Good morning traders from a bright but chilly IntelliTrade HQ, with Amsterdam starting near 3°C under mostly sunny skies and warming toward 15°C later, so pour the coffee and settle in as we map today’s tape and the rest of this week.
Overall Market Sentiment:
The mood is cautious to risk-off. Fresh attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have pushed Brent above $112 at the peak, lifted bond yields, and pulled markets back toward an inflation-shock mindset just as policymakers are trying to stay on hold.
This is not full panic, but pricing has clearly shifted toward fewer cuts, firmer USD support, and more pressure on equities and high-beta currencies. The Fed left rates at 3.50% to 3.75% and kept only one cut in its 2026 projections, which reinforces the idea that policy relief may come more slowly than markets hoped.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics is central today because the latest escalation directly hit regional energy assets and widened fears around supply disruption, shipping risk, and a fresh jump in inflation expectations. That matters for FX because oil is moving first, then yields, then the USD and global risk sentiment.
Key reference: Brent pushing into the $110 to $113 area is the zone that keeps the market talking about stagflation rather than simple growth resilience.
Assumption: there is no durable de-escalation headline before week-end, so the energy risk premium stays elevated into Friday.
Macro calendar
Today
• SNB policy day starts early, with the Swiss monetary policy assessment scheduled for 09:30 CET and the news conference at 10:00, while the BoE publishes its March decision and minutes at 12:00 London time.
• The ECB decision is due at 14:15 CET, followed by the press conference at 14:45 CET, making Europe the main policy focus for the afternoon.
• UK labour data already showed wage growth slowing to 3.8%, which adds a growth-cooling wrinkle to today’s BoE inflation debate.
• In the US, weekly jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed survey are the main data points, but oil and central bank language are still likely to dominate the reaction function.
The rest of this week
• Friday’s calendar is lighter, with Canada retail sales and producer-price measures plus euro area current account and trade data as the main scheduled releases.
• The bigger theme into Friday is digestion: markets will spend the session repricing whatever the ECB, BoE, and SNB say about energy-led inflation risk.
• If oil stays above $110, backward-looking data may matter less than the question of whether central banks are willing to tolerate a temporary energy shock or worry about second-round inflation.
🔺 USD - Dollar supported by oil, yields, and a slower easing path
The USD still has the clearest macro support because the oil shock is lifting inflation concerns and keeping the rates market cautious about easing. The Fed held the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, still points to only one cut in 2026, and the US 10-year is back around 4.28%, which keeps the yield backdrop firm.
The curve is not offering much relief to risk assets either, with the front end still firm and the long end staying elevated as markets reprice inflation risk rather than a fast slowdown. That helps the dollar keep its defensive premium, even if DXY is only modestly above 100 rather than breaking away higher.
What could change the bias is a quick drop in oil or softer US data that drags yields lower and lets growth concerns overtake inflation fears again.
🔻 EUR - Euro pressured by energy exposure and ECB caution
EURUSD is trading around 1.146, but the euro remains vulnerable when oil leads the tape because the euro area is highly exposed to imported energy costs. The ECB’s last policy decision left rates unchanged at 2.00%, and today’s meeting starts from that same cautious base.
Markets are looking for firm language rather than an immediate move, with policymakers expected to stress inflation vigilance while avoiding any message that sounds like panic. That leaves EURUSD leaning on the 1.14 to 1.16 zone, with downside pressure more likely if oil and US yields both stay elevated.
Friday’s euro area trade and current-account releases are useful context, but today’s ECB tone matters far more for the near-term euro story.
⚖️ GBP - Pound steadier than the euro, but growth still looks fragile
Sterling has held up better than many European peers this month, helped by a sharper repricing in UK front-end rates, but cable near 1.327 still reflects a firm USD backdrop. Today’s wage data showed regular pay growth slowed to 3.8%, which supports the idea that the labour market is cooling even as energy-driven inflation risks reappear.
That leaves the BoE facing the familiar inflation-versus-growth tension, only now with oil making the inflation side of the argument louder again. Markets are likely to keep watching 1.32 as nearby support and 1.34 to 1.35 as the recovery zone if the policy message is not as hawkish as feared.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but the broad dollar still caps the upside
CAD has a natural terms-of-trade tailwind from stronger crude, but that support is being offset by the broader USD bid and tighter global financial conditions. The BoC held at 2.25% yesterday and made clear it would act if higher energy prices started feeding persistent inflation.
