🧠 Reopening relief meets soft UK jobs, dollar mixed

Published: 11/11/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on as progress toward ending the U.S. shutdown steadies equities and high beta FX. The backdrop keeps the dollar range bound with mild downside risk if official data resume and cool, especially at the front end.

Currency Outlooks

🔻 USD: Futures imply roughly a 60 to 65 percent chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in December, which leaves the dollar vulnerable if incoming data confirm cooling momentum. The curve is modestly positive with 2s near 3.58 percent and 10s near 4.11 percent, so a 2s10s near plus 0.5 percentage point typically caps broad USD rallies when risk is stable. The dollar index has struggled above 100.00 and tends to find support near 99.50. As government data return, softer labor or prices would lean dollar lower, while a stickier front end would keep the top of the recent range in play.

🔺 EUR: Euro sentiment is supported by a capped dollar and steady global risk. EURUSD can stabilize above the 1.1500 floor and probe 1.1620, then 1.1680 on a daily close. On short-term drivers the euro screens modestly undervalued, so 1.1515 to 1.1530 is an area markets view as potential demand while U.S. yields stay anchored. EURCHF near 0.93 is a quick barometer of risk tone.

🔻 GBP: UK unemployment rose to 5.0 percent and average weekly earnings slowed to 4.8 percent year on year, pushing markets toward a December cut profile. Around 18 bp is priced by year end, which tends to keep GBP rallies shallow unless the dollar slides broadly. Reference levels: GBPUSD support 1.3050 to 1.3100, resistance 1.3200.

⚖️ CAD: Oil sits near Brent 64 and WTI 60, leaving CAD sensitive but not weak. USDCAD rallies have often stalled into 1.4100 while crude holds these handles, with 1.3950 as the first support area. The domestic calendar is light, so the USD leg dominates near term.

⚖️ CHF: With EURCHF pivoting around 0.93 and sight deposits steady, CHF trades mostly as a risk toggle. In a calm tape and capped USD, EURCHF can grind toward 0.9350 while USDCHF mirrors DXY. Respect 0.9280 as initial support in EURCHF during risk wobbles.

🔻 JPY: USDJPY sits near 154.2 as wide rate differentials and Japan’s fiscal tone meet elevated intervention watch into 155. Spikes toward 154.5 to 155 have historically met supply unless U.S. yields jump. First supports are 153.5 and 152.8.

⚖️ AUD: Reopening risk-on helps, but AUD still trades the USD leg and global beta more than local data today. Reference levels: 0.6450 support, 0.6600 resistance. A softer DXY would allow tests of the topside.

⚖️ NZD: A similar setup to AUD with slightly higher beta to shifts in U.S. cut odds. Rallies toward 0.5900 have tended to stall unless U.S. yields roll over, while a break under 0.5750 would signal risk fatigue returning.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Rebounds toward the low 4,100s on renewed cut bets and steadier risk. A close above 4,150 would reassert momentum, while 4,050 is first support.

🛢 Oil: Brent near 64 and WTI near 60 as oversupply headlines counter sanctions uncertainty. Direction this week leans range bound unless inventories surprise.

📈 Stocks: Relief bid from reopening hopes, tempered by valuation jitters. That mix should keep USD ranges sticky and favor carry in high beta FX on calm days.

₿ Crypto: BTC around 104k and ETH near 3.6k, consolidating after the weekend pop. For BTC, sustained closes above 107k would reopen 110k, while a loss of 104k risks 102k. The macro driver remains the USD path and the speed of the data comeback.



This is general, educational market commentary, not investment advice or a trading signal. It is meant to help readers understand how current macro data, policy expectations and sentiment are interacting across FX and major asset classes.