← Back to posts🧠Strong jobs steady dollar as oil climbs on Iran risk

🧠Strong jobs steady dollar as oil climbs on Iran risk

Published: 2/12/2026

Good morning traders from a drizzly, umbrella-tangled IntelliTrade desk. It is about 7°C with light rain and showers on and off through the day, a nice match for markets that are also damp rather than stormy, waiting for tomorrow’s US inflation print to decide the next move.


Overall Market Sentiment



The tone is cautious and slightly risk on, with a firmer macro backdrop but plenty of event risk ahead. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just under 97, around 96.9–97.0, marginally higher on the day after yesterday’s stronger January jobs report and no longer pressing its recent lows.


The jobs data showed nonfarm payrolls up 130,000 in January and unemployment at 4.3 percent, beating forecasts, but also revealed large downward revisions to 2025 that left last year’s job growth much weaker than previously thought.That mix supports a “slowdown, not collapse” narrative and has reduced the near term probability of rapid rate cuts.


Gold and silver are softer today as a slightly firmer dollar and strong labour data dampen immediate easing hopes. Spot gold remains above the psychologically important 5,000 area, but intraday reports describe it as muted, with silver still volatile ahead of Friday’s US CPI release.


Oil is bid for a second day. Brent crude is around 69.5–69.7 dollars, supported by renewed tension between the United States and Iran and worries about potential disruption to Middle East supply routes, even as US inventories have risen sharply.


Equity markets are in consolidation mode. Recent sessions have seen US index futures edge higher after the jobs beat, with tech still recovering from last week’s AI-related sell off, while European stocks remain close to record levels after the European Central Bank stayed on hold.


Crypto remains under pressure. Bitcoin is trading roughly in the mid to high 60,000s, with several sources flagging spot levels around 67,000 and a 2 to 3 percent drop over 24 hours, as the market digests higher yields and braces for CPI. Sentiment gauges are back in fear territory and total crypto market cap has fallen toward 2.3 trillion.





Geopolitics



Geopolitics is again a front-line macro driver through the oil channel. Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated, with talk of additional US assets in the region and concerns about shipping routes, which has pushed Brent close to 70 dollars despite a large US inventory build of more than 8 million barrels.


For markets, the key question is whether this risk premium persists. A sustained move above 70 in Brent would keep upward pressure on inflation expectations and complicate the rate outlook for energy-importing economies. Any de-escalation could trigger a quick pullback, which would be supportive for currencies like EUR and GBP that are sensitive to energy costs.





Policy and the macro map for the week



The big remaining macro driver this week is tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index. The January CPI report, delayed by the earlier government shutdown, is scheduled for Friday 13 February at 08:30 ET.


Markets expect headline CPI around 2.5 percent year on year, down from 2.7 percent in December, with core still slowly easing. Analysts broadly see the report as showing persistent but cooling inflation, which would keep the Federal Reserve in “watchful but patient” mode after the solid jobs data.


Yesterday’s employment report gives the Fed some breathing space. The 130,000 payroll gain, unemployment dipping to 4.3 percent, and annual benchmark revisions that sharply downgraded 2025 job creation all point to an economy that is slowing but not breaking.


Outside the US:


  • The ECB left its main rate and deposit rate unchanged at 2.15 and 2.0 percent, respectively, and continues to say that inflation should stabilise around 2 percent in the medium term, even if it temporarily undershoots this year.
  • The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75 percent in a close 5–4 vote, with four members already favouring a cut to 3.5 percent, and downgraded its 2026 growth forecast to 0.9 percent with higher projected unemployment.
  • The Reserve Bank of Australia remains a hawkish outlier after last week’s hike to 3.85 percent, keeping AUD supported relative to peers.






Today and the rest of this week




Today, Thursday



  • Markets are digesting yesterday’s jobs data and positioning for tomorrow’s CPI. DXY is back near 97, off the recent lows but still far below levels seen a year ago.
  • US index futures are slightly higher in early trade as investors interpret the labour data as strong enough to avoid recession, yet not strong enough to force renewed tightening.
  • Gold and silver are in “wait and see” mode, slightly softer on the day, with traders describing price action as volatile but directionless.




