Good morning traders from a cool, mostly cloudy IntelliTrade HQ, with Amsterdam starting around 5°C and edging toward 10°C later today, so pour the coffee and settle in for a busy Tuesday.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is cautious, but a touch less panicked than Monday. Relief chatter around a possible U.S. pullback from direct military action has lifted equity futures, yet oil remains elevated enough to keep inflation fears and growth worries firmly in play.
The bigger macro point is that markets are still trading an energy shock, not a clean de-escalation story. The dollar is on track for its strongest month since July, Brent is still coming off a record monthly surge, and investors are treating higher energy costs as a reason to stay defensive even as some risk assets try to stabilize.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains central because the Strait of Hormuz is still the pressure point for oil, shipping and inflation expectations. Brent near the $113 area, after recent moves above $115, is still the clearest market reference because it keeps the stagflation debate alive across FX and rates. Assumption: intraday relief headlines may soften the immediate panic, but they do not yet amount to a durable reopening of energy flows or a full removal of the war premium.
Macro Calendar
Today
- Euro area flash March inflation is due today, and it matters because the market wants to know how much of the oil shock is already feeding into headline prices and ECB expectations.
- U.S. JOLTS job openings for February are due today. For the dollar and Treasury yields, this is a useful read on whether labor demand is cooling fast enough to offset the inflation shock.
- Canada releases January GDP today, which matters for CAD because the loonie is trying to balance higher oil against a softer domestic growth backdrop.
- EU energy ministers are meeting to coordinate the bloc’s response to the war-driven squeeze in oil and gas markets, which keeps Europe’s energy vulnerability in focus for both EUR and regional risk sentiment.
The rest of this week
- Wednesday brings the ADP employment report and the ISM manufacturing PMI. Markets need to see whether the U.S. growth engine is still holding up as energy costs rise.
- Thursday’s weekly jobless claims will matter more than usual because claims are one of the fastest checks on whether labor-market softness is broadening.
- Friday brings the U.S. March payrolls report, which is still scheduled even though U.S. equity markets are closed for Good Friday, so any surprise could hit FX and rates in thinner liquidity.
- Friday also brings the ISM services PMI, which matters because services resilience has been one of the main reasons recession fears have not fully taken over.
🔺 USD - Dollar firm, but no longer chasing a fresh panic bid
The dollar still has the clearest support story among the majors. Safe-haven demand, the U.S. net-energy advantage, and the market’s shift away from early-2026 Fed cut hopes have all kept the greenback firm, even after Powell signaled the Fed can wait and see rather than rush into another hike. That matters because the dollar no longer needs an aggressively hawkish Fed to stay supported if oil remains high and global growth fears linger. Today’s JOLTS data, then ADP, ISM and payrolls, will decide whether the market keeps leaning toward sticky inflation with only gradual labor cooling. Risks still lean to a firmer dollar if energy stays elevated and U.S. data avoids a clear downside break. What would change that bias is a cleaner de-escalation in the Middle East combined with weaker U.S. labor and activity readings that pull yields lower.
🔻 EUR - Euro still exposed to the energy channel
The euro remains on the wrong side of the energy shock. Europe’s growth backdrop was already fragile before the latest move in oil and gas, and now the market is increasingly worried that higher energy costs will hit inflation and activity at the same time. That is why today’s euro area inflation release matters so much, especially after Germany’s March inflation jumped to 2.8% and ECB officials opened the door to responding more quickly if price expectations drift. EURUSD is still trading in a zone where the broader 1.14 to 1.15 area matters, with the pair vulnerable if inflation rises but growth confidence keeps fading. The bias improves only if energy pressure eases enough to reduce the stagflation premium hanging over the euro.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling supported by rates, capped by the growth drag
Sterling is still more resilient than many energy-importing currencies, but it is not getting a clean pass. The pound has been pressured by the same imported energy problem facing Europe, yet the Bank of England is also less able to look through another inflation pulse if fuel costs keep rising and wage dynamics stay sticky. That leaves UK rates offering support, while domestic growth and public-finance concerns limit how comfortable investors are with the story. GBPUSD has slipped toward the low 1.32s, so the 1.32 to 1.33 area is the key reference zone for now. Risks are mixed, but near-term pressure still leans slightly lower if the dollar stays firm and the energy shock persists.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but growth worries keep the loonie from fully benefiting
CAD still has one of the trickiest setups this week. In theory, Brent above $100 should help the loonie, but in practice USDCAD has been trading near a four-month high because the broader dollar move and concern about Canada’s own growth outlook are dominating. Today’s GDP release matters because it tests whether a softer domestic economy is becoming the bigger driver than crude. USDCAD around the 1.39 area remains the main market reference, and the bias only starts to improve for CAD if oil strength is seen as supportive for terms of trade rather than purely recessionary for global demand.
