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Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on. Signs of progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown are lifting equities and high-beta FX while trimming haven demand. The week stays light on hard U.S. data, so rates pricing and headlines will steer day-to-day moves.
⚖️ USD: Markets price roughly a 60 to 65 percent chance of a 25 bp cut in December, which limits fresh dollar upside unless yields lurch higher. The 10-year sits near 4.1 percent and the 2-year around 3.55 to 3.60 percent, leaving the 2s10s spread near plus 0.5 to 0.6 percentage points, a shape that typically caps USD rallies when risk is stable. The dollar index should struggle to sustain moves above the 99.90 to 100.00 area if sentiment holds. Key trigger this week is Fed speak and any shutdown votes that shift cut odds.
🔺 EUR: The euro benefits most if shutdown progress trims USD carry appeal. I like 1.1515 to 1.1530 as first demand and 1.1620 as initial supply; a daily close above 1.1620 opens 1.1680. Euro surveys can help on the margins, but the bigger swing factor is the U.S. dollar path.
⚖️ GBP: Sterling trades the global risk mood today, then pivots to U.K. wages tomorrow. Softer pay growth would pull markets toward a December BoE cut and cap GBP pops. Levels in focus: GBPUSD demand around 1.31 and EURGBP support near 0.8750 to 0.8760.
⚖️ CAD: A firmer oil tone on reopening hopes helps CAD at the margin, but U.S. rates still dominate. Prefer fading USDCAD strength into 1.4100 while WTI holds near 60 and Brent near 64; a clean risk-on session argues for tests of 1.3950 support.
⚖️ CHF: With inflation near 0.1 percent and the policy rate around zero, rate differentials stay CHF-negative when risk is calm. In that backdrop, EURCHF can grind higher while USDCHF tracks the dollar tone. Watch 0.9350 on EURCHF as a first resistance pivot.
🔻 JPY: Funding flows are back in charge as shutdown optimism nudges USDJPY higher despite talk of a possible BoJ move later this year. Intervention risk rises into 155, so I like selling strength near 154.5 to 155 with tight risk. A softer USD on lower cut odds or a bond rally would pull USDJPY back toward 153.
🔺 AUD: Pro-risk tone helps the Aussie and AUDJPY remains a clean barometer of equity sentiment. Australia-specific catalysts are light, so AUD trades mainly with global beta. First supports: 0.6450 in AUDUSD and 96.0 in AUDJPY; resistance 0.6600 in AUDUSD.
⚖️ NZD: Kiwi follows the same playbook as AUD but is more sensitive to shifts in U.S. cut odds given a softer domestic policy stance. Fade rips toward 0.5900 unless U.S. yields slide; a break under 0.5750 would flag fading risk appetite.
🪙 Gold: Bid on easier Fed odds and steady risk. Sustained closes above recent highs would confirm momentum; dips should be shallow if real yields drift lower.
🛢 Oil: Brent near 64 and WTI near 60 on reopening optimism. The medium-term balance is still heavy, but today’s tone favors a modest grind higher while shutdown headlines improve.
📈 Stocks: Relief rally fits a capped-USD, risk-on day. Leadership skews to cyclicals and high beta unless bond yields pop.
₿ Crypto: BTC near 106k and ETH around the mid-3ks as risk appetite improves. For BTC, intraday support sits near 102k and resistance near 106.5k; a close above resistance reopens 110k.
Week-Ahead Heat Map
🧠 Shutdown thaw lifts risk, cools broad dollar
Published: 11/10/2025