🧠 Fed cut odds, RBNZ decision and CPI-heavy week

Published: 11/25/2025

Date: November 25, 2025

Overall Market Sentiment:

Cautiously constructive. World equities sit near recent highs and volatility has eased after last week’s spike. The dollar is slightly softer from last week’s peak, with DXY just above 100 and the U.S. 10-year yield near 4.0 percent. Oil remains under pressure, with Brent near 63 and WTI in the high 50s. This week’s heavy calendar centers on Wednesday’s releases: Australian CPI, the RBNZ decision, U.S. GDP and core PCE, followed by Friday’s German and Swiss data, Canadian GDP and Sunday’s China PMIs.

Currency outlooks

⚖️ USD: balanced between easier policy and safe-haven demand
The dollar index trades around 100.1, close to recent highs and still above its 200-day average, so the starting point remains firm even as the latest move has been sideways to slightly softer. Futures and prediction gauges imply a high chance of a 25 bp cut at the December 10 FOMC, though some surveys still show a sizeable camp expecting no move. The October CPI report was cancelled after the shutdown, which puts extra focus on core PCE that is expected to run just under 3 percent year on year. Yields reflect this tension, with the 2-year near 3.5 percent and the 10-year around 4.0 percent, leaving a slightly positive curve. Near term, softer core PCE with stable growth would typically nudge USD modestly lower, while a hotter inflation print or strong GDP revision would likely keep DXY in the 99–101 corridor many are watching.

⚖️ EUR: helped by softer USD, capped by mediocre growth
EURUSD trades near 1.15, supported by a marginally softer dollar and inflation stabilising near target. Headline inflation is estimated around 2.1 percent for October and the ECB kept rates unchanged at 2 percent, signalling a steady stance and data-dependent approach to any future cuts. Activity points to modest growth rather than boom, which tempers enthusiasm for a sustained up-trend. Into mid-week, the 1.15 handle is a pivot, with Eurozone sentiment and preliminary CPI in focus. Risks look balanced: incremental strength if U.S. data encourage a clearer easing narrative, but no strong internal catalyst yet.

🔻 GBP: BoE doves and tax-heavy budget risk weigh on sterling
UK inflation fell to 3.6 percent in October and the BoE kept Bank Rate at 4 percent in a close 5–4 vote, leaving a December cut widely expected. Tomorrow’s Budget is expected to include meaningful tax increases to close the fiscal gap, which could dampen growth expectations and keep gilts anchored. GBPUSD has been oscillating in the 1.30–1.31 zone and EURGBP near 0.88, both mid-range. The near-term bias is slightly soft if the Budget is seen as growth-negative or if U.S. data firm.

🔻 CAD: cheap oil and an early-moving BoC keep loonie heavy
The BoC has already cut to 2.25 percent as growth cooled and inflation eased toward target. Brent near 63 and WTI around 58–59 provide limited terms-of-trade support and oversupply risk into 2026 remains a theme. USDCAD has drifted into the low 1.41s, with 1.39–1.42 the operative range into Friday’s Canadian GDP. Near-term risks lean toward CAD underperformance unless oil rebounds or U.S. data undershoot.

⚖️ CHF: ultra-low inflation offsets classic safe-haven appeal
Swiss inflation slowed to about 0.1 percent year on year and policy sits near 0 percent, so domestic impetus is limited. EURCHF near 0.93 and USDCHF around 0.81 reflect a firm but not extreme franc. With risk appetite improving and oil-linked inflation fears easing, immediate safe-haven demand is lower, though any equity stress or geopolitical setback would see CHF strengthen quickly. Overall stance is neutral.

🔺 JPY: stretched weakness, rising intervention and hike risk
USDJPY trades around 156.5, near year highs, as officials voice greater discomfort with rapid moves. Intervention risk is elevated, with the high-150s still treated as a rough pain zone. Core CPI remains near 3 percent and several BoJ voices have floated additional hikes after exiting negative rates, keeping a possible move in December on the table. With U.S. yields drifting lower and carry less one-way, risks tilt toward episodic JPY strength if intervention chatter escalates or U.S. data disappoint.

🔻 AUD: key CPI print arrives into an unsympathetic backdrop
The RBA held at 3.6 percent in November, noting incomplete progress on inflation. The new monthly CPI arrives Wednesday and will guide whether price pressures are re-accelerating or stabilising. AUDUSD trades in the mid-0.64s, roughly mid-range, but softer commodities, lingering China worries and fragile risk keep the backdrop unsupportive. A softer-than-expected CPI would likely keep AUD on the defensive, especially if U.S. data are firm.

🔻 NZD: RBNZ cut widely expected, guidance tone is key
Markets largely expect a 25 bp cut to 2.25 percent at tomorrow’s meeting after October’s move to 2.5 percent. The Bank expects inflation to drift back toward the 2 percent midpoint over the first half of 2026 and acknowledges cooler domestic momentum. NZDUSD hovers in the mid-0.56s near multi-month lows as rebounds meet selling ahead of the decision. Near-term risk tilt remains to the downside unless the RBNZ signals a shallow trough.

Cross-asset wrap

🪙 Gold: Around 4,140–4,150, supported by firm easing expectations and slightly lower real yields. Behaviour remains consistent with a long-duration hedge rather than a pure panic barometer.

🛢 Oil: Brent near 63 and WTI around 58–59 extend a multi-week drift lower on oversupply concerns and softer demand growth. The 60–65 Brent band remains the near-term sentiment range and weighs on energy-linked FX.

📈 Stocks and volatility: Global equities recovered from last week’s wobble, with broad indices back near recent highs and the VIX in the low 20s. Investors are adding risk on Fed-cut hopes but remain sensitive to this week’s major data and policy events.

₿ Crypto: Bitcoin has bounced to around 88,000 after last week’s slide, helped by easier Fed expectations and better risk appetite. Positioning remains fragile and highly sensitive to shifts in real yields and the dollar.



This is general, educational market commentary, not investment advice or a trading signal. It is meant to help readers understand how current macro data, policy expectations and sentiment are interacting across FX and major asset classes.