🔺 CHF - Franc still has the cleaner defensive role in Europe
The franc remains a straightforward defensive currency in this environment. The SNB has already said it is more willing to intervene if CHF strength becomes excessive, which tells you haven demand is still strong enough to worry policymakers. EURCHF remains the cleaner lens than USDCHF because Europe’s energy exposure makes the euro side of the cross especially vulnerable when oil and gas stay elevated. Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger CHF against the euro, while the CHF story against the dollar is more balanced because both currencies are attracting defensive demand.
🔻 JPY - Intervention risk is louder, but oil and yields still work against yen
JPY is still caught between safe-haven logic and a difficult macro reality. USDJPY is hovering around 160, Japan has now described the recent move as speculative, and intervention risk is rising, but higher oil prices and higher U.S. yields still make the yen hard to own on fundamentals alone. The added complication is that Japan is an energy importer, so this particular geopolitical shock hurts the yen through the terms-of-trade channel. The pair is clearly back in a zone that tends to draw official attention. Near-term risks still lean toward a weaker yen on yield and energy pressure, but the probability of sharp policy-driven reversals is now much higher than it was earlier in the month.
🔻 AUD - Aussie still trading more as a risk barometer than a rates story
The Aussie is behaving more like a risk and China proxy than a pure RBA currency at the moment. Today’s RBA minutes reinforced that inflation risks have gone back up, but the market still needs risk sentiment to stabilize before that rate story can dominate again. For now, AUD is more exposed to global growth fear and equity weakness than to domestic tightening support. The broader 0.68 area remains the key reference zone in AUDUSD.
🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains one of the clearer risk-sensitive laggards
NZD is still trading as one of the more exposed high-beta currencies in the current backdrop. The dollar’s safe-haven strength, softer global risk appetite and persistent oil-driven growth worries have pushed the kiwi to a four-month low near 0.5716. That leaves NZDUSD highly sensitive to the same U.S. data that matter for the broader dollar, but also to any shift in global equity sentiment. The tilt stays soft unless the market gets a more convincing de-escalation signal and a calmer rates backdrop at the same time.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,562, rebounding from the late-March washout but still on track for its worst month since 2008. The main drivers are still the dollar and real-rate repricing first, while geopolitical relief chatter is helping at the margin by easing some forced selling pressure. Watch next whether yields soften after this week’s U.S. labor data, because that would matter more than a simple risk bounce. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $70.8 to $71, rebounding with gold but still more cyclical in character. The main drivers are the dollar and yields, while the industrial side of the silver story keeps it more exposed than gold if PMIs start to roll over. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is near $113 after recent spikes above $115, and it is still holding far above levels seen before the latest escalation. Supply disruption risk around Hormuz remains the first driver, while de-escalation headlines and shipping workarounds are the second force pulling prices back from the highs. Watch next whether any political relief actually changes physical flows, because headlines alone have not removed the energy premium yet. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: U.S. futures are up close to 1% and EUROSTOXX 50 futures about 0.8%, but that bounce comes after a brutal month in which Asia shares fell hard and global investors absorbed the combined hit of higher oil, tighter financial conditions and slower growth fears. The macro theme is still rates plus energy, with cyclicals and rate-sensitive growth sectors doing most of the heavy lifting on bad days. Watch next today’s inflation data and the rest of this week’s U.S. labor and PMI releases to see whether the relief bounce can broaden. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $67,413, trading inside today’s roughly $66,229 to $68,193 range, so volatility is active but not disorderly. The main drivers are still broader liquidity conditions, real yields and general risk appetite, which means crypto is behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a standalone safe haven. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
Need help decoding this article? Get our free Macro Decoder ebook when signing up to our newsletter using the sign up button below! No spam, just value.