← Back to posts🧠Markets mark time as dollar slips before data storm

🧠Markets mark time as dollar slips before data storm

Published: 2/10/2026

Good morning traders from a mostly cloudy, puddle-splashed IntelliTrade desk. It is a chilly 2–7°C kind of day with low clouds and showers creeping in later, which fits the mood on screens: visibility is limited, the big US data are still just ahead, and markets are feeling their way through dollar softness, metals noise and tech rotation.



Overall Market Sentiment



The mood is cautious, mildly risk on, dollar softer. The US Dollar Index is trading around 96.9, extending a three session pullback from last week’s highs near 97.8 and sitting close to the lower end of its one year range, as investors lean into the idea that upcoming data might not justify very restrictive policy for much longer.


Gold has clawed back above the psychologically important 5,000 dollars per ounce, with spot prices around 5,020–5,060 and front month futures near 5,060, after buyers stepped back in following the early February crash.Silver has rebounded even more sharply from its lows and is up more than 20 percent from the post-Warsh trough, which underlines how violent position clearing had become in the precious metals space.


Oil is firming again. Brent crude front month is just under 69 dollars, helped by steady demand, some renewed supply worries and a slightly weaker dollar, although prices are still below the late January spike.


Equities are in rotation mode. Software and some tech names remain under pressure as AI disruption worries shake earnings assumptions, yet European stock indices just notched fresh record closes and Japanese equities have surged since the weekend election, while US benchmarks are roughly flat over the last couple of sessions.Bitcoin trades around the high 60,000s, still well below its October peak after a sharp drawdown, behaving more like a high beta macro asset than a hedge.





Policy and the week’s macro map



The main macro driver this week is the compressed US data calendar after the shutdown. The January Employment Situation report will be released tomorrow, Wednesday 11 February, instead of last Friday, and the January CPI follows on Friday 13 February. Both were delayed by a brief government funding lapse, so they now arrive back to back and will heavily influence how markets calibrate the new Fed leadership’s tolerance for inflation and slower growth.


Consensus expects modest job gains and a stable 4.4 percent unemployment rate, but with a high risk of downward revisions to 2025 job growth that could change the narrative about how strong the labour market really was.On CPI, the focus is on whether core inflation continues its incremental cooling or whether shelter and services prove sticky, which would challenge the recent dollar slide and renewed enthusiasm in metals and high beta FX.


Elsewhere, central banks are mostly in wait mode:


  • The ECB is holding its deposit rate at 2.0 percent and signalling comfort with inflation near target and modest growth.
  • The BoE kept Bank Rate at 3.75 percent but revealed a narrow vote and clear openness to cuts later this year.
  • The RBA is the outlier, having lifted its cash rate to 3.85 percent last week and hinting that it is not convinced inflation is fully tamed, which supports AUD.






Today and the rest of the week




Today, Tuesday



  • FX is largely in pre-data holding pattern. The dollar index is soft but not collapsing, EURUSD is hovering just under 1.19, GBPUSD is sitting in the mid 1.35s, and commodity currencies are edging higher as oil and metals stabilise.
  • Volatility is higher in gold, silver and crypto than in major FX, which is typical when the market is waiting for big macro prints but still has to react to position unwinds and cross-asset narratives such as AI-linked tech rotation.




The rest of the week



  • Wednesday 11 February: delayed January US jobs report. The market cares about the headline payrolls number, revisions to 2025, and wage growth. A weaker profile would deepen doubts about how far the Fed can lean on restrictive policy, while a resilient print keeps the door open to fewer cuts than markets priced at the start of the year.
  • Friday 13 February: January CPI. Core inflation is the focal point. Sticky prints would favour a partial USD rebound and renewed pressure on gold and high beta FX, while a clear disinflation step lower would likely reinforce the current soft-dollar, pro-metals, pro-carry mix.
  • Europe and UK: data is lighter, so EUR and GBP are more likely to respond to US releases and follow-up communication from ECB and BoE speakers, rather than domestic surprises.
  • Asia-Pacific: Japan digests the Nikkei surge after Prime Minister Takaichi’s win, Australia trades the RBA’s hawkish shift and China sentiment, while New Zealand eyes its late February policy meeting, with NZD reacting strongly to global risk swings.