The rest of the week



  • Friday 13 February:
  • US January CPI. A core print clearly below expectations would likely revive talk of mid-year cuts and weigh on the dollar, helping gold, growth stocks and high beta FX. A sticky reading, especially in services, would support the recent dollar stabilisation and keep a lid on the metals rebound.
  • Real earnings data arrive alongside CPI, giving more colour on wage purchasing power and consumer demand into the spring.

  • Eurozone and UK:
  • With both ECB and BoE meetings done, there are no major rate decisions this week. Focus stays on surveys, retail data and central bank speeches that might refine expectations for the timing of first cuts.

  • Asia Pacific:
  • Japan continues to digest the “Takaichi rally” in equities while USDJPY reacts mainly to US yields and CPI expectations.
  • Australia trades the RBA’s hawkish tilt. New Zealand looks ahead to its late February policy decision, with markets assuming a longer hold as inflation trends lower.






Currency outlooks




⚖️ USD – Jobs beat steadies the dollar before CPI



The dollar has stopped sliding and is stabilising just below 97. Yesterday’s employment report beat expectations with 130,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.3 percent, which reduced immediate pressure for cuts and helped DXY bounce from recent lows near 96.5.


At the same time, the large downward revisions to 2025 job growth confirm that the labour market has already cooled substantially, which keeps markets comfortable with the idea of cuts later this year even if they arrive more gradually.


For the rest of the week, risks for USD look balanced around CPI. A softer inflation print would likely push DXY back toward the 96.5 support area, while a sticky core reading would favour a move back into the 97.5–98.0 band that contained much of January’s price action.





⚖️ EUR – Supported by stable ECB, but capped by strong US data



EURUSD is hovering near the 1.18–1.19 region, slightly softer after yesterday’s dollar rebound but still up significantly over the past year. The single currency is supported by an ECB that is in no rush to cut and expects inflation to stabilise around 2 percent, even as it temporarily dips below target this year.


The challenge for the euro is that a stronger than expected US labour market and firmer oil prices both work against aggressive EUR strength. For the next couple of days, risks for EUR versus USD look mixed, driven mainly by CPI. A benign inflation surprise would allow another test of the 1.20 region, while a sticky core reading could pull EURUSD back toward the 1.17–1.18 support zone that has repeatedly contained dips since January.





🔻 GBP – BoE dovish split and weak growth keep a bearish tilt



Sterling is trading in the mid 1.36s against the dollar, roughly in the middle of the recent 1.35–1.38 range. The BoE’s 5–4 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75 percent, with four members already favouring another cut, and the downgrade of 2026 growth and higher unemployment projections, keep GBP framed as a currency where the next move is more likely to be down in rates.


Political noise and a soft growth backdrop also encourage some investors to fade sterling strength on rallies, especially versus currencies backed by more stable or hawkish central banks. For the rest of this week, risks for GBP versus USD remain tilted to the downside, even though near term direction will still depend heavily on CPI. Markets continue to see 1.35 as key support and 1.38 as the main resistance band where selling interest could reappear if dollar softness returns.





🔺 CAD – Oil and strong US data give the loonie a helpful backdrop



The Canadian dollar is getting support from both sides of its macro story. Oil has climbed for a second day, with Brent near 69.6 dollars, and yesterday’s solid US jobs data point to steady demand for Canadian exports.


USDCAD is trading in the mid 1.35s, closer to the lower end of its recent range, as the softer dollar trend of late January combines with better commodity pricing. With Canadian inflation near the middle of the Bank of Canada’s target band, policy can stay patient and the currency trades mainly off external drivers.


For the remainder of the week, risks for CAD versus USD lean modestly toward further strength, especially if CPI is benign and oil holds near current levels. A friendly inflation print could see USDCAD edge closer to the 1.34–1.35 area, while a hawkish surprise and any pullback in crude would likely push it back toward the 1.37 region.





🔺 CHF – Franc stays firm as quiet hedge into CPI



The Swiss franc remains one of the stronger G10 currencies. USDCHF is trading in the high 0.76s, very close to multi week lows, as investors keep CHF as a quiet hedge against both geopolitical flare ups and macro surprises.


