Good morning traders from a cool but clearer IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 4°C under mostly clear skies before cloud thickens and temperatures lift toward 14°C, so top up the coffee and let’s get into the week.
Overall Market Sentiment:
The mood is risk-off and defensive. Brent is back above $110, the US 10-year yield has pushed to about 4.42%, and the dollar is firm again as markets price a longer period of tight policy and a bigger inflation shock from the Gulf conflict. Equity markets are under pressure, and the broad setup looks more like “higher energy, higher yields, slower growth” than a normal growth scare.
One unusual feature is that gold is not giving the clean haven response many would expect. Rising real yields, margin-related selling, and a move toward cash are limiting the usual safe-haven playbook, which tells you the market is still treating inflation and liquidity stress as the bigger near-term story.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics remains central because the latest U.S.-Iran countdown and threats around the Strait of Hormuz keep supply disruption, shipping risk, and infrastructure damage squarely in the macro conversation. That matters because oil moves first, then bond yields, then currencies and equities, especially for energy-importing economies.
Key reference: Brent holding the $110 to $113 area is enough to keep stagflation fears alive and to keep USDJPY close to the 160 zone that usually draws attention.
Assumption: no durable de-escalation headline arrives before Friday, so the energy risk premium remains elevated through week end.
Macro calendar
Today
- The scheduled macro slate is lighter, with ECB appearances, EU March consumer confidence, and U.S. January construction spending the main diary items.
- Markets are still likely to trade oil, yields, and the dollar first, with data acting more as confirmation than as the main driver.
The rest of this week
- Tuesday, March 24: Flash PMIs for the euro area, UK, and U.S. are the clearest early read on whether activity is absorbing the energy shock or starting to crack.
- Wednesday, March 25: UK February CPI is the key UK release, and it lands just days after the BoE warned that higher energy prices could lift inflation again.
- Thursday, March 26: U.S. durable goods orders matter for the “real economy vs inflation shock” debate, and Norges Bank delivers a policy rate decision the same morning.
- Friday, March 27: UK retail sales round out the week, but by then the bigger question may simply be whether oil is still above $100 and yields are still pressing higher.
🔺 USD - Dollar supported by oil, yields, and Fed patience
The dollar still has the clearest macro support because the Fed held the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% and is still signaling a cautious, data-dependent stance while markets reprice the inflation damage from higher energy costs. The US 10-year near 4.42% keeps the rate backdrop supportive, and the curve is not offering much relief to risk assets when oil is this high. This week’s U.S. PMIs and Thursday’s durable goods report matter because they will show whether growth is bending under the energy shock or still holding up better than peers. What could change the bias is a sharp fall in oil or softer activity data that pulls yields lower and lets growth worries overtake inflation worries again.
🔻 EUR - Energy exposure keeps the euro heavy
EURUSD is trading around 1.155, and the euro remains vulnerable when oil leads the tape because the euro area is more exposed to imported energy costs than the U.S. The ECB kept rates unchanged and now sees 2026 inflation at 2.6% with growth at 0.9%, which is an awkward mix of higher inflation and weaker activity. That leaves Tuesday’s flash PMI release as the key regional check on whether the growth side of that squeeze is getting worse. The 1.15 to 1.16 area remains the main zone markets are watching, and a calmer energy backdrop is still the cleanest way for EUR sentiment to stabilize.
🔻 GBP - Sterling is steadier than EUR, but still exposed to inflation and growth tension
GBPUSD is hovering around 1.333, with sterling holding up better than the euro but still struggling to fully escape the firmer dollar backdrop. The BoE kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, while UK wage growth slowed to 3.8% and unemployment sat at 5.2%, which leaves policymakers balancing a cooler labour market against renewed energy-led inflation risk. Wednesday’s CPI report is the main domestic test this week. Markets are likely to keep using 1.33 as nearby support and 1.35 as the recovery area if inflation does not surprise sharply to the upside.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but broad USD strength still caps the upside
CAD has a natural terms-of-trade tailwind from stronger crude, but that support is being offset by the broader USD bid and higher U.S. yields. The BoC held at 2.25% last week and made clear it would react if higher energy prices started feeding persistent inflation. That leaves USDCAD near 1.37 in a classic push-pull setup, with the 1.36 to 1.38 area still the key balance zone while oil remains headline-driven.
