Good morning traders from a mostly sunny 24°C Amsterdam morning at the IntelliTrade desk, coffee close and no need to pretend this is a quiet summer market just because the screens are not flashing red.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Today’s market is calmer than yesterday’s headlines, but it is not relaxed.
The big shift is that the Fed minutes did not give traders the clean dovish comfort they were looking for. The Fed kept rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in June, but the minutes showed officials still worried about upside inflation risks, with a few even seeing a case for raising rates at that meeting. That matters because jobless claims also came in stable today, so the “labor market is cracking” argument did not get much help.
The cleaner read for me is this: the dollar is not flying, but the downside is harder now. Oil is still elevated, inflation risk is still alive, and JPY remains the currency that can turn a calm session into a messy one. I would not overcomplicate this into a full risk-on day.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics is still central because oil has not gone back to sleep. Brent is around the $77 to $78 area after renewed U.S.-Iran tension, with markets still watching the Strait of Hormuz risk even as prices eased from the latest spike.
The mistake here would be thinking lower oil from the high equals no problem. It helps risk sentiment, yes. But as long as the market believes shipping and energy flows can be disturbed again, inflation pricing stays sensitive, and that feeds directly into USD, JPY, CAD, gold and equities.
Assumption: the market is still treating this as a supply-risk premium, not a full blockade shock. That distinction matters.
Macro Calendar:
Today
- U.S. jobless claims came in at 215,000, down from 217,000 and below forecasts around 218,000. That keeps the labor market in a “slow hire, slow fire” zone rather than a clear deterioration story, which makes it harder for traders to push a strongly dovish Fed view today.
- Fed-minutes digestion is still the main dollar driver. The important part was not that the Fed held rates. We already knew that. The important part was that inflation risks still dominated enough for some officials to discuss a case for a hike.
- ECB accounts matter for EUR because they also leaned inflation-sensitive. The euro area discussion showed concern that inflation could remain above target into the first half of 2027, with oil and the Middle East conflict still central to the risk picture.
- China CPI eased to 1.0% year over year in June, a bit below expectations. That is not a huge global shock, but it keeps AUD and NZD from getting a strong China-demand tailwind today.
The rest of this week
- Canada jobs on Friday are the cleanest remaining CAD event. The prior release showed the next Labour Force Survey would arrive on July 10, and CAD needs that domestic read because oil is helpful but not enough by itself.
- Oil headlines remain a macro event into Friday. If Brent holds the upper-$70s and shipping risk stays alive, inflation expectations can stay sticky. If the premium fades, risk assets get more breathing room.
- Fed speakers and bond-market reaction matter more than usual after the minutes. The question is not whether every official wants tighter policy. The question is whether markets have to price the Fed as more inflation-sensitive again.
⚖️ USD - Dollar supported, but not cleanly dominant
USD has a better floor today than it had after the soft jobs print. The Fed minutes were not dovish, jobless claims did not confirm labor stress, and oil keeps inflation risk alive. That combination makes it difficult to argue that the dollar is broken.
But I would not call this a clean dollar breakout either. The dollar index is holding around the 101 area, and the move is partly about inflation protection, partly about safe-haven demand, and partly about markets rethinking how easy it is to fade the Fed.
The dollar has cooled, but it is not broken yet. That sentence still fits today.
⚖️ EUR - Inflation support, growth drag
EUR is not weak in a simple way. The ECB accounts gave the euro some policy support because inflation risks are still tilted higher, but the same energy shock that supports rate expectations also hurts growth and terms of trade. That is the awkward part.
The cleaner read for me is that EUR has a ceiling if the dollar stays supported and oil remains elevated. It can hold up, but it needs more than ECB inflation concern to lead.
🔺 GBP - Sterling has its own resilience
GBP is one of the better-looking majors today, with the pound near four-week highs around the $1.34 area. It has recovered from late-June stress and is holding up even with volatility rising.
The mistake would be pretending GBP is risk-free. UK politics, energy exposure and Bank of England pricing still matter. But compared with EUR, sterling has shown better relative strength, and that matters if the market stays selective rather than broadly anti-dollar.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, Friday decides more
CAD has oil support, but I do not want to make this too simple. Higher Brent can help Canada’s terms-of-trade story, while geopolitical oil strength can also hurt global risk appetite and keep inflation concerns alive. Brent around $77 to $78 is helpful, but it is not a free pass.
Friday’s jobs data matters because CAD needs a domestic anchor. If the labor market looks steady, CAD has more than oil behind it. If it disappoints, the oil story may not be enough.
⚖️ CHF - Still a stress check
CHF is not the loudest currency today, and that is fine. In this type of market, the franc is more of a stress gauge than a headline driver.
If oil risk fades and equities keep recovering, CHF can stay quiet. If the Middle East headlines worsen or yen pressure turns disorderly, CHF demand can return quickly.
🔻 JPY - Still the uncomfortable part
JPY remains the currency I would not brush aside. The yen is still near historically weak territory, and the pressure is harder to ignore when oil is elevated because Japan imports energy and remains sensitive to the terms-of-trade hit.
That matters because the intervention risk and the macro pressure are pulling in different directions. Intervention headlines can create sharp yen rebounds, but they do not automatically fix the yield gap. At the same time, treating yen weakness as a calm background trend is too casual.
For me, JPY is still the uncomfortable corner of FX today.
⚖️ AUD - No strong China help today
AUD is steady, but it does not have a powerful fresh catalyst. China CPI was softer than expected, which does not scream demand strength, and the Australian dollar is still tied to risk appetite, China sensitivity and commodity mood.
If equities stay firm and oil does not spiral, AUD can hold up. If yields rise again or China growth doubts return, AUD can lose support quickly.
🔺 NZD - RBNZ still gives it the cleanest domestic story
NZD still has the clearest domestic policy impulse after the RBNZ raised the OCR by 25 basis points to 2.50%. The Bank also said further OCR increases appear likely, although the timing is highly uncertain.
That does not make NZD immune to global risk. It is still a small, risk-sensitive currency. But relative to AUD, it has a cleaner central-bank reason to stay supported for now.
Cross-Asset Wrap:
- 🪙 Gold: Gold is trading around the $4,105 to $4,120 area after stabilizing from recent pressure. USD direction and real yields remain the first drivers, while Middle East risk adds haven support but does not fully cancel the pressure from a less-dovish Fed. Watch whether gold can hold its bid if yields stay firm. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is trading around the $59 to $60 area after a sharp pullback earlier in the week. Silver is tracking gold directionally, but its industrial side makes China demand and equity sentiment more important than for gold. Watch whether softer China inflation keeps growth-sensitive metals capped. [USD] [YIELDS] [GROWTH]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is trading around $77 to $78 after easing from the latest spike but staying elevated versus earlier in the week. The drivers are U.S.-Iran tension, Strait of Hormuz shipping risk and whether markets believe supply flows can normalize. Watch whether Brent stays in the upper-$70s or pulls back enough to cool the inflation narrative. [OIL] [INFLATION] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: U.S. equity futures are firmer, with chip stocks helping offset Middle East jitters, while European markets also steadied after recent volatility. The macro theme is still AI optimism versus higher oil, higher yields and inflation-sensitive central banks. Watch whether tech leadership remains strong enough to hide broader caution. [RISK] [AI] [YIELDS]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is trading around $62,950, with an intraday range roughly between $61,510 and $63,093. The tone is stable but not explosive, with liquidity expectations, dollar direction and real-yield pressure doing most of the work. Watch whether a firmer Fed narrative keeps crypto capped into the end of the week. [LIQUIDITY] [USD] [RISK]
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This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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