← Back to posts🧠Dollar soft, gold buoyant as NFP sets the tone

🧠Dollar soft, gold buoyant as NFP sets the tone

Published: 2/11/2026

Good morning traders from a bright-for-now, rain-later IntelliTrade desk. It is about 7°C and partly sunny right now with clouds and showers marching in this afternoon, so the weather is doing exactly what markets are doing: teasing calm before a data-heavy downpour.



Overall Market Sentiment



The mood is cautious but leaning risk-on, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) sliding toward recent lows ahead of today’s delayed US jobs report. DXY is trading around 96.6, down roughly 2 percent over the past month and more than 10 percent over the last year, as markets increasingly price a slower economy and more scope for rate cuts later in 2026.


Gold is firmer, benefiting from both the softer dollar and lower Treasury yields. Spot is up about 0.7 percent on the day around 5,050 dollars per ounce, with silver jumping more than 2 percent, as investors hedge the risk that today’s numbers reveal a weaker 2025 labour backdrop than previously reported.Oil is also bid, with Brent around 69–69.5 dollars, supported by renewed tension between the United States and Iran plus improving demand signals from India.


Equities are in a classic rotation. The S&P 500 closed yesterday near 6,975, slightly lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched yet another record, even as tech and software struggled on AI disruption worries.Bitcoin is trading near 69,000 dollars, down about 1.5 percent over 24 hours, behaving as a high-beta macro asset that amplifies swings in risk sentiment rather than offsetting them.





Geopolitics



Geopolitically, markets are focused on a fragile US–Iran backdrop. Earlier optimism around talks in Oman has given way to renewed concern as signals out of the region have turned more hostile again, and reports highlight the possibility of additional US military assets in the Middle East, including around the Strait of Hormuz.That keeps a risk premium embedded in crude even as global demand growth is modest, and it feeds directly into inflation expectations, the outlook for rate cuts and sentiment in oil-sensitive currencies such as CAD and NOK.





Policy and the macro map for this week



Today’s main event is the January US Employment Situation report, delayed by the recent partial government shutdown and now released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Consensus sits around +70–80k payrolls, unemployment at 4.4 percent and wages up about 0.3 percent month on month, but the real focus is the annual benchmark revision, which could materially revise down parts of the 2025 jobs trend.Fed funds futures now fully price the next cut for June, with markets increasingly toying with the idea that more than two cuts could be needed if the slowdown intensifies.


On Friday, January CPI arrives, so markets will have labour and inflation data inside the same 72-hour window. The pairing matters: a soft NFP followed by soft CPI would cement the current dollar downtrend and support gold and high-beta FX, while a firm CPI after weak jobs could create a tug of war between growth concerns and inflation persistence.


Outside the US, the European Central Bank is holding its deposit rate at 2.0 percent with inflation near target and modest growth, the Bank of England has signalled openness to cuts after a narrow vote to keep 3.75 percent, and the Reserve Bank of Australia remains the hawkish outlier after lifting its cash rate to 3.85 percent last week.





Today and the rest of the week




Today, Wednesday



  • At 8:30 a.m. ET, the January Non-Farm Payrolls report lands with headline, unemployment, wages and heavy revisions all in play. The range of forecasts is unusually wide, from small job losses to six-figure gains, which means both upside and downside surprises are very possible.
  • The dollar enters the release with DXY around 96.6, near a four-month low, and rate cuts increasingly priced from mid-year onward, so the bar for further USD weakness is higher than a month ago.
  • Short-term volatility is likely to be highest in front-end yields, gold, USDJPY and high-beta FX rather than EURUSD alone.




The rest of the week



  • Thursday: markets digest the full revision details from NFP, which may take a day to fully flow through into labour-trend narratives and earnings expectations.
  • Friday brings January CPI. Consensus expects core to continue edging lower, but any upside surprise in shelter and services would challenge the current risk-on tone and could stabilise the dollar into next week.
  • In Eurozone and the United Kingdom, data is lighter, so EUR and GBP are likely to take their cue from US releases and central-bank speakers rather than domestic surprises.
  • In Japan, the focus is on the yen and the aftermath of the so-called “Takaichi rally”, with USDJPY dropping sharply below previous highs as markets rebalance after the election and lower US yields.
  • In Australia and New Zealand, attention stays on the RBA’s hawkish tilt, RBNZ’s cautious hold and how both currencies trade around US data and China’s growth signals.






