IntelliTrade

Good morning traders from a cool but brighter IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 7°C under patchy sun before showers push in later today, so keep the coffee close as we work through a payrolls Friday that still sits under the shadow of oil and geopolitics.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Market mood is cautious, with a mild defensive tilt rather than outright panic. The main story is still the same: oil remains elevated because the Strait of Hormuz disruption has not been cleanly resolved, while today’s U.S. payrolls report is the first big test of whether the growth side of the macro story is starting to crack under higher energy prices.

What markets are pricing now is a messier mix of sticky inflation risk and softer activity, not a simple recession scare or a clean return to risk-on. That keeps the dollar supported, leaves Europe and Japan exposed through the energy channel, and makes today’s labor data especially important for yields and broader FX direction.

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics remains central because oil supply risk is still the main transmission channel into currencies, bonds, and equities. Brent closed near $109 on Thursday after another sharp jump, and the market is still treating any headline around Hormuz, tanker traffic, or military escalation as a live inflation signal rather than background noise.

One key market reference remains the Brent $105 to $110 zone. As long as oil stays there or higher, the dollar keeps a relative advantage, Europe stays more vulnerable on growth, and the yen struggles to fully behave like a haven because higher energy prices are also a direct domestic problem for Japan. Assumption: this view assumes no credible reopening of Hormuz changes the oil picture today.

Macro Calendar

Today

U.S. nonfarm payrolls are due today at 8:30 a.m. ET, with economists expecting roughly 60,000 jobs after February’s 92,000 drop, while the unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.4%. For FX, this is the key test of whether weaker labor momentum can start to outweigh oil-driven inflation pressure.
U.S. cash equities are closed for Good Friday, so the first reaction to payrolls is more likely to come through FX, rates, and thinner holiday liquidity than through a normal full-session Wall Street move.
Middle East headlines remain the other live driver today, because any shift in expectations for the Strait of Hormuz can move oil and the dollar as quickly as the data does.

The week ahead

Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting matters because producers are considering another output increase, which could shape whether the market sees current oil tightness as temporary or more persistent.
Monday brings the U.S. ISM Services PMI for March, which is being released on April 6 because the normal third business day lands on a Good Friday market holiday. That matters because services resilience has been one of the main reasons a deeper U.S. slowdown has not fully taken hold.
Wednesday brings both the RBNZ policy decision and the FOMC minutes. That combination matters for NZD directly and for the broader rates backdrop because markets want to know how much central banks are willing to look through an energy shock.
Friday brings U.S. CPI for March, which may be the clearest test next week of how quickly the oil shock is showing up in headline inflation.

🔺 USD - Dollar supported, but payrolls are the real check

The dollar still has the cleanest support story among the majors. It is getting help from safe-haven demand, from the U.S. relative energy advantage, and from a market that has largely pushed out early rate-cut hopes as oil stays high. The front end of the yield curve remains the more sensitive part of the story, because today’s labor data can still shift how markets think about Fed timing even if geopolitics stays dominant. Risks lean toward further dollar firmness if payrolls are merely soft rather than outright weak and oil remains elevated. What could change that bias is a clear downside labor surprise combined with calmer energy headlines, because that would pull yields lower and reduce the dollar’s defensive carry.

🔻 EUR - Euro still sits on the wrong side of the energy shock

The euro enters Friday still looking vulnerable relative to the dollar because Europe remains more exposed to imported energy stress and weaker growth. March euro area inflation has already moved back up to 2.5%, while core inflation eased to 2.3%, which leaves the ECB facing an awkward mix of firmer headline prices and softer activity. That is not automatically euro-positive, because the market still sees the region as closer to a stagflation problem than the U.S. EURUSD remains a pair to watch around the broad 1.15 to 1.16 zone, with rallies looking less secure if oil stays firm. The bias improves if oil cools and the ECB can focus more on core disinflation than on fresh headline pressure.

⚖️ GBP - Sterling has rate support, but imported inflation is a problem

Sterling still has some support from a market that has repriced the Bank of England away from easy cuts, but the cushion is thinner than it looks. UK firms have lifted their price expectations sharply, yet wage expectations have eased and staffing intentions have softened, which leaves the pound caught between sticky inflation and a weaker growth backdrop. That makes GBP more complicated than a simple high-yield story. The main reference area in GBPUSD remains the 1.32 to 1.33 zone. Risks are mixed, though the bias stays slightly fragile against the dollar if oil remains a global growth drag.

