Published: 10/2/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on. A rare ADP payroll decline and a federal data blackout push traders toward tier-two indicators, keep gold near records, and lean the front end lower. Until official data resumes, policy probabilities and technicals dominate.

Currency Outlooks

🔺 USD:
Futures imply a very high chance of a 25 bp cut on October 29 after ADP showed a 32k drop in September and August turned negative. The 2-year ~3.53–3.56% and 10-year ~4.10–4.18% keep 2s10s ~+50–60 bp, which tempers dollar upside when growth worries rise. With the shutdown, watch private layoff and sentiment gauges for intraday direction. DXY support ~97.80, resistance ~98.80 then 99.20. Nuance, a rapid reopening plus firmer ISM-services could spark a squeeze, but the burden of proof sits with stronger data.

🔺 EUR:
The euro rides softer USD and an ECB likely on hold Oct 30 as inflation prints 2.2% headline and 2.3% core. EUR remains most sensitive to U.S. rates and equities while the data calendar is distorted. EURUSD support 1.1700–1.1730, resistance 1.1815–1.1860. A sustained topside break needs either a deeper U.S. growth scare or a further drop in front-end yields.

🔺 JPY:
BoJ hike risk is live at roughly 50–60% for late October, and lower U.S. front-end yields narrow differentials. USDJPY resistance 148.80 and 150.00, support 147.50 then 146.50. A softer U.S. data mix plus any hint of BoJ tightening bias is a volatility event lower.

⚖️ GBP:
Sterling trades ranges with BoE seen holding near term. With U.K. catalysts light, GBP is mostly a USD and risk proxy. 1.3400 support, 1.3600 resistance, a daily close above 1.3600 opens 1.3720.

🔻 CAD:
Oil softness and a BoC already in easing mode cap CAD. OPEC+ added +137 kbpd in October and is discussing a larger November hike, while Kurdistan flows have resumed, all of which lean against crude. USDCAD supported above 1.3850, with 1.3950–1.4000 topside magnets unless Brent reclaims the low-70s.

⚖️ AUD:
RBA held 3.60% and swaps imply roughly one-third odds of a November cut. AUD stays reactive to global risk and China headlines. 0.6500 support and 0.6670 resistance frame near-term trades. A sustained break above 0.6670 targets 0.6750.

🪙 Gold: Bid on lower real-rate expectations and shutdown uncertainty. Price holds near 3,865–3,875 with momentum intact unless front-end yields back up.

🛢 Oil: Bearish skew persists while OPEC+ considers faster supply restoration and Kurdistan flows return. Without a quick reclaim of the low-70s, energy FX underperforms.

📈 Stocks: Growth-heavy indices benefit from easier-Fed bets and falling short-end yields. If the shutdown drags, defensives and quality leadership should persist.

Playbook: With official U.S. data disrupted, tier-two series matter more. Watch Challenger job cuts and ISM-services, plus central-bank speak. In Europe, the 2.2% and 2.3% HICP mix argues for an October ECB hold. In Japan, BoJ communication and board splits keep hike odds elevated into month-end.