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Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed with a mild risk-on tilt. Front-end U.S. yields rose after Powell stressed December is not guaranteed, which supports the dollar, while a tariff thaw and a large U.S. crude draw cushion cyclical FX.
Geopolitics: Washington and Beijing agreed to trim U.S. tariffs to 47 percent from 57 percent for one year. That eases goods-inflation risk and marginally supports global growth sentiment. Watch USDJPY near 155 as a stress trigger for safe-haven flows, and Brent near 65 dollars as a barometer for the growth narrative. OPEC+ is discussing a modest supply increment of about 137 thousand barrels per day.
🔺 USD: The Fed cut 25 bp, but December is now a live debate. Futures put the next move near a 65 to 70 percent chance, down from earlier in the week. Two-year yields led higher and compressed the 2s10s spread to roughly the low-50 bp area, which lends the dollar support on rate differentials. DXY is holding in the upper half of the 98 to 100 band. If Friday’s core PCE lands softer than 0.3 percent MoM and near 2.8 percent YoY, December odds can rebuild quickly. Timeframe bias: Short term 🔺 bullish.
🔻 EUR: A steadier dollar and a still-positive U.S. term structure cap EURUSD near 1.16. The ECB is set to hold, so Friday’s flash HICP is the swing factor; a stickier services print would weigh on periphery spreads and EUR. Technicals: 1.1550 first support, 1.1700 then 1.1750 if U.S. data disappoint. Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.
⚖️ GBP: Sterling is range-bound into next week’s BoE, with markets toggling between a small November cut and a hold. The pivot for cable sits near 1.3140 to 1.3150; below there risks a slide toward 1.3050 if U.S. yields stay firm. Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
⚖️ CAD: Oil’s constructive weekly draw offsets a firmer USD tone, leaving USDCAD heavy on rallies. Brent near 64 to 65 and a material U.S. crude inventory decline support dips, but front-end Canada is anchored after the recent cut. Levels: 1.3820 support, 1.3940 resistance. Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
🔻 CHF: With the SNB at 0.0 percent and risk a touch firmer, CHF underperforms on the crosses. EURCHF is stabilizing just under 0.93, while USDCHF tracks DXY. If USDJPY sprints toward 155 or equities wobble, CHF can catch a haven bid. Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish on CHF.
🔻 JPY: The BoJ held policy and did not tighten guidance, keeping wide differentials in place. USDJPY sits near 153 with intervention sensitivity rising toward 155. Dips likely stay shallow unless PCE underwhelms and pulls the U.S. front end down. Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish on JPY.
⚖️ AUD: A softer dollar would normally help, but China-sensitive sentiment and next week’s RBA hold expectations limit topside. AUDUSD clusters around 0.65 to 0.66; buy dips toward 0.6550 only if U.S. data softens. Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
⚖️ NZD: The early-October cut keeps NZD data-dependent and reactive to global risk. NZDUSD holds near the high-0.57s to 0.58 zone; spreads versus AUD and USD argue for range trading unless risk extends. Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
🪙 Gold: Trading near 3,960 to 3,980. A firmer dollar and higher real front-end yields cap bounces; reclaiming 4,000 would re-energize momentum.
🛢 Oil: Brent near 64 to 65. The large U.S. draw counters the risk of modest OPEC+ supply creep; sustained closes above 65 would signal tighter balances into year-end.
📈 Stocks: The cut supports risk, but Powell’s pushback on December keeps leadership narrow. Follow-through depends on Friday’s PCE and Eurozone inflation.
🧠 Fed split steadies dollar as oil holds after big draw
Published: 10/30/2025