🧠Tech rebound tempers tariff stress while dollar drifts lower

Good morning traders from a bright, unexpectedly sunny IntelliTrade desk, where blue skies and 12–17°C temperatures make it feel more like early spring than late February. The streets might be calm, but on the screens we have tariffs, tech, and $5k gold all jostling for your attention, so top up that coffee and let’s walk through it.

Overall Market Sentiment

The mood has shifted to cautious risk on, rather than the outright fear we saw a couple of days ago. The broad US dollar index is trading around 97.6 to 97.8, marginally softer on the day after yesterday’s firm close, as investors digest a modest improvement in US consumer confidence and a rebound in global tech stocks.

Equities are stabilising. Asia opened higher after a tech-led bounce on Wall Street, and European futures point to a more constructive open as AI panic cools and attention swings to earnings from key chip names later in the week.

Safe-haven and real assets remain elevated rather than collapsing. Gold is holding near record territory around 5,200 dollars per ounce, supported by geopolitical tensions and ongoing doubts about tariff policy. Brent crude is hovering close to 72 dollars per barrel, near a six to seven month high, as traders weigh US–Iran tensions against mixed demand signals.

Crypto, which sold off sharply on tariff headlines earlier in the week, is trying to stabilise. Bitcoin has bounced back toward the mid 65,000s, up a little over 2 percent in the last 24 hours after several sessions of heavy selling.

Geopolitics

Geopolitics is still a core macro driver, but markets are adjusting from pure shock to measured pricing.

• On the trade front, the tariff story remains messy. Investors are still working through the implications of broad-based US tariff tools and the possibility of further measures, even as markets start to hope that some of the most extreme proposals are watered down. Tariff uncertainty is now being treated as a persistent risk premium rather than a one-off event.
• In energy, US–Iran tensions and a wider regional military buildup keep a risk premium embedded in oil. Brent is trading close to 72 dollars, with commentary highlighting how near-term supply fears are offsetting concerns about slower demand.

For FX and macro, this means:

• A structural bid in gold and a still-elevated floor under oil.
• Ongoing support for safe havens like JPY and CHF in severe risk-off episodes, even if yield gaps complicate the day-to-day direction.
• Pressure on trade-linked and high beta currencies when tariff headlines flare up, especially in Asia and the commodity bloc.

Policy and data: today and the rest of the week

Today (Wednesday)

• In the United States, the key fresh data point is the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index, which has just ticked up to 91.2 from 89.0. That tells us households are feeling a bit better after a rough January, though expectations are still at levels historically associated with caution rather than exuberance.
• Across Asia, markets are focused on the tech rebound and how much damage the earlier AI-driven selloff actually did to sentiment. A better tone in tech helps lift broader indices and provides some relief to growth-sensitive currencies.

The rest of this week

• United States
  
• The big macro print is PPI inflation on Friday, which will show whether pipeline price pressures remain contained after softer consumer inflation. Together with consumer confidence and durable goods orders earlier in the week, PPI will shape how quickly markets expect the Federal Reserve to move toward cuts.
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• Euro area
  
• After the recent flash estimate showing headline inflation near 1.7 percent year on year in January, markets now look ahead to February CPI previews and survey data to confirm that disinflation remains on track and that growth is not deteriorating again.
• 
  
• United Kingdom
  
• The focus is on how softer inflation feeds into activity indicators and housing data. Markets are still debating whether the Bank of England can wait until mid year to move, or whether tariff and energy risks will make it more cautious.
• 
  
• Australia
  
• Fresh CPI data showed annual inflation holding at 3.8 percent but core (trimmed mean) inflation rising to 3.4 percent, a 16 month high. That keeps the Reserve Bank of Australia on a tightening-biased footing and has already pushed the Australian dollar higher. Governor Bullock is due to speak later, and markets will parse her tone carefully.
• 
  
• Japan
  
• Tokyo inflation data at the end of the week, along with commentary about the pace of policy normalisation at the Bank of Japan, will be critical for the yen. Markets are weighing a still-large yield gap against the possibility of further tightening if inflation refuses to fade.
• 
  
• Canada, Switzerland, China
  
• Later in the week, Canadian data, Swiss growth numbers and China PMIs will round out the picture for CAD, CHF and the China-sensitive commodity bloc. Together with PPI, these will give a clearer picture of whether we are moving back toward a soft-landing narrative or a slower, more fragmented global cycle.
• 
  

Currency outlooks

⚖️ USD – Softer dollar as confidence improves and tech rebounds

The broad dollar index is roughly 97.6 to 97.8, fractionally lower after yesterday’s close around 97.8, and close to where it started the week. In other words, the dollar is consolidating rather than trending aggressively.

The modest rise in US consumer confidence to 91.2 supports the soft-landing narrative, but expectations remain subdued and tariff uncertainty still hangs over the growth outlook. That combination means US yields offer support, yet the dollar is no longer a one-way safe-haven trade the way it was at earlier points in the cycle.

