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Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed. The shutdown is over, but October CPI and payrolls remain postponed, so markets are trading a low-data, carry-friendly tape while fresh oil-surplus headlines lean risk-off at the margin.
Currency Outlooks
🔻 USD: The near-term dollar bias is softer into December as futures price roughly a two-thirds chance of a 25 bp cut. The curve sits near +50 bp with the 2-year around the mid-3.5s and the 10-year near 4.1 percent, a mild bull-steepener consistent with easing hopes. When October inflation finally appears, the street looks for core CPI near +0.3 percent month on month and about 3.0 percent year on year, which would not obstruct a December trim. DXY holds a 99.00 to 100.00 pivot; a daily close below 99.20 would open 98.60. Nuance: if oil’s slide morphs into broader growth angst, haven demand could keep the dollar sticky on dips.
⚖️ EUR: With the data vacuum in the U.S., EURUSD is trading the carry and the range. Immediate supports sit at 1.1500 and 1.1475, while resistance stands at 1.1620 then 1.1700. A sustained push above 1.1620 likely needs a clear USD-negative catalyst. Near term, short-dated EUR-USD spreads are little help, so price action dominates.
🔻 GBP: Sterling trades as a function of the expected BoE path and local politics. Markets price roughly 55 to 60 percent odds of a 25 bp cut in December after a knife-edge hold this month. UK growth is soft and the EURGBP risk premium has edged higher; expect 0.8720 to 0.8850 to contain for now. Cable support is 1.3000, resistance 1.3200.
🔻 CAD: Oil is the story. OPEC balance talk points to surplus risk and U.S. stocks built, keeping WTI heavy near the high-50s. That caps CAD rallies. USDCAD biases higher above 1.3950 with 1.4100 next if crude settles below 59. First support sits at 1.3820.
⚖️ CHF: Inflation is near 0.1 percent year on year and the policy rate sits at 0 percent, so the franc trades mostly on external risk. EURCHF faces resistance at 0.9500 with support near 0.9400; USDCHF pivots near 0.9200. Policy stance looks steady.
🔻 JPY: Dollar-yen hovers near 155 as carry stays attractive and vol is muted. Tokyo’s rhetoric is louder, yet intervention risk likely rises only into a clear USD-negative trigger once official U.S. data resumes. Levels: support 153.80, resistance 155.50 then 156.50.
🔺 AUD: Delayed RBA easing and calm risk tone support the Aussie on dips. AUDUSD buy-the-dip zone sits at 0.6480 to 0.6520, with resistance 0.6620. A benign global tape could pull 0.6680 next week.
⚖️ NZD: The RBNZ’s 50 bp cut to 2.50 percent keeps NZD a tactical funder, but much bad news is in the price. NZDUSD support is 0.5880, resistance 0.5980 then 0.6050. Rate-spread dynamics versus AUD still favor AUDNZD topside on rallies.
🪙 Gold: Bid on cut odds and a softer dollar. Dips to 3,980 to 4,000 look supported unless December cut odds fall back toward 50 percent.
🛢 Oil: The balance of risks is lower while surplus talk dominates and WTI time-spreads flirt with contango. Brent around the low-60s and WTI in the high-50s leave energy FX on the defensive into next week.
📈 Stocks: Equities lean risk-on into a potential December Fed cut, though leadership is narrowing. A real USD-negative macro print would turbocharge cyclicals; absent that, range trading prevails.
₿ Crypto: BTC holds above 100k with ETH resilient. A gentler dollar and lower real yields are supportive. Key BTC levels are 100k support and 106k to 108k resistance; a weekly close above that band reopens the highs.
Key near-term catalysts to watch
House levels for the week ahead
🧠 Oil surplus and data blackout steer FX
Published: 11/13/2025
Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed. The shutdown is over, but October CPI and payrolls remain postponed, so markets are trading a low-data, carry-friendly tape while fresh oil-surplus headlines lean risk-off at the margin.