🔺 CHF - Haven demand still favors a firmer franc, especially versus EUR
CHF remains supported by defensive flows, even if the dollar is also attracting haven demand. The SNB left its policy rate at 0% and said it is more willing to intervene if franc strength becomes too rapid, which matters because Swiss inflation is still only around 0.1%. USDCHF near 0.79 shows the dollar is still winning some haven demand, while the 0.90 to 0.91 area in EURCHF remains the cleaner stress barometer for franc strength. Near-term risks lean toward a stronger CHF, especially against EUR, if geopolitical stress stays elevated.
⚖️ JPY - 160 remains the attention zone
The BoJ held its policy rate at 0.75%, but USDJPY is still hovering around 159.5, which keeps intervention risk firmly in view. That tells you the yen is not getting a clean haven bid because higher oil and higher U.S. yields are still working against it through the rate-differential channel. Changes in Treasury yields matter more than local data in the near term, and the closer the pair gets to 160, the more sensitive the market becomes to official rhetoric. Risks remain mixed rather than cleanly bullish for JPY.
⚖️ AUD - Still trading more like a risk proxy than a pure rates story
AUDUSD is around 0.699, with the RBA’s move to 4.10% offering some rate support but not enough to overpower the broader risk-off mood. Mixed labour data, firm oil, and softer Asian equity sentiment are keeping AUD tied closely to global risk appetite and China-sensitive growth expectations. For now, it is behaving more like a risk proxy than a clean carry currency, with 0.69 to 0.70 the main reference zone.
🔻 NZD - Softer growth leaves the kiwi more exposed
NZDUSD is near 0.582, and the kiwi still looks like one of the more vulnerable G10 currencies when volatility rises. New Zealand’s economy grew only 0.2% in the fourth quarter, below expectations, while the RBNZ cash rate is 2.25% and its next OCR review is not until April 8. That leaves NZD trading mainly on global risk sentiment, China-related growth mood, and rate spreads rather than any near-term domestic catalyst. The 0.58 area remains the key pressure zone markets are watching this week.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,367/oz, near a four-month low and down more than 10% over the past week. The main drivers are a firmer dollar, higher real-yield expectations, and forced selling tied to broader market stress, while geopolitics is not providing its usual full cushion. Watch next: whether yields stabilize enough to let gold behave more like a hedge again. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is around $66/oz, deep in correction territory after a very sharp pullback from earlier 2026 highs. The main drivers are the stronger dollar, higher yields, and weaker industrial-growth sentiment, which means silver is getting hit from both the monetary and cyclical sides. Watch next: Tuesday’s PMIs for a cleaner read on the industrial-demand part of the story. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $112/bbl, holding near Monday’s highs and still more than 50% above late-February levels. Supply disruption fears, shipping risk around Hormuz, and strategic stockpiling are the dominant drivers, with de-escalation talk only acting as a partial counterweight so far. Watch next: any headline that changes the market’s view on how long the disruption lasts, because duration is now as important as the initial shock. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: US500 is around 6,488, below Friday’s level and well off the January peak near 7,003. Higher oil, a 10-year yield near 4.42%, and a firmer dollar are squeezing valuation-heavy sectors, while energy and more defensive pockets are holding up better. Watch next: this week’s PMIs, because a softer growth signal would deepen the stagflation concern rather than calm it. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $68.6k, closer to today’s low near $67.4k than the intraday high near $69.2k, so volatility is still elevated. The main macro drivers are liquidity conditions, the direction of yields, and broad risk appetite, which is why crypto has struggled to fully shrug off the oil-and-rates shock. Watch next: whether the dollar’s current bid extends, because that remains one of the clearest macro headwinds. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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