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Overall Market Sentiment: Risk-off and cautious. An equity correction and softer commodities support the dollar into today’s ADP print at 14:15 CET, which is the main cue for rates and FX direction in a data-light week.
Currency Outlooks
🔺 USD: Futures still price roughly a two-in-three chance of a December cut, down from last week, which keeps front-end yields sticky and the dollar supported. The 10-year sits near 4.13% and the 2-year around 3.60%, leaving 2s10s close to +50–55 bp, a shape that typically cushions USD on dips when growth fears are contained. ISM services hovers near the 50 line, so the base case is a steady dollar unless ADP softens materially. Key levels: DXY resistance ~100.25, support ~99.50. Nuance: a downside ADP surprise that drags long yields lower could push DXY back into its recent range.
🔻 EUR: The euro is trading the USD path and global risk tone more than local data. Equity de-risking and firmer USD have capped rallies. Watch 1.1450 support and 1.1620 resistance; a daily close above 1.1620 is needed to thaw the downtrend. Near term, EUR tracks yield spreads and the US labor pulse.
⚖️ GBP: The BoE decides tomorrow; markets lean to a hold with roughly a one-in-three chance of a cut, so guidance and vote split will carry the signal. Cable is boxed between 1.3000 and 1.3200 into the event, with global risk tone the dominant driver today. A “hawkish hold” favors 1.3200 retests; a cut likely tests 1.3000.
🔻 CAD: Oil softness on a risk-off tape keeps CAD heavy into Friday’s Canada jobs. USDCAD ranges around 1.3950 support and 1.4100 resistance; sustained closes above 1.4100 would target 1.4180. Without a firm crude rebound, CAD rallies should fade.
⚖️ CHF: With inflation near zero and policy steady, CHF trades as a haven toggle against EUR and USD rate differentials. EURCHF is sticky near 0.93 with 0.9350 as first resistance; USDCHF pivots around 0.8000 alongside UST moves. Haven demand would re-emerge on a sharper equity drawdown.
🔻 JPY: Wide rate differentials and a gradual BoJ path keep carry attractive while intervention risk lingers near 155. USDJPY holds in the mid-154s with 153.50 support and 154.50 then 155.00 resistance. Absent a drop in US front-end yields, dips are shallow.
🔻 AUD: The RBA held policy and flagged sticky core inflation, but weaker commodities and risk sentiment cap AUD. AUDUSD sits near 0.654 with 0.6500 support and 0.6620 resistance; bears control while the dollar stays bid.
🔻 NZD: The RBNZ’s October cut keeps rate spreads soft versus USD and AUD, leaving NZD near multi-month lows. NZDUSD levels: 0.5680 support, 0.5760 resistance; EURNZD stays buoyant unless RBNZ guidance turns less dovish.
Conclusion
🪙 Gold: Rangebound beneath recent highs as a firmer dollar and steady nominal yields cap upside; hedging demand limits downside. First markers: 3,950 support, 4,010 reclaim to revive momentum.
🛢 Oil: Pressure from risk-off tone and swollen inventories keeps rallies in check. A sustained move back toward the low-60s WTI is needed to relieve CAD pressure.
📈 Stocks: The correction is today’s backdrop. Position trimming in high-beta assets argues for a defensive bias until labor data clears.
🧠 Equity pullback and ADP focus keep dollar bid
Published: 11/5/2025