Good morning traders from a cool and cloud-heavy IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam near 9°C under mostly grey skies, a brief shower risk early, and a steady chill through the afternoon, so get the coffee poured and settle in for a tense Thursday run through the markets.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood has swung back to cautious risk-off. Hopes for a quick easing in the Iran conflict faded after last night’s U.S. address gave no clear ceasefire path or reopening timeline for the Strait of Hormuz, and that pushed traders back toward the dollar while stocks fell and oil jumped again.
The bigger macro issue is that markets are once again trading the inflation shock before the growth shock. Brent has moved back above $106 to $107, yields have firmed, and Friday’s payrolls report now matters even more because a soft labor signal would collide with still-high energy prices and make the stagflation debate louder into the Easter break.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics is still the central driver because the market is not just reacting to military headlines, it is reacting to what they imply for oil flows, shipping risk, and inflation expectations. Brent above the $106 to $107 zone is the clearest reference point for FX right now because that level keeps the dollar supported, leaves Europe exposed through energy, and prevents a clean return to risk-on sentiment. Assumption: the near-term market is still pricing prolonged disruption risk rather than a quick normalization in Hormuz traffic.
Macro Calendar
Today
- U.S. weekly jobless claims are the main scheduled macro release today, and they matter because markets want a fresh read on whether labor softness is starting to build ahead of Friday’s payrolls.
- Markets will also keep trading every headline tied to Hormuz, tanker safety, and energy infrastructure because oil is still acting as the main transmission channel into FX, rates, and equities.
- Positioning into the long weekend matters more than usual today, since risk appetite is fragile and investors do not want to carry too much exposure into a headline-heavy backdrop.
The rest of this week
- Friday’s U.S. March payrolls report is the main event, with markets looking for about 60,000 jobs after February’s 92,000 decline, while the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.4%.
- A weaker payrolls number would revive the Fed-cut discussion, while a steadier result would keep the focus on oil-driven inflation pressure and support the current dollar bias.
- U.S. stock markets are closed for Good Friday on April 3, so any payroll surprise could hit FX and rates in thinner-than-usual conditions.
🔺 USD - Dollar regains control as haven demand returns
The dollar has recovered its footing because the market has moved back toward defense. Safe-haven demand, firmer yields, and the U.S. net-energy advantage are all helping at once, which is why the dollar index has pushed back around the 100 mark even without a fresh hawkish shift from the Fed. Friday’s payrolls now sit at the center of the story because the labor market has to weaken enough to matter more than inflation risk. Risks still lean toward further dollar firmness if oil stays high and payrolls do not miss badly. What would change that bias is a clear geopolitical off-ramp plus softer labor data that pulls yields lower.
🔻 EUR - Euro still looks exposed when oil moves higher
The euro is again trading on the wrong side of the energy story. March euro zone inflation has already moved back above target at 2.5%, while core eased to 2.3%, which leaves the ECB facing a difficult mix of softer growth and renewed headline price pressure. That is not a comfortable backdrop for the single currency because Europe remains more vulnerable than the U.S. to a fresh energy squeeze. Markets are likely to keep watching the 1.15 area in EURUSD as the main near-term support zone, with 1.16 above still the cap that needs calmer oil and better sentiment. Risks lean softer again if crude stays bid and growth concerns deepen.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling still has rate support, but the cushion is thinner
Sterling is still getting some support from higher UK rate expectations, but that support looks less secure than it did earlier in the week. The latest shift in market thinking is that April may be too soon for a Bank of England hike, while the broader energy shock is also lifting financial stability concerns and tightening household conditions. That leaves GBP caught between sticky inflation on one side and weaker growth on the other. The 1.32 area in GBPUSD remains the key reference, with 1.30 below as the broader zone markets would notice if the dollar keeps pressing higher.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but broad dollar demand still complicates the picture
CAD still has one of the messiest setups in G10. Higher oil should be a tailwind, but the loonie is also dealing with slower domestic growth, softer manufacturing momentum, and a Bank of Canada that says it will lean more on judgment because the outlook is unusually uncertain. That is why USDCAD is still being watched in the broader 1.39 to 1.40 zone rather than falling cleanly with stronger crude. The near-term tilt is mixed, but risks still lean toward a firmer USDCAD if safe-haven demand for the greenback stays in charge.
🔺 CHF - Franc still looks like the cleaner European haven
The franc remains the cleaner defensive currency against Europe in this backdrop. That is less about Swiss data right now and more about the simple fact that renewed energy stress hurts the euro zone more directly, which keeps EURCHF as the clearer lens than USDCHF. Against the dollar, the CHF picture is more balanced because both currencies are attracting haven demand. Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger CHF versus the euro, while the CHF story versus the dollar remains more mixed.
⚖️ JPY - Intervention risk is rising again as yields and oil pull the other way
The yen is still stuck between two forces that do not point in the same direction. Higher U.S. yields and higher oil are still bad for Japan’s currency, but USDJPY around 159.4 also keeps the pair close enough to 160 that intervention risk cannot be ignored. The Bank of Japan has made clear it is watching currency moves closely because a weak yen now feeds inflation more directly than before. That leaves JPY with a mixed short-term outlook: soft on fundamentals, but prone to sharp reversals if officials push back harder.
🔻 AUD - Aussie is back to trading as a risk proxy
AUD is again behaving more like a risk and China-sensitive currency than a pure rates story. Around 0.6878 and near the two-month lows seen earlier this week, it remains vulnerable if oil keeps squeezing global growth sentiment and equities stay under pressure. The bias stays soft unless geopolitical headlines improve enough to let risk appetite recover more cleanly.
🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains one of the clearest high-beta laggards
NZD is still one of the more exposed currencies when the market turns defensive. Near 0.5709 and also close to recent two-month lows, it remains highly sensitive to the same mix of firmer dollar demand, weaker risk appetite, and growth worries that is driving the broader macro tone. The tilt stays soft unless oil cools and the dollar loses momentum at the same time.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,664, down about 2% today and slipping from the two-week highs reached before last night’s speech. The main drivers are the firmer dollar and higher real-yield pressure first, while rising inflation fears are not helping enough because they are also pushing policy expectations in a less gold-friendly direction. Watch next Friday’s payrolls, because a softer labor number could ease yields faster than geopolitics alone. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [INFLATION]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $71.67 and falling faster than gold, which tells you the industrial side of silver is hurting as much as the precious-metals side is helping. The main drivers are the stronger dollar, firmer yields, and weaker growth sentiment, so silver is currently diverging negatively from gold on the growth channel. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $107.5 after jumping more than 6%, reversing much of Wednesday’s slide and moving back well above the $100 area. Supply disruption risk, tanker security, and the lack of a clear off-ramp for Hormuz are the dominant drivers, while demand worries remain secondary for now. Watch next whether any real change appears in physical shipping conditions, because headlines alone have not removed the energy premium. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: U.S. futures are down about 1%, European futures more than 1.5%, Japan fell 1.8%, and South Korea dropped 3.6%, so the market tone has clearly turned defensive again after Wednesday’s relief rally. The main drivers are higher oil, renewed stagflation worry, and de-risking ahead of the long weekend. Watch next whether today’s claims and tomorrow’s payrolls deepen the growth scare or steady it. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $66,475, with an intraday range of roughly $66,238 to $69,170, so volatility is elevated but still orderly relative to the broader macro shock. The main drivers remain liquidity, real yields, and general risk appetite, which means crypto is still behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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