Currency outlooks




🔻 USD – Softer ahead of jobs and CPI binary



The dollar is on the back foot. The DXY is around 96.9, down nearly a full point from last week’s highs, and there is active discussion about a possible short term rout if jobs and inflation both underwhelm.Futures pricing still implies fewer cuts than markets expected late last year, but speculative positioning has turned more negative on the dollar again as traders seek alternatives in gold, EM and the higher yielding commodity bloc.


Near term, the currency is in a data-dependent limbo. Weak jobs and benign CPI would reinforce the current slide and could push DXY toward 96.5 and below, while a resilient labour market and sticky core inflation would likely drive a sharp but not necessarily lasting bounce back toward the 97.5–98.0 zone.


For this week as a whole, risks for USD look tilted slightly to further weakness, simply because expectations have already shifted away from aggressive easing, yet the data could still argue for more patience on hikes and less confidence in growth.





🔺 EUR – Benefiting from softer USD and steady ECB stance



EURUSD is trading near 1.19, after recording a second consecutive recovery session and spending most of the last week between 1.18 and a bit above 1.19.The euro is supported by an ECB that is broadly comfortable with inflation around target and not in a rush to cut, along with a perception that the euro area is less exposed than the US to some of the most aggressive AI-driven tech repricing.


Growth is still only modest, so there is a limit to how far the single currency can appreciate without tightening financial conditions too much. Yet as long as the ECB stays patient and the dollar remains under pressure into the data cluster, risks for EUR versus USD lean mildly to the upside.


Market participants are watching the 1.18 area as first support and the 1.20 region as key resistance. A weak US data combination could give EURUSD a test of 1.20 again, while a strong US surprise would likely pull it back toward the lower end of the recent 1.17–1.19 range.





🔻 GBP – BoE dovish tilt and politics still weigh



Sterling remains fragile. GBPUSD has been oscillating between roughly 1.35 and 1.37, struggling to regain the late-January highs above 1.38 that were reached when the dollar was at its weakest.The close 5–4 vote at the last BoE meeting, with four members already backing a cut from 3.75 percent, continues to anchor expectations for earlier easing in the UK relative to the euro area, while domestic growth forecasts have been nudged lower.


On top of that, political noise around the UK government keeps a risk premium priced into sterling, which makes it harder for the currency to fully capitalise on dollar softness.


For this week, risks for GBP versus USD remain tilted toward weakness or, at best, heavy range trading. The 1.35 region is important near term support, while the 1.37–1.38 band is the area where rallies repeatedly struggled and where many desks still see selling interest emerging unless US data are decisively soft.





🔺 CAD – Benefiting cautiously from firmer oil and softer USD



The Canadian dollar has stabilised and modestly improved. USDCAD has drifted down toward the low 1.35s, at times printing around 1.355, after peaking above 1.37 earlier this month.Firmer oil in the high 60s and a weaker US dollar provide support, even though Canadian domestic data have been mixed and growth remains only moderate.


The Bank of Canada is close to its inflation target and is signalling patience, which means CAD trades mostly on external factors: US data, oil and global risk sentiment. For this week, risks for CAD versus USD lean slightly toward further strength, particularly if the US numbers are on the softer side and oil holds near current levels. A return toward 1.35 is plausible in that scenario, while a strong US data surprise coupled with any pullback in crude would likely push USDCAD back into the 1.37 region.





🔺 CHF – Franc quietly grinds stronger as rates and risk support it



The Swiss franc remains firm, with USDCHF around 0.767–0.77, near the low end of recent ranges after several sessions of franc outperformance.Low Swiss inflation and a still very low policy rate keep the central bank comfortable with a relatively strong currency as insurance against imported price shocks, especially while global data and politics remain noisy.


