🧠 Oil surplus and data blackout steer FX

Published: 11/13/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Mixed. The shutdown is over, but October CPI and payrolls remain postponed, so markets are trading a low-data, carry-friendly tape while fresh oil-surplus headlines lean risk-off at the margin.

Currency Outlooks

🔻 USD: The near-term dollar bias is softer into December as futures price roughly a two-thirds chance of a 25 bp cut. The curve sits near +50 bp with the 2-year around the mid-3.5s and the 10-year near 4.1 percent, a mild bull-steepener consistent with easing hopes. When October inflation finally appears, the street looks for core CPI near +0.3 percent month on month and about 3.0 percent year on year, which would not obstruct a December trim. DXY holds a 99.00 to 100.00 pivot, and a daily close below 99.20 would open 98.60. Nuance: if oil’s slide morphs into broader growth angst, haven demand could keep the dollar sticky on dips.

⚖️ EUR: With the data vacuum in the U.S., EURUSD is trading the carry and the range. Immediate supports sit at 1.1500 and 1.1475, while resistance stands at 1.1620 then 1.1700. A sustained push above 1.1620 likely needs a clear USD-negative catalyst. Near term, short-dated EUR-USD spreads are little help, so price action dominates.

🔻 GBP: Sterling trades as a function of the expected BoE path and local politics. Markets price roughly 55 to 60 percent odds of a 25 bp cut in December after a knife-edge hold this month. UK growth is soft and the EURGBP risk premium has edged higher, so 0.8720 to 0.8850 likely contains for now. Cable support is 1.3000, resistance 1.3200.

🔻 CAD: Oil is the story. OPEC balance talk points to surplus risk and U.S. stocks built, keeping WTI heavy near the high-50s. That caps CAD rallies. USDCAD biases higher above 1.3950 with 1.4100 next if crude settles below 59. First support sits at 1.3820.

⚖️ CHF: Inflation is near 0.1 percent year on year and the policy rate sits at 0 percent, so the franc trades mostly on external risk. EURCHF faces resistance at 0.9500 with support near 0.9400, and USDCHF pivots near 0.9200. Policy stance looks steady.

🔻 JPY: Dollar-yen hovers near 155 as carry stays attractive and vol is muted. Tokyo’s rhetoric is louder, yet intervention risk likely rises only into a clear USD-negative trigger once official U.S. data resumes. Levels in focus are support 153.80, resistance 155.50 then 156.50.

🔺 AUD: Delayed RBA easing and a calm risk tone support the Aussie on dips. AUDUSD demand that markets are watching sits at 0.6480 to 0.6520, with resistance 0.6620. A benign global tape could pull 0.6680 next week.

⚖️ NZD: The RBNZ’s 50 bp cut to 2.50 percent keeps NZD a tactical funder, but much bad news is in the price. NZDUSD support is 0.5880, resistance 0.5980 then 0.6050. Rate-spread dynamics versus AUD still favor AUDNZD topside on rallies.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Bid on cut odds and a softer dollar. Dips to 3,980 to 4,000 look supported unless December cut odds fall back toward 50 percent.

🛢 Oil: The balance of risks is lower while surplus talk dominates and WTI time-spreads flirt with contango. Brent around the low-60s and WTI in the high-50s leave energy FX on the defensive into next week.

📈 Stocks: Equities lean risk-on into a potential December Fed cut, though leadership is narrowing. A USD-negative macro print would turbocharge cyclicals, otherwise range trading prevails.

₿ Crypto: BTC holds above 100k with ETH resilient. A gentler dollar and lower real yields are supportive. Key BTC levels are 100k support and 106k to 108k resistance, and a weekly close above that band would reopen the highs.

Key near-term catalysts to watch

• A confirmed timetable for October or November U.S. CPI and payrolls.
• Fed-cut pricing into the December meeting, a shift from roughly 65 percent toward 80 percent would push DXY through 99.20.
• Oil inventory and OPEC commentary that could entrench surplus pricing and weigh on petro FX.


This is general, educational market commentary, not investment advice or a trading signal. It is meant to help readers understand how current macro data, policy expectations and sentiment are interacting across FX and major asset classes.