Good morning traders from a cool but brighter IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam near 7°C after a few early showers and some breaks of sun ahead, coffee in hand as we set up today’s tape and next week’s macro risks.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Sentiment is cautious and mixed rather than outright panic. Oil has backed away from Thursday’s spike near $119, but Brent is still holding above $100, so inflation risk remains the market’s main anchor and yields are still reacting fast to every energy headline.
The second big story is policy divergence. This week’s central bank meetings pushed markets to reprice a more hawkish path outside the US, which has taken some momentum out of the dollar even though the broader backdrop is still defensive. That leaves FX more two-way, equities still fragile, and next week focused on growth gauges and inflation checks rather than fresh policy decisions.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics is central because the market is still trading an energy shock first and everything else second. Damage to regional energy infrastructure, shipping disruption risk, and uncertainty around supply routes have kept oil, gas, yields, and inflation expectations tightly linked.
Key reference: Brent in roughly the $105 to $110 zone is still high enough to keep the stagflation conversation alive, even after the pullback from this week’s extreme highs. Assumption: no durable weekend de-escalation removes the energy risk premium in a meaningful way.
Macro calendar
Today
- Canada has retail trade and producer and raw-material price data today, which matters for CAD because oil is supportive while domestic demand and pricing still shape the Bank of Canada outlook.
- Germany’s producer price data are due today, giving Europe a fresh read on pipeline price pressure just after the ECB stressed energy-led inflation risk.
- The bigger day-ahead theme is market digestion: can Brent stay off the $119 spike, and can the dollar keep losing ground even with oil still above $100.
The week ahead
- Tuesday, March 24: flash PMIs for the euro area, UK, and US are the cleanest early read on whether growth is absorbing the energy shock or starting to crack.
- Wednesday, March 25: UK February CPI is the key UK event because it lands right after the BoE turned more alert to renewed inflation risk.
- Thursday, March 26: US durable goods orders and Norway’s policy decision stand out. Durable goods will matter for the “real economy vs inflation shock” debate, while Norges Bank is one of the few places where another hawkish step is clearly live.
- Friday, March 27: UK retail sales round out the week. One extra wrinkle for USD markets is that the US February Personal Income and Outlays release was pushed back to April 30, so next week’s US focus stays more on surveys and activity than on the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Currency outlooks
🔻 USD - Dollar still firm structurally, but losing some short-term momentum
The USD still has a supportive macro backdrop because the Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and signaled that the Middle East shock adds inflation uncertainty to an already sticky picture. Yields remain elevated, with the 10-year around the low-4.2% area, but the curve story now matters more: the market is no longer just pricing a cautious Fed, it is also pricing a more hawkish response elsewhere.
That is why the dollar index has slipped back toward 99.5 even though oil is still high. Next week’s flash PMIs and durable goods matter because they can decide whether the US still looks relatively resilient or whether growth concerns start to overpower inflation concerns. What could change the current bias most quickly is a larger drop in oil or a run of softer US activity data that drags yields lower.
⚖️ EUR - Euro supported by hawkish repricing, but energy risk still limits upside
EURUSD is around 1.156, and the euro has gained this week because the ECB held rates at 2.0% while stressing that higher energy prices raise near-term inflation risk and cloud the growth outlook. That is helping the euro on rate expectations, but it is also a reminder that Europe remains highly exposed if the energy shock lingers.
The key domestic event next week is Tuesday’s flash PMI set. If activity holds up, EUR can keep leaning on the hawkish repricing story; if PMIs soften, the growth side of the ECB dilemma moves back to the front. For EURUSD, markets will keep watching whether 1.15 holds and whether the pair can stay in the mid-1.16 conversation.
🔺 GBP - Sterling firmer, but the inflation and wage debate is getting trickier
GBPUSD is around 1.341, and sterling has outperformed this week because the BoE held at 3.75% but sounded more worried about inflation staying embedded. The complication is that wage growth slowed to 3.8% and unemployment rose to 5.2%, so the UK is not giving policymakers a clean inflation-only picture.
That keeps global risk sentiment important for GBP, especially when oil is doing so much of the macro driving. Next week’s UK CPI is the main event, with 1.32 and then 1.35 still the main GBPUSD reference areas markets are likely to keep checking.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but Fed-BoC spreads and broad USD tone still matter
CAD has an obvious oil tailwind, but it is not getting a clean run because safe-haven demand and higher US yields still support the USD side of the pair. The BoC held at 2.25% and made clear it would react if the energy shock started feeding persistent inflation.
