Good morning traders from a mostly cloudy, shower-threatened IntelliTrade desk, where it is about 8–11°C, the pavements are damp, and the only bright patches so far are on the screens. Top up your coffee, because between tariff turmoil, key inflation data and end-of-month flows, this week is more caffeinated than the weather.
Overall Market Sentiment
Markets are in a nervous, data-watching mood. The broad US dollar is slightly softer, with the main dollar index around 97.4, down about 0.3 percent on the day and roughly 0.5 percent below last week’s peak, as traders react to confusing new tariff headlines and trim some defensive dollar positions.
Equity futures in the US are lower, European futures are also pointing down, and Asian stocks are mixed as investors juggle tariff uncertainty with still solid earnings and growth data.Safe-haven assets are catching a bid: gold has surged to around 5,150 dollars per ounce, close to a three-week high, while Brent crude is slightly lower but still elevated near 71 dollars per barrel.Bitcoin has slid sharply toward the mid 60,000s, down around 4–5 percent, reinforcing its current role as a high beta macro asset rather than a consistent hedge.
Geopolitics
Geopolitics is a front-row driver again today. Confusion around new US tariff announcements after a court decision on earlier measures has rattled global markets, with investors trying to work out whether this is a one-off shock or the start of another stop-go trade policy cycle.
This matters for FX because tariffs impact growth expectations, inflation, and safe-haven demand. Tougher and more erratic tariffs can sap confidence in US assets, which tends to weaken the dollar against other majors and lift gold. They can also weigh on trade-sensitive currencies in Asia and the commodity bloc if markets start to price slower global trade volumes. For now, gold above 5,100 and Brent around 71 suggest markets are adding a modest risk premium but not pricing a full-blown shock.
Policy and data: today and the rest of the week
Today (Monday)
Today is relatively light on scheduled data, which leaves markets trading mostly on tariff headlines, residual central bank signals and technical levels. Several Asian markets have reduced liquidity because of local holidays, which can exaggerate intraday FX and commodity swings around news.
The rest of this week
The calendar turns much heavier from Tuesday onward, with a clear focus on inflation and growth:
United States
- Key event is Friday’s producer price index (PPI), which will give another read on underlying price pressures after recent cooler consumer prints.
- Consumer confidence and regional indicators earlier in the week help fine tune the growth picture and may influence how quickly markets expect the Federal Reserve to move toward rate cuts.
Euro area and Germany
- Final euro area CPI, plus German Ifo and CPI, will show whether disinflation is continuing smoothly or starting to stall. This feeds directly into expectations for when the European Central Bank can even consider its first cut.
United Kingdom
- After last week’s softer inflation print, retail sales and confidence indicators will tell markets whether the consumer can handle tighter conditions or needs more help from the Bank of England.
Australia
- CPI and a speech by the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia land midweek and are crucial for a market that has pushed AUD higher on the back of rate differentials.
Japan
- CPI data on Thursday will show whether the path toward more normal policy at the Bank of Japan is intact, at a time when some former policymakers openly discuss the risk of an earlier hike if the yen weakens again.
Canada, Switzerland, China – Canada, Switzerland, China
- Friday brings Swiss GDP, German and Canadian inflation and growth data, plus US PPI, then China’s PMI on Sunday rounds out the week and will be important for sentiment toward Asia and the commodity bloc.
Net result: this is a week where tariffs, PPI, and a cluster of CPI and confidence prints decide whether the recent dollar wobble extends or snaps back.
Currency outlooks
⚖️ USD – Tariff confusion softens dollar but data risk is two sided
The broad dollar index is around 97.4, down about 0.3 percent on the session but still slightly above last week’s lows in the high 96s.Positioning data and survey commentary suggest investors are already quite underweight the dollar after its 2025 slide, which means tactical squeezes are always possible if data surprise on the strong side.
Near term, tariffs are hurting sentiment toward US assets, which tends to weigh on the currency, but safe-haven demand and higher real yields can limit that downside, especially if upcoming confidence and PPI numbers stay firm.Markets are watching the 96.8–97.0 area as initial support and 97.8–98.0 as resistance, with the balance of risks for this week broadly even rather than clearly one way.
🔺 EUR – Euro benefits from softer dollar and trend break
EURUSD is trading just above 1.18, hovering near its 9-day moving average after breaching a short-term bearish trend line.That pattern fits a story of a currency that cooled off after a strong run, then found support as the dollar lost some momentum.
This week’s euro area and German data should confirm whether disinflation is progressing smoothly and whether growth is stabilising at low but positive levels, which would support the idea that the European Central Bank can stay patient while the Fed does the heavier cutting later.In that scenario, dips into the 1.18–1.1775 region are likely to be treated as consolidation, while a move back toward 1.19–1.1920 would reflect a gentle continuation of the euro’s broader recovery trend.
Given the combination of tariff-driven dollar softness and a still-cautious but not panicked European backdrop, near term risks for EUR lean modestly to the upside.
🔻 GBP – Sterling grinding higher inside a still bearish short-term structure
GBPUSD is trading around 1.35–1.35-2, slightly firmer than last week but still within a corrective downtrend from the early-February highs.Recent UK data have been mixed: a welcome drop in headline inflation, firmer retail sales, but lingering concern about underlying price pressures and wage dynamics.
That mix leaves the Bank of England with some room to talk about future easing without promising anything imminent, which tends to keep sterling on the defensive against a backdrop of tariff noise and global growth jitters. For this week, markets are watching 1.34–1.3375 as a broader support band and 1.36–1.37 as resistance where rallies have repeatedly stalled.
