Good morning traders from a cool but sunny IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 6°C under bright skies and warming into the mid-teens later, so pour the coffee and settle in for a Tuesday session where easing oil is helping sentiment, but not removing the macro tension.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is cautiously risk-on. Hopes that Washington and Tehran can keep talking have pushed Brent back below $100, lifted Asian equities, and taken the dollar index down toward 98.3, near its weakest level since early March.
But this is not a clean all-clear. The Strait of Hormuz is still heavily disrupted, energy shipments remain constrained, and markets are now trying to balance a softer immediate oil shock against the reality that inflation pressure was already running hot before today’s producer-price data.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains central because the oil market is trading on whether shipping actually normalizes, not on headlines alone. Brent around the $98 area eases the immediate stagflation scare, but it is still high enough to keep central banks cautious and to leave energy-importing currencies exposed if talks stall again.
Assumption: today’s relief tone holds only if diplomacy keeps inching forward and vessel traffic through Hormuz shows more genuine improvement than markets have seen so far.
Macro Calendar
Today
- U.S. March PPI is due today at 8:30 a.m. ET, and it is the main scheduled macro release because markets need to know whether last week’s CPI shock is also feeding through producer prices.
- Big U.S. bank earnings are also in focus today, which matters for broader risk appetite because investors want an early read on credit conditions, margins, and how management teams are framing higher energy costs.
- The live wildcard remains Hormuz access and diplomacy. If shipping conditions improve, oil can stay under $100. If not, today’s relief move can fade quickly.
The rest of this week
- Wednesday brings U.S. import and export prices, which matter because energy and shipping costs are now a direct part of the inflation pipeline.
- China’s first-quarter GDP and March activity data are due midweek, and they matter for AUD, NZD, commodities, and wider risk sentiment because markets still need to know whether Asia can absorb this energy shock without a sharper growth wobble.
- Thursday brings U.S. industrial production and the ECB’s March meeting account, a useful combination for judging U.S. resilience and how uneasy Frankfurt is about another energy-led inflation pulse.
- Earnings stay macro-relevant through the week, with large U.S. banks setting the tone and TSMC reporting on Thursday as a read on capex, AI demand, and global tech sentiment.
🔻 USD - Dollar softer, but not fully broken
The dollar is under pressure because diplomacy hopes have taken away part of last week’s panic bid. Lower oil and a modest pickup in rate-cut expectations have also helped, with markets now seeing more room for the Fed to stay patient if inflation starts to cool from here. Even so, the front end of the U.S. curve still matters a lot because the inflation pipeline remains the market’s biggest unresolved question. Today’s PPI, then Wednesday’s import prices, are the next checkpoints for whether yields keep easing or turn back up. Risks lean toward further dollar softness if producer prices behave and oil stays under control. What could change that bias is a renewed jump in crude or a hotter inflation read that rebuilds yield support quickly.
🔺 EUR - Euro gets relief, but energy risk still caps it
The euro is benefiting from a softer dollar and from oil pulling back from the worst levels, with EURUSD trading around 1.1768. That helps in the short run because Europe is one of the clearest losers when imported energy stress spikes. But the underlying setup is still awkward: the ECB is facing renewed inflation risk at the same time growth remains fragile, which means the single currency is still trading with an energy premium attached to it. Markets are likely to keep watching the 1.17 to 1.18 area in EURUSD as the near-term reference zone. The bias stays constructive while oil remains off the highs, but it weakens fast if shipping conditions deteriorate again.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling firmer, but still not cleanly
Sterling is getting some help from the weaker dollar backdrop, but it is still a complicated story because the UK remains exposed to imported energy pressure. The pound was around 1.3429 against the dollar at the start of the week, and the broader 1.34 to 1.35 zone still looks like the key market reference. The Bank of England debate remains awkward because sticky inflation and softer growth are both visible at once. Risks look mixed, with a mild upside bias if the dollar keeps softening, but not much room for a clean extension if oil turns higher again.
⚖️ CAD - Loonie caught between weaker USD and weaker oil
CAD still has one of the messiest setups in G10. A weaker U.S. dollar should help, but Brent falling back below $100 also removes one of the loonie’s usual tailwinds, and Canada’s domestic backdrop still looks only middling. USDCAD had already traded down toward 1.3791, and the 1.38 to 1.39 zone remains the key area markets are watching. The near-term tilt is mixed, and it likely stays that way unless either oil or the dollar starts to dominate more clearly.
🔻 CHF - Franc likely to give back some haven premium
The franc looks more vulnerable today because the market mood is better and the immediate scramble for safety has eased. CHF still has its defensive role if headlines worsen, but when oil falls and the dollar softens at the same time, the need for a Europe-based haven also fades somewhat. USDCHF is more mixed because both sides can attract defensive demand, while EURCHF is the cleaner lens when Europe’s energy stress rises or falls. Near-term risks lean toward a weaker CHF if the diplomatic tone stays constructive.
⚖️ JPY - Lower oil helps, but intervention risk still hovers
The yen is getting some support from a softer dollar, with USDJPY around 159.02, but the move is not clean. Lower oil helps Japan on the terms-of-trade side, yet markets have also scaled back the chance of a Bank of Japan hike this month to about 32%, down from 57% on Friday, which limits how far the yen can run on fundamentals. That keeps the 159 to 160 area as the main attention zone, especially because moves above 160 still tend to revive intervention worries. The near-term bias looks mixed, with lower oil helping and policy uncertainty capping the rebound.
🔺 AUD - Aussie is getting paid for the relief trade
AUD is behaving like a classic risk and China-sensitive currency again. It is flirting with 0.71 and its highest levels in nearly a month, which tells you the softer dollar and lower oil are currently doing more of the work than domestic rates alone. The tilt stays constructive while risk sentiment holds up, with the 0.70 to 0.71 zone now the obvious reference area.
🔺 NZD - Kiwi stays constructive while risk sentiment holds
NZD is also benefiting from the weaker dollar backdrop, trading around 0.5871 and near the best levels in roughly a month. The kiwi still needs the global tone to cooperate, but it has the cleaner upside among the higher-beta currencies when markets are leaning toward diplomacy rather than escalation. NZDUSD remains centered on the 0.58 to 0.59 area, and the bias stays constructive unless oil and the dollar both turn back up.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,769.77, up 0.7% today and back above Monday’s softer levels as the dollar eases. The main drivers are the weaker USD and lower real-rate pressure first, with cooling inflation fears from cheaper oil helping at the margin. Watch next today’s PPI, because another softer inflation step would matter more than broad risk appetite alone. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [INFLATION].
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is in the mid-$70s and rising faster than gold, which suggests it is benefiting from both the softer dollar and a better cyclical mood. The main drivers are USD and yields first, with industrial demand hopes helping because the market is leaning toward de-escalation rather than deeper growth damage. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL].
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $97.90, back below the $100 mark after Monday’s spike above that area. The first drivers are renewed hopes for talks and a less panicked view on supply risk, but shipping disruptions and physical tightness are still keeping a firm floor under the market. Watch next whether actual Hormuz traffic improves, because headlines alone will not hold this pullback for long. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS].
- 📈 Stocks: Asia is firmer, with MSCI Asia-Pacific ex-Japan up 2% and the Nikkei gaining more than 2%, while U.S. and European futures are also higher. The main drivers are lower oil, a softer dollar, and a market that is willing to price hope on diplomacy again, with earnings now joining geopolitics as the next sentiment test. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK].
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $74,446, trading today between roughly $70,600 and $74,814, so volatility is active but still orderly. The main drivers remain liquidity expectations, real yields, and broad risk appetite, which means crypto is still behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK].
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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