Good morning traders from a wet and unsettled IntelliTrade HQ, with Amsterdam near 9°C under light rain and slick streets, so pour a stronger coffee and settle in as we map the final trading day of the week.
Overall Market Sentiment:
The mood is cautious to risk-off into the weekend. Oil is back above $110, bond yields are rising again, and equities are struggling to hold relief rallies because markets still do not trust that the Strait of Hormuz story is close to resolution.
What markets are pricing now is a stagflation-like mix rather than a clean growth scare. Higher energy costs are lifting inflation fears, pushing rate expectations higher, and keeping the dollar supported even as gold rebounds and risk assets wobble.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains the central macro driver because it is feeding directly into oil, inflation expectations, and central bank pricing. The latest extension of the U.S. deadline did little to calm markets, while Iran has kept a defiant stance and shipping disruption risk remains live.
The key market reference today is Brent back around $110 to $111. As long as crude holds in that zone, the inflation shock remains active and the dollar is likely to keep attracting support more easily than growth-sensitive currencies.
Assumption: markets will keep treating ceasefire language as provisional until there is clear evidence of safer and more normal Gulf shipping conditions.
Macro calendar
Today
- The scheduled calendar is light, so headlines are still doing most of the work. Brent traded around $110.55, the U.S. 10-year yield rose to about 4.44%, and the dollar stayed firm against major peers as markets repriced inflation risk.
- Final March U.S. consumer sentiment came in weak at 53.3, with expectations at 51.7, which keeps the growth-versus-inflation tension alive into the weekend.
- Quarter-end positioning is another live theme after a first quarter marked by roughly $7 trillion wiped from global equity values and a roughly 70% surge in oil.
The week ahead
- Tuesday, March 31: euro area flash HICP for March is due at 15:00 CEST, and it matters because energy is now threatening to push headline inflation back above target just as growth softens.
- Tuesday, March 31: U.S. JOLTS for February is due at 10:00 a.m. ET, giving markets another read on labour demand before payrolls.
- Wednesday, April 1: the ISM manufacturing report for March is due at 10:00 a.m. ET, and it will matter for the balance between factory resilience and cost pressure.
- Friday, April 3: the U.S. March jobs report is due at 8:30 a.m. ET and is the week’s main macro anchor for Fed expectations and dollar direction.
🔺 USD - Dollar firm, with payrolls now the next big test
The dollar still has the cleanest macro backing in G10. The dollar index is near 100.4 and heading for its strongest monthly gain in almost a year, while markets have swung from expecting cuts to debating how much hike risk central banks may need to price if energy stays elevated. Treasury yields are doing part of the work, but so is the broader safe-haven bid. A softer labour read next week could cool that story, but for now the bias still leans toward USD strength if oil and yields stay high. What could change the bias is a genuine drop in crude combined with a softer U.S. jobs picture that pulls rate expectations lower again.
🔻 EUR - Euro still caught between energy risk and growth fragility
The euro remains vulnerable because Europe is more exposed to the energy shock than the U.S. is, and policymakers are openly discussing stagflation risk. EURUSD is trading around 1.153, which leaves the 1.15 to 1.16 area as the main zone markets are watching into next week’s inflation print. The ECB debate is turning more hawkish on the headline inflation risk, but officials are still signaling that they need evidence of second-round effects before moving quickly. That is not an easy backdrop for the euro because tighter policy talk is arriving at the same time as weaker growth.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling has rate support, but the dollar is still the bigger force
Sterling is under pressure against the dollar, but it has still held up better than most peers since the war began. GBPUSD is around 1.331, and the low-1.33s now look like the first reference area markets are using for near-term direction. UK rate expectations still offer some support because the market has shifted from cuts to possible hikes, yet policymakers are also warning that the growth picture is too uncertain to rush. That leaves sterling relatively sturdy on a cross-market basis, but still vulnerable when the dollar is broadly firm.
⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but broad dollar demand still leads
CAD has support from crude, but the bigger driver right now is still broad USD demand. USDCAD is trading around 1.3875 after touching 1.3884, so the 1.38 to 1.39 zone is the main reference area into next week. Canada benefits from higher oil, but the Bank of Canada has also made clear it would respond if energy-driven inflation starts to turn persistent, which keeps the policy story from being one-way. Near term, CAD can outperform other commodity currencies if oil stays high, but it still struggles to fully resist a strong dollar.
🔺 CHF - Franc supported, though the SNB is still leaning against excess strength
Near-term risks still lean toward a stronger CHF, especially against the euro. USDCHF is sitting just under 0.80, while EURCHF is around 0.916, which shows the franc is still attracting defensive demand even with the dollar also firm. The SNB has said it is more ready to intervene if franc strength becomes excessive, and that matters because inflation is only 0.1% and policymakers do not want imported disinflation to intensify. So the franc remains supported, but not unchecked.
🔻 JPY - Yen still blocked by yields and energy vulnerability
The yen remains the weakest of the classic havens. USDJPY has pushed to about 160.15, which is back in the area that tends to draw intervention attention, but rising U.S. yields and Japan’s dependence on imported energy are still keeping pressure on the currency. The BOJ remains biased toward more tightening, and policymakers say underlying inflation is moving closer to target, but the market still sees U.S. rates and oil as the dominant forces day to day. That keeps the near-term tilt skewed toward a weaker JPY unless yields roll over sharply.
🔻 AUD - Aussie still trading as a risk and energy-shock currency
AUD is still behaving more like a risk-sensitive currency than a pure rate play. AUDUSD is sitting around 0.689, so the 0.6880 to 0.7000 area is the main near-term zone in focus. February inflation eased to 3.7%, but that now feels stale against a much hotter oil backdrop, and the RBA has already warned that a prolonged war could lift inflation expectations while slowing growth. The tilt stays soft while global sentiment remains fragile.
🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains the cleaner downside risk proxy
NZD still looks more exposed than AUD when growth worries and dollar strength return together. The RBNZ is holding rates at 2.25% for now and says it could look through a temporary oil shock, but it has also warned that more persistent inflation pressure could eventually force action. That leaves NZDUSD most sensitive to rate spreads and global risk appetite rather than to a clean domestic story. The 0.5750 to 0.5800 area looks like the key zone markets are watching into next week.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is near $4,536, rebounding sharply after this week’s slide and off the four-month low near $4,098 seen earlier in the week. The main drivers are a softer dollar intraday and dip-buying after an aggressive selloff, while lingering geopolitical stress is bringing back some defensive interest. Watch next whether higher real-rate pressure returns if payrolls and oil both stay firm. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
- 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is near $71.0, rising with gold and recovering after heavy March pressure. The move is being driven by the same dollar and yield dynamics as gold, but silver also carries an extra industrial-growth sensitivity, so it can still lag if global activity fears deepen. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $110.55, back above the $110 line and close to this month’s highs after a brief midweek cooling move. Supply disruption risk, doubts around any durable ceasefire, and the inflation spillover into rates are the three big drivers. Watch next for any concrete shift in Gulf shipping rather than just rhetoric. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: SPY is around 639, while the Nasdaq is roughly 11% below its late-October peak and back in correction territory. Higher yields, higher oil and a fading belief in quick diplomatic relief are the main pressures, with technology and other rate-sensitive pockets taking the brunt of the move. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is near $65,950 after trading between roughly $65,719 and $69,237 intraday, so volatility is still elevated. The macro drivers are tighter dollar liquidity, firmer real yields and weak risk appetite, which means crypto is still trading as a macro-sensitive asset rather than a stand-alone story. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
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