With UK assets also sensitive to any escalation in trade tensions, risks for GBP versus USD look tilted toward mild further weakness, especially if US data come in solid and PPI does not re-ignite inflation fears.
⚖️ CAD – Oil helps the loonie but US data and tariffs cloud the view
The Canadian dollar starts the week in a holding pattern. USDCAD is trading in the mid 1.36s, near the upper half of its recent range, as lower but still elevated oil prices and a slightly softer dollar pull against softer Canadian inflation and global growth worries.
Recent CPI data near the middle of the Bank of Canada target band mean the central bank can afford to be patient, which keeps the focus on external drivers such as PPI in the Federal Reserve sphere and the global tariff story.
Short term, risks for CAD versus USD are fairly balanced. A calm week for tariffs and a friendly US data mix could see USDCAD nudge back toward 1.35, while renewed risk aversion or hotter PPI that pushes yields higher would support a return toward the 1.37 area.
🔺 CHF – Franc remains a go-to hedge into tariff and data risk
The Swiss franc remains firm overall. USDCHF is still trading near the low end of its one-year range, helped by safe-haven flows and low Swiss inflation that allows the Swiss National Bank to tolerate a strong currency.
With tariff noise, high gold prices and a busy inflation week, CHF continues to serve as a quiet diversifier for portfolios that are otherwise long equities and credit. There is not much in the Swiss domestic calendar to challenge that role, so price action is likely to be driven more by global risk sentiment and the direction of US yields than by local data.
For this week, risks for CHF versus USD lean slightly toward further franc strength, particularly if PPI comes in tame and tariff uncertainty persists. Any move by USDCHF back toward more neutral territory would probably require a clear de-escalation on trade or a run of stronger US data.
⚖️ JPY – Yen caught between stronger safe-haven appeal and yield gap
The yen is stabilising after last week’s turbulence. USDJPY is trading around 154, having pulled back from highs near 155–156 as tariff confusion and lower US equity futures supported demand for safe assets.
At the same time, the rate gap between US and Japanese bonds remains wide, even if talk has intensified that the Bank of Japan could hike again as early as March if yen weakness resumes. That keeps carry trades interesting but also raises the risk of sudden reversals when policy expectations shift.
For this week, risks for JPY versus USD look mixed. Strong US PPI and resilient confidence could push USDJPY back toward the mid 150s, while softer data and persistent tariff worries would support further yen gains, targeting support zones near 153–152.
🔻 AUD – Aussie supported by carry but vulnerable to tariffs and CPI
The Australian dollar is holding above 0.70, with AUDUSD trading around 0.707, up over 2 percent on the month and more than 11 percent over the year, as investors continue to like its yield advantage.That outperformance, however, makes AUD more sensitive to any negative surprises this week.
Midweek, Australian CPI and comments from the head of the Reserve Bank of Australia will be decisive. A softer than expected inflation print, or more cautious rhetoric, would challenge the idea that rates can stay significantly above peers for long. Tariff uncertainty that clouds the outlook for Asian trade is another headwind.
Given those cross currents, risks for AUD versus USD this week lean slightly to the downside, with the 0.70 area as key support and recent highs around 0.71–0.715 likely to act as resistance unless both domestic data and global risk sentiment line up in AUD’s favour.
🔻 NZD – Kiwi juggling dovish RBNZ aftershocks and China related tariff risks
The New Zealand dollar is still digesting the earlier RBNZ surprise and new tariff twists. NZDUSD is trading just under 0.60, with spot quotes around 0.598, after slipping steadily from above 0.60 last week.
The central bank’s hold at 2.25 percent and its cautious tone about further tightening left markets reassessing how much rate support NZD really has, and now fresh uncertainty around China related trade flows and tariff policy adds another layer to the story.With New Zealand growth tied tightly to global goods demand, tariff volatility is not a trivial risk.
Technical commentary points to 0.5925 as key support on the downside and 0.605–0.61 as the area where bounces may stall unless the global backdrop improves.Overall, risks for NZD versus USD still look tilted to the downside as long as tariffs and US data keep investors cautious.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold:
Gold has broken to a three-week high around 5,150–5,160 dollars per ounce, helped by tariff confusion and lingering geopolitical worries. The move comes after an already strong month, with prices up nearly 3 percent over that period and more than 70 percent over the past year. If US PPI and confidence data stay contained, gold can remain a preferred hedge, while a meaningful upside shock in inflation would lift real yields and likely cap further near term gains. - 🛢 Oil:
Oil is easing but remains elevated. Brent trades around 71 dollars and WTI near 66 dollars, both about 1 percent softer on the day as markets weigh tariff driven growth concerns against prior gains linked to Middle East risk and supply dynamics. Current levels support energy exporters and headline inflation but are not yet extreme enough to force a fast rethink from central banks. - 📈 Stocks:
Equity markets are hesitant. US futures are down, European futures are softer, and Asia is split between strong gains in parts of North Asia and holiday affected quiet elsewhere. The combination of tariff noise, an important week for inflation data and a heavy single name earnings focus in AI related sectors means index level volatility is likely to stay elevated even if the macro backdrop remains one of moderate growth. - ₿ Crypto:
Crypto has rolled over, with Bitcoin sliding roughly 4–5 percent toward 65,000 dollars and altcoins underperforming as tariff uncertainty and weaker equity futures weigh on risk appetite. Recent price action reinforces the idea that Bitcoin is trading as a high beta macro asset, sensitive to real yields and policy expectations, rather than decoupling from the rest of the risk complex.
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
Need help decoding this article? Get our free Macro Decoder ebook when signing up to our newsletter using the sign up button below! No spam, just value.