Swiss inflation remains low and the central bank is comfortable with a slightly stronger currency as insurance against imported price shocks. With US yields off their peaks and CPI risk still ahead, risks for CHF versus USD lean slightly toward further franc strength or at least continued resilience. Market participants are watching the 0.76–0.77 band as near term support for USDCHF, with 0.79–0.80 as the area that would need a broader dollar recovery to be challenged.





🔻 JPY – Yield gap and oil move keep yen under pressure again



The yen’s brief relief rally after the election in Japan and the earlier dollar slide has faded somewhat. With US yields backing up on the strong jobs report and oil pushing higher on US–Iran tension, USDJPY has moved higher again from its recent lows, even if it remains below the extreme levels seen earlier this year.


The Bank of Japan’s policy rate is still far below US levels and officials continue to signal a gradual normalisation path rather than a sharp turn toward restrictive policy. That leaves a wide yield gap that supports carry trades at a time when global risk appetite, while choppy, is not collapsing.


For the short term, risks for JPY lean back toward weakness, particularly if CPI does not strongly undercut US yields. Any sharp push into the upper part of the recent USDJPY range, however, will keep the possibility of verbal or actual intervention in focus.





🔺 AUD – RBA hawkish stance keeps Aussie on the front foot



The Australian dollar continues to look relatively attractive in G10. After the RBA’s hike to 3.85 percent and guidance that further tightening is possible, markets have repriced the policy path higher and now see Australia as one of the few economies still in a mini-tightening phase.


AUDUSD is holding above 0.71, even after the stronger US jobs print, helped by a still soft dollar trend versus earlier in the year and stabilising metals prices. For the rest of this week, risks for AUD versus USD remain tilted to the upside, unless CPI is strong enough to re-ignite broad dollar buying. The 0.70 area is seen as important support, while the 0.715–0.72 band is the next resistance zone where profit taking could emerge on first tests.





⚖️ NZD – Kiwi steady, tracking AUD and global risk tone



The New Zealand dollar is firm but less exuberant than AUD. NZDUSD is trading just above 0.60, consolidating recent gains as investors balance a cautious Reserve Bank of New Zealand stance with better global risk sentiment and spillover from the stronger Aussie.


The RBNZ is widely expected to stay on hold at its late February meeting, with inflation projected to return toward target and growth only moderate, so NZD tends to trade more as a high-beta expression of global conditions and AUD performance than as a policy-driven outlier.


For the remainder of the week, risks for NZD versus USD look broadly balanced. A benign CPI print and stable equities would support a gradual grind toward the 0.61–0.62 region. A sticky US inflation number that lifts yields and the dollar would likely trigger another test of the 0.59 handle as some investors take profit on recent kiwi strength.





Cross-asset wrap



  • 🪙 Gold:
    Gold is still in post-rout price discovery, oscillating just above 5,000 after a historic spike and crash earlier this month. Swingy intraday moves reflect the tug of war between a slightly stronger dollar and yields after the jobs beat, and the expectation that CPI will show gradual disinflation rather than a clean victory.
  • 🛢 Oil:
    Oil has become a front line inflation variable again. Brent near 69.6–69.7 dollars and WTI just under 65 dollars reflect a risk premium from US–Iran tension that has overshadowed the effect of a large US inventory build. If tensions ratchet higher, a break above 70 would keep headline inflation stickier and add pressure on central banks that would prefer to stay on hold.
  • 📈 Stocks:
    Global stocks are balancing stronger data against higher yields. The Dow recently closed above 50,000 for the first time, yet tech and AI-linked names remain volatile as investors reassess earnings assumptions after a series of big moves. Futures are modestly higher today as the market interprets the labour data as compatible with a soft landing, but CPI will decide whether that narrative can hold.
  • ₿ Crypto:
    Crypto markets remain fragile and highly sensitive to macro headlines. Bitcoin is fluctuating around 67,000, with total crypto market cap down about 2 to 3 percent on the day and sentiment gauges firmly in the fear zone. Analysts describe current price action as rangebound consolidation after a sharp drawdown, with CPI seen as the next catalyst for either a relief bounce or a retest of recent lows.






This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.


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