Published: 11/18/2025

Overall Market Sentiment:
Cautious risk-off. Equities are softer ahead of a heavy U.S. data restart, nudging the dollar higher. A modestly positive 2s10s curve near +50 bp tempers outsized dollar trends, yet still supports the dollar on dips.

Currency Outlooks

🔺 USD: Futures imply roughly a 50 to 55 percent chance of a December cut, down from last week, which keeps the greenback supported on softer risk days. The 10-year is near 4.1 percent and the 2-year near 3.6 percent, leaving 2s10s around +0.50 percentage points. Focus is on Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Thursday’s delayed payrolls, with any front-end repricing as the catalyst for the next leg. Key DXY references: 99.20 support, 100.00 resistance. Nuance: an underwhelming jobs print would bull-steepen the front end and pull DXY back toward support.

⚖️ EUR: The euro is trading the U.S. leg more than local drivers with Euro area HICP near 2.1 percent year on year. Expect ranges unless U.S. data break the stalemate. Levels in view: 1.1560 to 1.1580 demand, 1.1620 then 1.1680 supply. A hot U.S. payrolls print would likely pull EURUSD toward the 1.1500 area.

🔻 GBP: Markets lean toward a December BoE cut as growth and labor metrics cool, which keeps rallies shallow unless U.S. yields roll over. Levels: GBPUSD 1.3050 support, 1.3200 resistance, while EURGBP pivots near 0.8800.

⚖️ CAD: Oil is softer on surplus chatter, which caps CAD on good risk days. Brent near the mid-63s and WTI near the high-59s keep USDCAD supported on dips. Market focus remains on a 1.3950 to 1.4100 range while crude stays heavy.

⚖️ CHF: Inflation is near 0.1 percent year on year and the policy rate is 0 percent, so differentials lean CHF-negative when risk is calm. EURCHF faces first resistance near 0.9350, and USDCHF tracks the broad dollar tone. A risk wobble would still flip CHF stronger quickly.

🔻 JPY: Despite risk-off, yen underperforms as wide U.S.–Japan spreads keep USDJPY bid and markets cluster around a potential BoJ move late this year or early next. Intervention sensitivity rises into 155, though officials may prefer to react after a USD-negative data shock. Levels: 153.8 support, 155.5 resistance.

⚖️ AUD: The RBA held at 3.60 percent and guidance stays cautious. AUD trades global beta and the U.S. leg more than local data. Levels: 0.6500 support, 0.6620 resistance.

🔻 NZD: The RBNZ’s October cut to 2.50 percent and expectations for further easing keep spreads soft. Rallies toward 0.5950 to 0.6000 have struggled unless U.S. data cools, and EURNZD topside remains favored if front-end U.S. yields stay firm.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Slips as cut odds narrow. Dips look supported near the 4,000 area if front-end yields ease again.

🛢 Oil: Rebound risk from disruption headlines is fading as supply concerns give way to surplus talk. Brent around the mid-63s and WTI near the high-59s keep petro-FX capped.

📈 Stocks: Risk-off tone ahead of the U.S. data restart keeps cyclicals on the back foot and supports a cautious USD bid intraday.

₿ Crypto: Consolidation continues, sensitive to the USD and real yields. Price action remains range bound, with topside progress typically requiring softer U.S. data.


This is general, educational market commentary, not investment advice or a trading signal. It is meant to help readers understand how current macro data, policy expectations and sentiment are interacting across FX and major asset classes.