⚖️ CAD - Oil helps, but USD demand is still winning

CAD still has one of the messiest setups in G10. Higher oil should be a tailwind, but the loonie is still losing ground because broad U.S. dollar demand and softer domestic data have outweighed the normal terms-of-trade boost. Canada’s February trade deficit widened sharply, and USDCAD has been holding around the 1.39 zone rather than dropping with stronger crude. That leaves the pair sensitive to both today’s U.S. payrolls and any shift in oil. The tilt stays mixed, but near-term risks still lean toward a firmer USDCAD unless the market starts treating high oil as a net positive for Canada again rather than as part of a broader risk-off shock.

🔺 CHF - Franc still looks like the cleaner European haven

The franc remains the cleaner defensive currency in Europe. When the market leans toward de-escalation, CHF can give back some ground, but when energy stress or geopolitical uncertainty reasserts itself, the franc tends to outperform the euro more cleanly than most majors do. EURCHF is still the better lens here because Europe’s growth and energy exposure are so central to the current story. Near-term risks lean toward a stronger CHF against the euro, while the CHF story against the dollar remains more balanced because both currencies are attracting defensive demand.

⚖️ JPY - Intervention risk is louder, but the energy problem remains

The yen is still being pulled in two directions. Official intervention warnings are getting stronger as USDJPY moves back near the 160 area, and that keeps the risk of sharp reversals alive. But Japan is also highly exposed to imported fuel costs, while the BOJ is still only signaling gradual tightening, so higher oil and elevated U.S. yields continue to work against a clean yen recovery. That keeps USDJPY in a zone that draws attention without yet delivering a clear directional reset. Near-term risks are mixed, though still uncomfortable for JPY while oil stays high.

🔻 AUD - Aussie is still trading more as a risk proxy than a rates story

AUD continues to trade more like a risk and commodity-sensitive currency than a pure RBA currency. Australia’s inflation backdrop had already kept policy relatively firm, but the bigger issue for the Aussie right now is that global growth nerves and fuel stress are overpowering domestic support. That leaves AUDUSD still leaning on the broad 0.69 area as a useful reference zone. The tilt stays soft unless oil pressure eases enough for the market to focus again on Australia’s rate and commodity support rather than on global risk aversion.

🔻 NZD - Kiwi remains exposed ahead of next week’s RBNZ

NZD heads into Friday with a softer week-ahead profile because it remains highly sensitive to global risk appetite and to the dollar side of the equation. New Zealand inflation is already running at 3.1%, the OCR is at 2.25%, and officials have warned that a prolonged energy shock could push inflation materially higher, which makes next Wednesday’s RBNZ decision especially important. That does not automatically help the kiwi, because tighter policy risk is arriving alongside a still-fragile growth backdrop. NZDUSD remains most exposed to the broader 0.57 area and to whatever today’s U.S. payrolls do to the dollar. The tilt improves only if risk sentiment stabilizes and the RBNZ avoids sounding forced into a more aggressive response.

Cross-asset wrap

🪙 Gold: Gold is sitting around the mid-$4,600s into the holiday, after Tuesday’s rebound toward $4,652 but still well below the January record zone above $5,500. The main drivers remain the dollar and real yields first, while geopolitics is helping less than usual because higher oil is also reviving rate fears. Watch next today’s payrolls, because a softer labor print would matter more for gold than another generic risk wobble. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is sitting in the low-to-mid $70s into the holiday, after Tuesday’s rebound to about $74.6 and with major precious-metals markets shut today. The main drivers are still the dollar and yields, but silver remains more exposed than gold to any disappointment in growth data because industrial demand matters more here. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around the $109 to $111 zone, sharply up from Wednesday’s dip and still not far from this week’s spike above $116. Supply disruption risk around Hormuz remains the first driver, while diplomacy and prospective OPEC+ output changes are the second layer shaping expectations. Watch next Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting and any concrete sign that shipping conditions are actually improving. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
📈 Stocks: U.S. cash equities are shut today for Good Friday, after Thursday’s Dow slipped 0.13%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.11% and the Nasdaq added 0.18%. The main drivers remain oil, yields, and headline risk, with markets still trying to decide whether elevated crude is a brief shock or something that feeds a more durable stagflation squeeze. Watch next today’s payrolls and Monday’s ISM Services for whether growth is holding up well enough to keep the recent rebound alive. [RATES] [ENERGY] [RISK]
₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $67,052, trading today between roughly $65,780 and $67,373, so volatility is active but still contained relative to the wider macro stress. The main drivers remain liquidity, real yields, and broad risk appetite, which means crypto is still behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]

This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.

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