Good morning traders from a crisp but unsettled IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 6°C under bright skies before showers roll through later, so grab the coffee and settle in for a busy Monday.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is cautious to risk-off. Brent is back above $115, Asian equities are under pressure, and the dollar is holding firm as markets treat the energy shock as both an inflation problem and a growth drag.
The key repricing is in rates. Markets that began 2026 looking for Fed cuts are now entertaining the risk that policy stays restrictive for longer, while business surveys and sentiment data are already showing softer activity underneath the surface.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains central because disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is still feeding straight into oil, shipping and inflation expectations. Brent above $115 is the clearest market reference for FX right now: it keeps the dollar supported, leans against the euro and yen for different reasons, and makes commodity currencies more complicated than usual. Assumption: this view assumes no credible de-escalation headline changes the supply picture today.
Macro Calendar
Today
- Fed Chair Powell speaks later today, and markets will listen for how firmly he pushes back against renewed inflation fears and how he frames the balance between energy-driven price pressure and softer activity.
- Germany’s provisional March CPI and the euro area flash inflation estimate are due today. For the euro, this is the first real test of whether the oil shock is already moving from energy into broader price expectations.
- G7 finance and energy officials are also due to meet virtually. That matters because any coordinated language on supply, reserves, or emergency planning can move oil and risk sentiment quickly.
The rest of this week
- Tuesday brings U.S. JOLTS for February and the RBA’s March meeting minutes. That combination matters for labor-market resilience in the U.S. and for whether AUD trades more off rates or off global risk.
- Wednesday brings final March manufacturing PMIs and the U.S. ISM manufacturing survey. Markets want to see whether factory activity is absorbing the energy shock or already losing momentum.
- Friday is the big one, with U.S. March payrolls, final March services PMIs, and ISM services. If jobs soften again while prices stay sticky, the stagflation conversation gets louder.
🔺 USD - Dollar supported by oil and rates repricing
The dollar begins the day with support from both safe-haven demand and a firmer rates backdrop. Oil near $115 has pushed markets away from the earlier 2026 cut story and toward a view that the Fed may have to stay restrictive for longer, with yields rising alongside that shift. The front end of the U.S. curve remains the most sensitive part of the market because every inflation surprise now matters more than it did a few weeks ago. Powell today, JOLTS tomorrow, ISM midweek and payrolls on Friday are the checkpoints. Risks lean toward further dollar firmness if U.S. data does not crack decisively and oil stays elevated. What could change that bias is a genuine easing in energy stress paired with clearly softer U.S. labor and activity numbers.
🔻 EUR - Euro still on the wrong side of the energy story
The euro is trying to hold the 1.15 area, but it still enters the week on the wrong side of the energy shock. Euro area growth is already close to stalling while price pressures are set to be tested again today, leaving the ECB debate pulled between patience and the risk of renewed tightening. Some policymakers are openly keeping rate hikes on the table, while others argue it is still too early to assume an energy spike becomes entrenched inflation. That mix makes today’s German and euro area inflation numbers especially important for EURUSD. The near-term bias stays cautious, with markets watching whether 1.15 behaves like support or starts to give way. A cooler inflation read and calmer oil markets would make the euro look less vulnerable.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling still sturdier than most, but not cleanly
Sterling is still looking relatively sturdier than many majors, but the picture is not clean. The market has sharply repriced the Bank of England away from cuts as higher energy costs threaten another inflation pulse, yet policymakers are still cautious about leaning too hard against an economy with soft growth and a cooler labor market. That keeps the inflation and wage pass-through debate central for the pound this week. GBPUSD near 1.33 leaves the 1.32 to 1.34 zone as the main reference area. Risks are mixed, though a firmer dollar still leaves the balance slightly tilted lower unless UK rates continue to do the heavy lifting.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but the dollar still dominates
CAD should be getting cleaner support from crude, but the loonie is still trading in a more complicated way. USDCAD near 1.39 shows that broad dollar demand and concern about Canada’s softer domestic backdrop are still offsetting the usual oil tailwind. The Bank of Canada has already turned more cautious, and Canada’s recent job and export data have not helped. That leaves the 1.38 to 1.39 zone as the key market reference. Risks lean toward a firmer USDCAD unless oil strength broadens into a healthier risk backdrop rather than a pure supply shock.
