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Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on as progress toward ending the U.S. shutdown steadies equities and high beta FX. The backdrop keeps the dollar range bound with mild downside risk if official data resume and cool, especially at the front end.
Currency Outlooks
🔻 USD: Futures imply roughly a 60 to 65 percent chance of a 25 bp Fed cut in December, which leaves the dollar vulnerable if incoming data confirm cooling momentum. The curve is modestly positive with 2s near 3.58 percent and 10s near 4.11 percent, so 2s10s around plus 0.5 percentage point typically caps broad USD rallies when risk is stable. Tactically, the dollar index struggles above 100.00 and finds support near 99.50. As government data return, softer labour or prices would lean dollar lower; a sticky pulse at the front end would keep the top of the recent range in play.
🔺 EUR: Euro sentiment is supported by a capped dollar and steady global risk. EURUSD can stabilise above the 1.1500 floor and probe 1.1620, then 1.1680 on a daily close. EUR remains modestly undervalued on short-term drivers, so dips into 1.1515 to 1.1530 look buyable while U.S. yields stay anchored. Watch EURCHF near 0.93 as a quick barometer of risk tone.
🔻 GBP: UK unemployment rose to 5.0 percent and average weekly earnings total pay slowed to 4.8 percent year on year, pushing markets toward a December cut profile. OIS is roughly 18 bp priced by year end, which should keep GBP rallies shallow unless the dollar slides broadly. Levels: GBPUSD support 1.3050 to 1.3100, resistance 1.3200.
⚖️ CAD: Oil sits near Brent 64 and WTI 60, leaving CAD sensitive but not weak. Prefer fading USDCAD strength into 1.4100 while crude holds these handles, with 1.3950 as first support. The domestic calendar is light, so the USD leg dominates.
⚖️ CHF: With EURCHF pivoting around 0.93 and sight deposits steady, CHF trades mostly as a risk toggle. In a calm tape and capped USD, EURCHF can grind toward 0.9350 while USDCHF mirrors DXY. Respect 0.9280 support in EURCHF on risk wobbles.
🔻 JPY: USDJPY sits near 154.2 as wide rate differentials and Japan’s fiscal tone meet elevated intervention watch into 155. Fade spikes toward 154.5 to 155 unless U.S. yields jump. First supports are 153.5 and 152.8.
⚖️ AUD: Reopening risk-on helps, but AUD still trades the USD leg and global beta more than local data today. Levels: 0.6450 support, 0.6600 resistance. A softer DXY would let AUD test the topside.
⚖️ NZD: Similar setup to AUD with slightly higher beta to shifts in U.S. cut odds. Fade rips toward 0.5900 unless U.S. yields roll over. A break under 0.5750 would signal risk fatigue returning.
Conclusion
🪙 Gold: Rebounds toward the low 4,100s on renewed cut bets and steadier risk. A close above 4,150 would reassert momentum, while 4,050 is first support.
🛢 Oil: Brent near 64 and WTI near 60 as oversupply headlines counter sanctions uncertainty. Direction this week leans range bound unless inventories surprise.
📈 Stocks: Relief bid from reopening hopes, tempered by valuation jitters. That mix should keep USD ranges sticky and favour carry in high beta FX on calm days.
🧠 Reopening relief meets soft UK jobs, dollar mixed
Published: 11/11/2025