USDCAD is sitting in the mid-1.37s, and that makes sense in this environment: stronger crude pulls one way, broader dollar demand pulls the other. Near term, the pair still looks most sensitive to oil direction and US yields, with 1.35 to 1.38 the key balance zone.
🔺 CHF - Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger franc
CHF remains a classic defensive currency, but this week showed that the SNB also wants to stop the franc from overshooting. The SNB left its policy rate at 0% and explicitly said its willingness to intervene in FX markets has increased because of the conflict.
USDCHF is around 0.789 and EURCHF is near 0.913, which says the clearer CHF strength story is still versus the euro rather than versus the dollar. Near-term risks lean toward a firmer CHF overall if geopolitical stress stays elevated, even if official resistance to excessive strength remains in the background.
⚖️ JPY - Yields still limit the haven story, but 160 stays important
USDJPY is around 158.4, still uncomfortably close to the 160 area that tends to draw policy attention. The BoJ held at 0.75%, but its tone stayed hawkish enough to keep an April move in the conversation, especially with oil and yen weakness both feeding imported inflation.
That keeps JPY caught between two forces: haven demand on one side, and wide rate differentials on the other. If US yields cool, JPY can strengthen more cleanly; if oil stays high and Treasuries stay firm, USDJPY can stay sticky in the upper-150s.
⚖️ AUD - Acting as both a rates story and a risk proxy
AUDUSD is around 0.709, and AUD has support from the RBA’s move to 4.10%, which makes it one of the clearer hawkish stories in G10 right now. But in day-to-day trading it is still behaving partly like a risk proxy because oil volatility and global yields are setting the tone.
China helps at the margin when sentiment steadies, but the near-term question is whether markets keep rewarding yield support or go back to punishing risk-sensitive currencies. The main zone markets will keep watching is roughly 0.70 to 0.71.
🔻 NZD - Softer domestic growth keeps the kiwi more vulnerable
NZDUSD is around 0.588, and the kiwi still looks like the higher-beta sibling in a market dominated by oil, yields, and shifting rate spreads. New Zealand’s GDP rose just 0.2% in the December quarter, which was softer than expected, while the RBNZ is still at 2.25% and not in the same hawkish place as Australia.
That makes NZD sensitive to both global risk sentiment and relative rate pricing. NZDUSD around 0.58 to 0.59 remains the obvious pressure zone, and a calmer risk backdrop would be needed to reopen a more durable move toward 0.60.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,717/oz, rebounding from Thursday’s near two-month low and still sitting below the recent $4,800 breakdown zone. The main drivers are the stronger dollar and higher real-rate backdrop first, with geopolitics and inflation hedging only providing a partial floor. Watch next: whether next week’s growth data cool yields enough to stabilise bullion further. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is around $73.8/oz, up on the day but still well below the low-80s levels seen before this week’s rate repricing hit hard. USD strength, higher yields, and softer industrial-growth confidence are the main pressure points, even as Friday’s bounce shows some oversold relief. Watch next: the flash PMI set for a cleaner read on the industrial side of the story. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $107/bbl, down from Thursday’s spike near $119 but still far above pre-shock levels. Supply disruption fears, shipping risk, and uncertainty over how much lost regional energy output can be replaced remain the dominant drivers. Watch next: weekend geopolitical headlines, because oil is still the first market to move and the one that keeps dragging rates and FX behind it. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: US500 is coming off a 6,606 cash close, below the January record near 6,979, with futures only modestly steadier after Thursday’s sell-off. The top drivers are still higher oil, higher yields, and renewed stagflation fear, with defensives and energy holding up better than rate-sensitive growth. Watch next: next week’s PMIs to see whether the growth side of the market can regain any footing. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $70.5k, trading near the lower half of today’s $68.8k to $70.9k range and still well below the rebound highs seen earlier this week. The main drivers are liquidity conditions, yields, and broad risk appetite, which is why crypto has struggled to fully ignore the oil-and-rates shock. Watch next: whether the dollar’s weekly pullback extends, because that would ease one of the main macro headwinds. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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