Safe-haven demand is not extreme, but it has a background bid as markets worry about AI-driven tech volatility, delayed US data and lingering geopolitical risk around energy. For the next few sessions, risks for CHF versus USD lean modestly toward further franc strength, with traders eyeing 0.765 as near support on USDCHF and the 0.78–0.79 zone as resistance if the dollar stages any corrective bounce.





⚖️ JPY – Yield gap still dominates, but softer USD offers some relief



The yen is attempting to stabilise after a period of renewed weakness. Spot indications and recent commentary suggest USDJPY has retreated from the very top of the 155–157 area, helped by the softer dollar and some profit taking after the post-election rally in Japanese equities.


The structural story has not changed much: the Bank of Japan policy rate near 0.75 percent keeps the yield gap wide, and authorities are still signalling a gradual rather than aggressive normalisation path, especially with domestic growth only slowly improving.At the same time, repeated tests of the high 150s have made markets more sensitive to potential official pushback.


For this week, risks for JPY look mixed. A soft US data combination and any wobble in global risk could give yen bulls some traction and drag USDJPY lower, while strong US prints that push yields higher again would likely send the pair back toward the upper part of the recent range and keep intervention risk in focus.





🔺 AUD – RBA hike and soft USD keep Aussie on the front foot



The Australian dollar continues to outperform many peers. AUDUSD is trading around 0.707, just under its recent high near 0.709, after the RBA’s 25 basis point hike to 3.85 percent and guidance that more tightening remains possible if inflation stays sticky.That move has turned AUD into one of the few G10 currencies where the policy debate is about how high, not how soon cuts should come.


The softer dollar helps, as does stabilisation in gold and industrial metals. For this week, risks for AUD versus USD lean clearly to the upside, as long as US data are not so strong that they trigger a broad USD rebound. Traders highlight 0.70 as key psychological and technical support and the 0.71–0.715 region as the next resistance band where some profit taking would be natural on first tests.





⚖️ NZD – Kiwi consolidates gains, watching AUD and US data



The New Zealand dollar is consolidating. NZDUSD is around 0.603–0.605, slightly lower on the day but still up on the month, after a strong run fueled by better domestic data, firmer commodities and broad USD weakness.Recent price action shows the pair easing from overbought conditions as it digests gains and watches upcoming US numbers.


The RBNZ cash rate remains above 2 percent after last year’s cuts, and officials have indicated a preference to stay on hold for now, which leaves NZD highly sensitive to global risk appetite and the AUD performance.


Near term, risks for NZD versus USD look broadly balanced. Holding above 0.60 keeps the door open to another push toward 0.61–0.62 if US data undershoot and risk sentiment stabilises, while a strong US data surprise that revives USD buying would likely see a move back toward the high 0.59s or mid 0.58s as some of the recent kiwi outperformance is unwound.





Cross-asset wrap



  • 🪙 Gold:
    Gold is in recovery-and-consolidation mode around 5,020–5,060 dollars per ounce, having regained the 5,000 level after the violent early-month crash. The balance between a softer dollar, lingering inflation uncertainty and the prospect of compressed US data this week keeps volatility high and makes gold a direct expression of how much room markets think the Fed has to ease under new leadership.
  • 🛢 Oil:
    Brent crude trades just under 69 dollars, supported by modestly positive demand expectations and rolling concerns about supply disruptions, but also capped by the softer dollar and still-uncertain global growth. Markets treat current levels as a compromise between geopolitical risk and the idea that higher prices would start to squeeze activity if they rose much further.
  • 📈 Stocks:
    Global equities are in a tug of war between AI-linked tech jitters and broader macro resilience. Software and services have seen sharp falls as investors reassess who is a future winner and who is at risk of being disrupted, while European indices and parts of Japan have pushed to or stayed near record levels on the back of value and cyclicals. With the US jobs and CPI reports bunched into Wednesday and Friday, equity volatility is likely to stay elevated.
  • ₿ Crypto:
    Bitcoin trades around the high 60,000s, down sharply from October highs and still under pressure from higher real yields and reduced risk appetite. The current behaviour is classic high-beta macro: crypto is amplifying swings in equity and dollar sentiment rather than offsetting them, and this week’s data cluster will likely extend that pattern.






This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.



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