Currency outlooks




⚖️ USD – Soft, but with two-way risk around NFP



The dollar has been grinding lower, with DXY near 96.6, down about 2.3 percent over the month and more than 10 percent over twelve months.Fed funds futures now fully price the next cut in June, and add at least two cuts for the rest of the year, a notable shift from late-2025 when markets were still debating whether the Federal Reserve could even start easing in 2026.


Today’s jobs report is the near-term arbiter. A headline near 70–80k, unemployment at 4.4 percent and wages at 0.3 percent month on month would reinforce the “cooling but not breaking” narrative and likely keep USD under gentle pressure. A clearly weaker mix, especially with large downward revisions, would widen the downside risks and could push DXY toward the 96.0–96.2 band that many desks see as next support.


Conversely, a strong print above 120k with firm wages would challenge the current rate-cut pricing and could provoke a sharp short-covering bounce toward 97.5–98.0. For this week as a whole, USD risks look two-sided, with a slight bias to further softness if data only mildly disappoints rather than dramatically surprise to the upside.





🔺 EUR – Supported by ECB patience and USD softness



EURUSD is trading around 1.19, close to recent highs, after gaining more than 2 percent over the past month and almost 15 percent over the last year.The euro benefits from an ECB that is broadly comfortable with inflation near its 2 percent target and is not rushing to cut, while the dollar is under pressure from weaker data and rising cut expectations.


Growth in the euro area remains modest rather than strong, which caps the upside, but investors see the policy mix as relatively stable compared with US uncertainty around the new Fed regime and benchmark revisions. In the near term, risks for EUR versus USD lean moderately to the upside, especially if NFP supports the view that the US labour market is slowing but not collapsing.


Technically, markets are watching the 1.18–1.182 area as near-term support and the 1.20 region as the next resistance zone. A weak USD reaction to NFP could give EURUSD another test of 1.20, while a strong US print would likely pull it back toward the lower end of the 1.17–1.19 range.





🔻 GBP – Dovish BoE and politics keep a drag on sterling



GBPUSD is around 1.37, near the middle of its recent 1.35–1.38 range, after failing to sustain a break higher in late January. The Bank of England’s latest meeting showed a close vote, with several policymakers already favouring a cut from 3.75 percent, and markets now price earlier UK easing than in the euro area.


At the same time, sluggish growth and ongoing political noise in the United Kingdom encourage some investors to see GBP as a relative underperformer on rallies, especially against currencies backed by more hawkish central banks.


For this week, risks for GBP versus USD remain tilted modestly to the downside, even with a soft dollar. NFP and CPI could still drag GBPUSD around with broader USD swings, but markets are likely to treat roughly 1.35 as key support and 1.38 as resistance, with selling interest expected to re-emerge on attempts to break higher unless US data are decisively weak.





🔺 CAD – Oil support and softer USD give loonie a gentle tailwind



The Canadian dollar is benefiting from firmer oil and a weaker greenback. The USD/CAD rate is trading around 1.35–1.36, close to the lower end of its recent range and down from the early-February highs above 1.37.Brent near 69 dollars plus a more positive demand story out of India and some re-routing of flows away from Russia are supporting Canada’s terms of trade.


With inflation near target, the Bank of Canada can afford to be patient, so near-term CAD moves will mostly react to US data, oil and overall risk appetite. Into and after NFP, risks for CAD versus USD lean slightly toward further strength, especially if US numbers are only mildly soft and oil holds above the high-60s. Many desks see 1.35 as a reference area on USDCAD, with a break below opening room toward mid-1.34s, while a strong US data surprise plus any oil setback would likely re-expose the 1.37 area.





🔺 CHF – Franc stays firm as quiet hedge into data risk



The Swiss franc remains one of the stronger G10 currencies. USDCHF is trading near 0.766, close to recent lows, after declining for several sessions as rate differentials narrow a touch and investors keep a steady hedge against macro and geopolitical surprises.