Currency Outlooks
🔻 USD: The near-term dollar bias is softer into December as futures price roughly a two-thirds chance of a 25 bp cut. The curve sits near +50 bp with the 2-year around the mid-3.5s and the 10-year near 4.1 percent, a mild bull-steepener consistent with easing hopes. When October inflation finally appears, the street looks for core CPI near +0.3 percent month on month and about 3.0 percent year on year, which would not obstruct a December trim. DXY holds a 99.00 to 100.00 pivot; a daily close below 99.20 would open 98.60. Nuance: if oil’s slide morphs into broader growth angst, haven demand could keep the dollar sticky on dips.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
⚖️ EUR: With the data vacuum in the U.S., EURUSD is trading the carry and the range. Immediate supports sit at 1.1500 and 1.1475, while resistance stands at 1.1620 then 1.1700. A sustained push above 1.1620 likely needs a clear USD-negative catalyst. Near term, short-dated EUR-USD spreads are little help, so price action dominates.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
🔻 GBP: Sterling trades as a function of the expected BoE path and local politics. Markets price roughly 55 to 60 percent odds of a 25 bp cut in December after a knife-edge hold this month. UK growth is soft and the EURGBP risk premium has edged higher; expect 0.8720 to 0.8850 to contain for now. Cable support is 1.3000, resistance 1.3200.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.
🔻 CAD: Oil is the story. OPEC balance talk points to surplus risk and U.S. stocks built, keeping WTI heavy near the high-50s. That caps CAD rallies. USDCAD biases higher above 1.3950 with 1.4100 next if crude settles below 59. First support sits at 1.3820.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.
⚖️ CHF: Inflation is near 0.1 percent year on year and the policy rate sits at 0 percent, so the franc trades mostly on external risk. EURCHF faces resistance at 0.9500 with support near 0.9400; USDCHF pivots near 0.9200. Policy stance looks steady.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
🔻 JPY: Dollar-yen hovers near 155 as carry stays attractive and vol is muted. Tokyo’s rhetoric is louder, yet intervention risk likely rises only into a clear USD-negative trigger once official U.S. data resumes. Levels: support 153.80, resistance 155.50 then 156.50.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish on JPY.
🔺 AUD: Delayed RBA easing and calm risk tone support the Aussie on dips. AUDUSD buy-the-dip zone sits at 0.6480 to 0.6520, with resistance 0.6620. A benign global tape could pull 0.6680 next week.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔺 bullish.
⚖️ NZD: The RBNZ’s 50 bp cut to 2.50 percent keeps NZD a tactical funder, but much bad news is in the price. NZDUSD support is 0.5880, resistance 0.5980 then 0.6050. Rate-spread dynamics versus AUD still favor AUDNZD topside on rallies.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.
Conclusion
🪙 Gold: Bid on cut odds and a softer dollar. Dips to 3,980 to 4,000 look supported unless December cut odds fall back toward 50 percent.
🛢 Oil: The balance of risks is lower while surplus talk dominates and WTI time-spreads flirt with contango. Brent around the low-60s and WTI in the high-50s leave energy FX on the defensive into next week.
📈 Stocks: Equities lean risk-on into a potential December Fed cut, though leadership is narrowing. A real USD-negative macro print would turbocharge cyclicals; absent that, range trading prevails.
₿ Crypto: BTC holds above 100k with ETH resilient. A gentler dollar and lower real yields are supportive. Key BTC levels are 100k support and 106k to 108k resistance; a weekly close above that band reopens the highs.
Key near-term catalysts to watch
A confirmed timetable for October or November U.S. CPI and payrolls.
Fed-cut pricing into the December meeting; a shift from roughly 65 percent toward 80 percent would push DXY through 99.20.
Oil inventory and OPEC commentary that could entrench surplus pricing and weigh on petro FX.
House levels for the week ahead
DXY 99.20 support, 100.00 resistance.
EURUSD 1.1475 to 1.1620 range.
GBPUSD 1.3000 support, 1.3200 resistance; EURGBP 0.8720 to 0.8850.
USDJPY 153.80 support, 156.50 resistance.
USDCAD 1.3820 support, 1.4100 resistance.
AUDUSD 0.6480 support, 0.6620 resistance.
NZDUSD 0.5880 support, 0.6050 resistance.