Good morning traders from a cool but changeable IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 3°C under brief sunshine before rain bands roll through later, so settle in with a hot coffee as we unpack another session shaped by oil, yields and diplomacy headlines.
Overall Market Sentiment:
The mood is cautious and mixed, not outright panic but far from relaxed. Markets are still reacting to ceasefire talk, yet the bigger message from price action is that investors do not fully trust a clean de-escalation story while the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted and energy risk is still live.
What markets are pricing now is a stickier inflation backdrop with less room for central banks to ease. The dollar is holding near recent highs, Brent is back above $103, and rate markets have largely pushed out any easy Fed-cut story as energy costs keep feeding inflation worries.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains the central macro driver because it is no longer just a sentiment issue. The conflict has shut the Strait of Hormuz, lifted energy prices sharply, and turned every ceasefire headline into a direct input for inflation expectations, bond yields and FX pricing.
The key market reference today is Brent back in the $103 to $104 area after Wednesday’s drop, because holding above $100 keeps the inflation shock alive and supports the dollar more than a simple risk rebound would. That is why FX is still trading oil and policy repricing first, and growth worries second.
Assumption: markets will keep treating ceasefire signals as provisional until there is sustained evidence that Gulf shipping conditions are improving, not just political language turning softer.
Macro calendar
Today
- Energy and ceasefire headlines remain the main live catalyst, with Brent back above $103 and the dollar still near recent highs as markets reassess inflation risk almost in real time.
- ECB rhetoric matters because policymakers have kept tightening on the table if energy-led inflation starts to spread beyond fuel. That keeps the euro sensitive not just to growth data, but to any sign the ECB may have to lean hawkish again.
- Japan is also in focus, with USDJPY hovering near 160 and the BOJ publishing a new underlying inflation gauge at 2.2%, which reinforces the tension between tighter domestic inflation pressure and a still-fragile yen.
The rest of this week
- Friday’s UK retail sales report is the clearest scheduled UK growth check left this week, and it matters more after inflation stayed at 3.0% and consumer confidence weakened further.
- Friday’s final U.S. Michigan sentiment release is one of the few timely reads left on household inflation psychology and demand.
- The U.S. calendar is lighter than usual because fourth-quarter GDP third estimate and February personal income and outlays, including PCE, were moved to April 9, while February durable goods was pushed to April 7. That leaves headlines and policy communication doing more of the market-moving work than normal.
🔺 USD - Dollar firm, but now more headline-sensitive
The dollar still has the clearest macro support in G10. The market is treating higher energy prices as an inflation shock first, which keeps front-end Fed pricing relatively firm and leaves the greenback supported by both yield differentials and safe-haven demand. U.S. activity has slowed, but not enough to fully break the higher-for-longer narrative, especially with March business activity still showing inflation pressure coming through inputs. With GDP, PCE and durable goods delayed, this week offers fewer hard U.S. data points to challenge the dollar story, so oil and yields are doing most of the work. What could change the bias is a credible drop in crude and a broader rollover in U.S. yields that takes the inflation premium out of the market.
🔻 EUR - Euro squeezed between weak growth and a tougher ECB tone
The euro is still struggling because the euro area looks more exposed to the energy shock than the U.S. March surveys showed growth close to stalling, and consumer confidence has fallen to its weakest level since October 2023, which leaves the region looking vulnerable if energy costs stay high. At the same time, ECB officials are openly saying April is live if inflation risks broaden, so the euro is not getting a clean rate disadvantage story either. That leaves EURUSD trading as a fragile balance between weak growth and tougher policy language, with the 1.1500 to 1.1600 area still the obvious zone markets watch around spot. A firmer euro case would need calmer energy markets and some evidence that the growth slowdown is not deepening.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling supported by rates, capped by domestic demand worries
Sterling still has some rate support underneath it because UK inflation held at 3.0%, public inflation expectations jumped sharply, and the BoE is clearly not comfortable with second-round energy effects. But the domestic growth picture is also deteriorating, with business activity at its weakest since September, retail conditions soft, and consumer sentiment now at its weakest in over two years. That mix keeps GBP more resilient than some peers on rate expectations, but it also limits upside when the dollar is firm. GBPUSD around the 1.3300 to 1.3450 zone remains the near-term reference area. Sterling would look sturdier if inflation stays sticky without a sharper downturn in activity, but that balance is getting harder to maintain.