Domestic inflation in Switzerland remains low, which leaves the central bank comfortable with a relatively strong currency as a buffer against imported price shocks. With US yields easing and the dollar softer, risks for CHF versus USD lean modestly toward further franc strength or at least continued resilience, especially if today’s data lean dovish for the Fed. The 0.76–0.765 zone is seen as near-term support for USDCHF, with the 0.78–0.79 band as resistance in any corrective dollar bounce.





🔺 JPY – Yen gets relief as yields fall and NFP looms



The yen has finally found some footing. USDJPY has dropped toward the 153 area, after trading above 156 earlier this month, helped by lower US yields, increased Fed-cut expectations and some position squaring ahead of today’s NFP release.Recent headlines flag USDJPY breaking below about 153.4 on strong yen buying, partly as investors re-assess the post-election rally in Japanese assets under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.


The structural story still matters: short-term rates at the Bank of Japan remain far below US levels, so carry is still attractive. Yet as the pair has moved down from extremes and the dollar softened, near-term risks for JPY look tilted toward a bit more strength, especially if NFP reinforces a cooling US labour picture.


Traders are watching the 152–153 band as an area where yen demand has recently emerged, while any hawkish surprise from US data could push USDJPY back toward the mid-150s and raise the noise around potential intervention again.





🔺 AUD – Hawkish RBA plus risk-on tone keep Aussie elevated



The Australian dollar is one of the clear G10 outperformers. AUDUSD has traded up to around 0.7125 today, its highest level in months, on a mix of hawkish RBA rhetoric, widening rate differentials and improving global risk appetite.The RBA’s move to 3.85 percent and guidance that further tightening is possible if inflation does not behave puts Australia in a very different phase from peers that are already debating cuts.


With gold and industrial metals stabilising and the dollar soft into NFP, risks for AUD versus USD lean clearly to the upside this week, although the pair is looking stretched in the very short term. Markets see 0.70 as a key support area and the 0.715–0.72 region as potential resistance where some profit taking might emerge on first tests, especially if US data are stronger than expected.





⚖️ NZD – Kiwi grinds higher, but RBNZ caution caps the upside



The New Zealand dollar is firm but more measured than AUD. NZDUSD is trading around 0.606, near the top of its recent range, as the pair rides a short-term bullish trend supported by better risk sentiment and spillover from AUD strength.


However, local policy guidance remains cautious. Markets increasingly expect the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to keep the Official Cash Rate on hold for an extended period, with some major forecasters now pushing the first hike in the next cycle toward late 2026, which limits the scope for aggressive NZD appreciation.


For this week, NZD risks versus USD look roughly balanced to slightly positive. Holding above 0.60 keeps the door open to extensions toward 0.61–0.62 if US data are soft and risk appetite holds, while a stronger-than-expected NFP or CPI print could see a dip back toward the high-0.59s as investors take profit on recent kiwi gains.





Cross-asset wrap



  • 🪙 Gold:
    Gold is back above 5,050 dollars, lifting further after weaker US retail sales pushed yields lower and undermined the dollar, with traders now positioning for the possibility that today’s NFP will reinforce the notion of a cooling economy. The metal is functioning as a combined hedge on Fed policy risk, labour-market revisions and geopolitical uncertainty in energy.
  • 🛢 Oil:
    Brent is trading around 69–69.5 dollars, supported by escalating US–Iran tensions and stronger demand from India, even as inventories show a mixed picture and the 12-month change remains mildly negative. Markets see current levels as a compromise between geopolitical risk and a desire to avoid crippling growth, which feeds directly into inflation expectations and the policy debate at central banks.
  • 📈 Stocks:
    Equity markets are caught between macro relief and micro worries. The S&P 500 is just under 7,000, the Dow has posted multiple record closes, yet the Nasdaq Composite and software names have lagged as AI disruption questions old business models. Weak retail sales helped push yields lower, which supported valuations, but today’s NFP and Friday’s CPI now decide whether this morphs into a sustained risk-on phase or a choppier consolidation.
  • ₿ Crypto:
    Bitcoin is hovering near 69,000 dollars, down about 1.5 percent on the day and well below recent peaks above 75,000, with analysts highlighting how speculative derivatives positioning magnifies swings around macro events. For now, crypto is trading as the high-beta tail of the macro complex, reacting to shifts in dollar liquidity, real yields and overall risk appetite rather than offering a clean hedge against traditional markets.






This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.


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