🔺 CHF - Franc still has the cleaner defensive profile against Europe
The franc remains a defensive currency first and a low-inflation currency second. The SNB is already signalling greater readiness to intervene if CHF strength becomes excessive, which tells you haven demand is very much on its radar. EURCHF near the 0.92 area remains the cleaner lens, while USDCHF stays more mixed because the dollar is also attracting defensive flows. Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger CHF against the euro, but a more balanced picture against the dollar.
🔻 JPY - Intervention risk is rising, but yield pressure is still there
The yen is still stuck between haven logic and yield pressure. USDJPY traded through 160 before intervention warnings and firmer BOJ messaging pulled it back toward 159.7, which means markets are now dealing with both policy and political headline risk. Higher U.S. yields and higher oil are still bad news for Japan’s terms of trade, so the yen does not get a clean safe-haven benefit from this kind of shock. That is why intervention risk matters more at these levels than it did earlier in the month. The near-term tilt still leans softer for JPY on yield differentials, but the pair is now in a zone where official pushback can no longer be ignored.
🔻 AUD - Aussie still trading more as a risk proxy
The Aussie is behaving more like a risk proxy than a pure rates story for now. Tomorrow’s RBA minutes matter, but the bigger driver this week is whether risk sentiment stabilises enough for Australia’s relatively firm rate backdrop to matter again. AUDUSD has already touched a two-month low near 0.6843, so that area is the obvious reference point. Risks still lean to softness unless oil stops squeezing global growth sentiment.
🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains exposed to growth and risk sentiment
The kiwi starts the week with a softer bias as global growth worries, dollar firmness and rising energy costs all point the same way. NZDUSD around 0.5736 leaves the 0.57 zone as the main market reference, while domestic inflation worries are also resurfacing if the conflict drags on. That does not automatically help NZD, because it complicates the policy path while leaving the currency tied to risk appetite and rate spreads. The tilt improves only if broader sentiment steadies and the dollar loses momentum.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,529, rebounding from last week’s dip toward $4,098 but still far below January’s record highs. The main drivers are the dollar and real-rate repricing first, with inflation anxiety helping only partially because higher policy expectations are capping the metal. Watch next Powell and the payrolls report, because lower yields would matter more for gold than another general risk wobble. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [INFLATION]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $69.6, holding close to Friday’s recovery zone but still well below the earlier 2026 highs. It is broadly tracking gold on the rate and dollar story, but growth-sensitive industrial demand keeps it a little more exposed if PMIs soften further. Watch next Wednesday and Friday’s PMI releases for the industrial side of the story. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $115.5 after a record March surge and is still trading above last week’s highs rather than meaningfully retracing them. Supply disruption around Hormuz is the first driver, with demand fears only second for now because the market is still focused on lost barrels and shipping risk. Watch next any credible de-escalation headline, because that matters more than routine inventory chatter at this stage. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: Asian equities are sharply lower, with Japan down 3.4% and broad Asia down 1.3%, after Wall Street ended last week with the Dow in correction territory. The market is being driven by higher oil, higher yields and renewed stagflation fear, with rate-sensitive growth and cyclical areas carrying most of the pressure. Watch next whether this week’s U.S. data stabilises the growth narrative or deepens the concern that higher energy prices are arriving just as activity slows. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $67,226, trading within today’s roughly $65,033 to $67,643 range, which points to active but still contained volatility versus the wider macro stress. The main drivers are still dollar liquidity, real yields and general risk appetite, so crypto is behaving more like a macro asset than a standalone geopolitical hedge. Watch next whether yields keep rising after Powell, because that is still the cleaner macro pressure point. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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