⚖️ CAD - Oil support helps, but the broad dollar still matters
CAD has a more balanced setup than most G10 peers because higher oil cushions the growth and external balance story for Canada. The problem is that USDCAD is still being pulled by broad dollar strength and recent domestic softness, which is why the pair has still traded up toward the 1.38 area even when crude has stayed elevated. The Bank of Canada is on hold at 2.25% but has warned it would act if energy-driven inflation starts to look persistent, so the policy gap with the Fed is not one-way. Near term, the 1.3700 to 1.3800 zone remains the key USDCAD reference area.
🔺 CHF - Franc supported, but the SNB remains an active brake
Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger CHF, especially against the euro. Safe-haven demand keeps the franc well bid, and EURCHF remains the cleaner lens for that story, but the SNB has made clear it is more ready to intervene if appreciation becomes excessive. That matters because Swiss inflation is only around 0.1% and a much stronger franc would pull it even lower. USDCHF is a more mixed haven contest, but overall the franc still looks supported while geopolitical stress stays elevated.
🔻 JPY - Yen still blocked by yields, even with intervention risk rising
JPY remains the weaker haven because U.S. yields and oil-driven inflation fears are still overpowering its defensive appeal. BOJ minutes showed policymakers still see the case for further hikes, and the new BOJ core gauge came in at 2.2%, which helps the bank argue that underlying inflation is closer to target than the headline data suggests. Even so, USDJPY near 159.4 is still close to the 160 area that tends to draw intervention attention, so the yen story stays split between policy normalization and official discomfort with weakness. The yen would recover more convincingly if U.S. yields fell and the BOJ’s tightening path became clearer at the same time.
🔻 AUD - Aussie still trading more as a risk proxy than a clean rate story
AUD has local rate support after the RBA’s move to 4.1%, and February inflation at 3.7% did not really clear the bank of further price-pressure concerns. But right now the Aussie is still behaving more like a risk and China-sensitive currency than a pure yield play, which is why it has struggled to build on rate support while the dollar stays firm. The near-term tilt remains soft, with 0.6950 to 0.7000 still the main AUDUSD zone markets are watching.
🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains vulnerable to growth worries and rate-spread swings
NZD still looks like the cleaner downside risk currency in this environment. The RBNZ has warned that a prolonged energy shock could force higher rates, but it is also dealing with an economy that is weaker than expected and still struggling to regain momentum, which keeps the policy story messy rather than supportive. That leaves NZDUSD around the 0.5800 area as a very sensitive barometer of both risk appetite and rate spreads. EURNZD can stay supported while global growth worries linger and New Zealand’s recovery remains fragile.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,477, down from Wednesday’s rebound and still well below its January peak. The main drivers are a firmer dollar and higher real-yield pressure first, with ceasefire headlines only creating short bursts of haven demand that have not fully stuck. Watch next whether another move higher in oil keeps rate fears strong enough to cap rebounds. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $69.90, tracking gold lower today and sitting well below its earlier 2026 highs. The pressure is coming from the same firmer-dollar and higher-yield mix, with weaker industrial-growth confidence adding an extra drag that gold does not carry to the same extent. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is trading in the $103 to $104 zone, back above $100 after Wednesday’s dip and still up more than 40% on the month. The key drivers are supply risk through Hormuz, doubts about how durable any ceasefire would be, and the inflation spillover that keeps markets sensitive to every headline. Watch next for anything concrete on shipping access rather than just diplomacy language. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: Equity tone is softer again, with Asia struggling for direction, South Korea and Hong Kong down, and European and U.S. futures leaning lower after Wednesday’s relief bounce. Higher oil, tighter policy expectations and uncertainty around whether diplomacy is real or temporary are the main drivers, with cyclicals and rate-sensitive names still under pressure. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is near the $70,800 zone, little changed on the day and still trying to stabilise after this week’s macro-driven volatility. The main drivers are dollar liquidity, real yields and broad risk appetite, with crypto trading more like a macro asset than a standalone story at the moment. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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