Published: 11/6/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on. A soft ADP and a firmer ISM services print met steadier equities, while traders eye noon London for the BoE and mid-morning Oslo for Norges Bank.

Currency Outlooks

🔻 USD: Futures price roughly a two-thirds chance of another 25 bp Fed cut in December, down from earlier peaks, which takes some heat out of the dollar. The 2s10s spread sits near plus 0.5 percent, and a further bull-steepen would support risk and weigh on the greenback. ISM services printed 52.4 while ADP rose 42k, enough to keep December in play but not enough to extend last week’s USD surge. Key levels: DXY sell zone 100.00 to 100.40, support 99.30. If long yields slip and the curve steepens further, USD dips can accelerate into next week.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.

🔺 EUR: Near-term driver is the softer dollar and a steadier global risk tone rather than Eurozone data. A daily close above 1.1620 opens 1.1680, while 1.1500 remains first support. If the BoE holds and Norges holds, benign cross-currents should let EURUSD grind higher into US claims and next week’s releases. Bias is to buy dips while DXY stays below 100.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔺 bullish.

⚖️ GBP: The BoE decision lands at 12:00 UK time. Markets lean to a hold with roughly a one-in-three chance of a cut, so guidance and the vote split will carry the signal. GBPUSD trades tactically between 1.3050 support and 1.3200 resistance into the event; global risk and US yields will dictate follow-through.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

⚖️ CAD: Oil has steadied off two-week lows, trimming CAD downside even as US data drive the tape. With BoC cuts already delivered, USDCAD is a range trade into Friday’s Canada jobs. Levels: 1.3950 support, 1.4100 resistance; oil stabilisation favors tests of support.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

🔻 CHF: Ultra-low Swiss inflation and a policy rate at zero keep rate differentials CHF-negative unless risk sours. EURCHF is biased higher on any post-BoE relief, while USDCHF tracks the broad dollar. Levels: EURCHF 0.9350 resistance, 0.9280 support; USDCHF pivot near 0.8000.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish on CHF.

🔺 JPY: Markets price roughly a 45 to 50 percent chance of a BoJ hike in December as wage signals firm, but wide US-Japan spreads still support USDJPY on rallies. Intervention risk rises into 155, though recent commentary points to a preference for calm rather than hard lines. Trade the 153.50 to 155.00 band with a sell-rallies bias if US yields ease.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔺 bullish JPY.

⚖️ AUD: The RBA held at 3.60 percent and signalled caution. Near term, AUD trades global risk and China impulses more than local data. AUDUSD levels: 0.6500 support, 0.6620 resistance; a weaker USD would let AUD probe the topside.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

🔻 NZD: The RBNZ’s 50 bp October cut to 2.50 percent, plus guidance that more is possible, leaves rate spreads soft versus USD and AUD. Markets lean to another 25 bp cut by late November. NZDUSD 0.5680 support, 0.5760 resistance; EURNZD stays buoyant unless global risk lifts decisively.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Firmer as the dollar eases, with spot near the 4,000 handle. First levels: 3,980 support, 4,050 resistance.

🛢 Oil: Brent near 63.7 and WTI near 59.8 after a gentle bounce from two-week lows as glut fears ebb. Ranges likely hold unless inventories or policy headlines break the stalemate.

📈 Stocks: Re-stabilising equities fit a tired USD rally and a modest risk-on bias, but today’s central bank events control the next leg.

🪙 Crypto: BTC around 103,000 and ETH near 3,380, both consolidating as the dollar eases. For BTC, 101,230 and 104,495 are the first support and resistance markers. Macro drivers are the BoE tone, US yields, and curve steepening.