That leaves USDCAD near 1.372 in a classic push-pull setup: oil is CAD-positive, but risk aversion and a firm USD keep the pair sticky. The 1.36 to 1.38 zone remains the key balance area markets are watching.
🔺 CHF - Haven support is clear, especially against the euro
CHF remains supported by defensive flows, even if the dollar is also attracting haven demand. USDCHF is near 0.792 and EURCHF is around 0.909, which keeps the franc’s strength most visible against the euro rather than the dollar.
The SNB decision is due today, and the bank comes into the meeting with inflation still subdued and with markets expecting it to rely more on intervention than rate changes if the franc strengthens too quickly. Near-term risks lean toward a stronger CHF, especially if geopolitical stress stays elevated.
⚖️ JPY - Haven demand is still being blunted by yield differentials
The BoJ held its policy rate at 0.75% by an 8-1 vote, and USDJPY is still hovering near 159.7, which is close enough to 160 to keep intervention talk alive. That tells you the yen is not getting a clean haven bid because higher oil and higher US yields are still working against it.
Japan’s energy import exposure makes this even trickier, because a stronger oil shock hurts the macro backdrop while US-Japan rate differentials remain wide. So near-term risks look mixed: risk aversion helps JPY in theory, but yield pressure keeps limiting the move.
⚖️ AUD - Rate support exists, but it is still trading like a risk proxy
AUDUSD is around 0.704, and today’s labour data were mixed rather than cleanly strong: employment rose sharply, but unemployment also ticked up to 4.3% and hours worked fell. That keeps the currency behaving as a hybrid, but in this tape it still looks more like a risk proxy than a pure rates story.
China’s firmer early-year activity data help a little in the background, yet oil-led volatility is the louder driver right now. The main reference zone remains 0.70 to 0.71.
🔻 NZD - Softer domestic growth leaves the kiwi more exposed
NZDUSD is around 0.582, and the kiwi still looks like one of the more vulnerable G10 currencies when volatility rises. New Zealand’s fourth-quarter GDP rose only 0.2% quarter on quarter, missing expectations, which keeps the domestic story softer even before the latest energy shock is fully felt.
That means rate spreads and global risk sentiment matter even more than usual, while firmer China data only help at the margin. NZDUSD is still watching 0.58 closely, and EURNZD near 1.97 shows how much of the move is really about relative fragility rather than kiwi-specific strength.
Cross-asset wrap
• 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,850/oz, off its one-month low but still well below recent highs after yesterday’s sharp drop. The main drivers are still the USD and real-yield backdrop first, with geopolitics and inflation hedging providing only a partial floor. Watch next: whether today’s policy language slows the dollar’s rebound or keeps real yields heavy. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
• 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is around $74 to $75/oz, down from the low-$80s earlier this week and still lagging gold after the Fed and oil repricing. The top drivers are a firmer rate backdrop, a strong dollar, and softer industrial-growth confidence as equities wobble. Watch next: whether risk sentiment stabilizes after today’s central bank cluster. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
• 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $112/bbl, back near this week’s highs after peaking around $112.86 earlier today. Supply disruption fears, shipping risk, and damage to regional energy infrastructure are dominating the tape, while policy measures and reserve talk are only acting as partial offsets. Watch next: any concrete security or reserve-release response that changes the market’s view of duration rather than just headlines. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
• 📈 Stocks: US500 is around 6,627, while Asia has already taken the harder hit, with Japan down more than 3% and broader regional equities also sharply lower. The drivers are simple and explicit: higher oil, higher yields, and renewed stagflation fear, with defensives and energy holding up better than rate-sensitive growth. Watch next: whether the ECB, BoE, and SNB sound stabilizing or add to the inflation anxiety. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK]
• ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $70.5k, near the day’s lows after trading as high as $74.3k earlier in the session. The main macro inputs are still liquidity conditions, the direction of yields, and broad risk appetite, which is why crypto has struggled to hold the earlier rebound. Watch next: whether the slight pause in the dollar extends or reverses. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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