset tone dominate.
🔻 CAD: The BoC cut to 2.25% last week and kept optionality for more easing, while crude has slipped with Brent near the mid-60s and WTI around the low-61s. That mix leaves CAD softer into the U.S. data pulse. USDCAD trades near 1.405 with 1.3950 support and 1.4100 resistance; a sustained push above 1.4100 targets 1.4180. Canada jobs on Friday is the domestic swing risk.
⚖️ CHF: Swiss inflation sits near zero and the SNB policy rate is around 0%, leaving CHF primarily a function of safe-haven demand and rate differentials. EURCHF is parked near 0.93 and USDCHF around 0.80; 0.8000 is the first magnet on USDCHF dips, while EURCHF needs a daily close above 0.9350 to thaw the broader downtrend. Range trading prevails absent a risk-off shock.
🔻 JPY: USDJPY holds in the mid-153s as resilient U.S. yields and a gradual BoJ path keep carry attractive. Markets still assign roughly a one-third to two-fifths chance of a 25 bp BoJ hike by December, but conviction is limited without firmer wage or CPI signals. Intervention risk lingers into 154–155. Key levels: 152.50 support, 154.50 resistance; a break higher invites 156.00.
🔻 AUD: The RBA held at 3.60% and signaled caution on easing given sticky trimmed-mean inflation. AUDUSD sits near 0.654 with 0.6500 support and 0.6620 resistance; near-term bias is lower while commodities lag and the dollar stays bid.
🔻 NZD: The RBNZ’s 50 bp October cut to 2.50% leaves rate differentials soft versus USD and AUD, with the door open to more easing if growth fails to re-accelerate. NZDUSD is pressed near multi-month lows around 0.57; watch 0.5680 support and 0.5760 resistance. EURNZD stays buoyant unless the RBNZ tone turns less dovish.
Conclusion
🪙 Gold: Below 4,000 as the dollar firms and nominal yields stabilize. A daily close above 4,010 would revive momentum; 3,950 is first support.
🛢 Oil: OPEC+ signaling a pause in planned H1-2026 increases has not stopped prices from easing on surplus worries. Brent in the mid-60s and WTI near 61 keep energy FX capped unless inventories tighten.
📈 Stocks: U.S. equity futures are modestly higher pre-open with crypto-linked names leading. In the absence of official data, headline sensitivity remains elevated.
🧠 Dollar firms as curve steepens in data vacuum
Published: 11/4/2025