For the rest of this week, risks for USD look fairly balanced. A benign PPI print and ongoing equity stability would encourage more rotation into non-dollar assets, while any upside surprise in price data or renewed tariff escalation could quickly restore a stronger defensive bid and push the index back toward the high 97s to low 98s.

⚖️ EUR – Euro holding the line as markets await fresh inflation signals

EURUSD is hovering around 1.18, with intraday analysis describing a tight sideways range and an “anticipating phase” as traders wait for a decisive break of support near 1.1775. The pair remains in a short-term corrective structure after pulling back from the year-to-date high above 1.20.

Macro-wise, the euro benefits from a softer dollar and an improving inflation picture at home. Flash data suggest euro area inflation near 1.7 percent, comfortably below the European Central Bank target, yet not weak enough to force immediate aggressive easing. That allows the ECB to remain patient and keeps rate differentials from moving sharply against the euro.

For the remainder of the week, risks for EUR versus USD look broadly neutral. If US PPI is calm and euro data do not disappoint, the pair is likely to oscillate inside a 1.1775 to 1.19 band. A break below 1.1775 on renewed dollar strength would suggest the corrective phase has further to run, while a sustained move back above 1.19 would indicate that the broader euro recovery trend is reasserting itself.

🔺 GBP – Sterling grinding higher but still hostage to global risk

GBPUSD is trading around 1.35, extending gains for a fourth session and edging above 1.3515 in early dealing. Technical commentary frames this as a climb inside a broad falling wedge that formed after the January highs.

Fundamentally, the UK has seen welcome progress on inflation, but services and wage dynamics remain sticky enough that the Bank of England is not in a rush to cut. Markets are now focusing on how incoming data on activity and housing interact with tariff and AI-driven equity volatility, both of which affect UK assets through global risk channels.

For this week, risks for GBP versus USD lean modestly to the upside, as long as the tech rebound holds and UK data do not sharply disappoint. Markets are watching the 1.345 area as near-term support and 1.36–1.37 as a zone where the rally may pause unless the domestic story improves further.

⚖️ CAD – Loonie pinned near the top of its range as oil and tariffs offset

The Canadian dollar is little changed, with USDCAD trading around 1.368–1.369, just below the top of its recent February range. Intraday data show the pair down about 0.1–0.2 percent on the day, as firm oil prices and mildly better risk appetite lean against a still-strong dollar.

Recent commentary notes that USDCAD has repeatedly tested resistance near 1.3720–1.3730, with the pair now trying to gain fresh bullish momentum without a clear breakout. That reflects a market where Canada’s stable inflation and high oil prices offer some support, but global tariff worries and the US policy backdrop keep CAD from taking full advantage.

For the rest of the week, risks for CAD versus USD look mixed. A calm PPI print and ongoing resilience in oil would favour a drift toward the mid 1.36s, while any renewed risk aversion or hotter US data could push USDCAD back toward the 1.37 handle.

🔺 CHF – Franc still quietly strong as dollar leg wobbles

USDCHF is oscillating around 0.773–0.774, near the lower end of its one year range and only slightly above yesterday’s close. Over the past year the pair is down roughly 13 percent, a sign of how persistent franc strength has been.

Analysis for today flags the potential for a modest bullish correction toward 0.7755, but the medium-term outlook still favours further downside, with some projections pointing to the 0.75 area over time. With Swiss inflation low and the Swiss National Bank comfortable with a firm currency, CHF remains a favoured safe-haven diversifier whenever macro uncertainty spikes.

For the coming days, risks for CHF versus USD tilt toward further franc strength, especially if PPI and other US data do not surprise on the upside. Only a sharp improvement in global risk sentiment combined with higher US yields would likely trigger a sustained move back toward 0.78–0.79.

🔻 JPY – Yen slumps as politics and policy tilt dovish again

The yen is under pressure again. USDJPY has extended its rally, trading in a zone where 155 is in sight and some intraday quotes have already broken above the recent highs. Commentary points to a combination of renewed US rate support and domestic political developments, including the nomination of more dovish officials at the Bank of Japan, as drivers of the move.

Markets are also repricing the path of Japanese policy after earlier expectations of a faster normalisation. While Tokyo CPI at the end of the week may still argue for gradual tightening, the tone from policymakers has recently skewed more cautious, which keeps the yield gap with the US wide and supports carry trades that fund in JPY.

For the rest of this week, risks for JPY versus USD lean clearly toward further yen weakness, as long as US data are not outright soft. The 156 area is highlighted as a near-term barrier, but a break above would not be surprising if yields stay firm and Japanese officials avoid strong pushback on the currency.

🔺 AUD – Aussie lifted by hot inflation and a more hawkish RBA path

The Australian dollar has firmed after January CPI showed annual inflation holding at 3.8 percent, with trimmed mean inflation rising to 3.4 percent, a 16 month high. AUDUSD has edged higher in response, with commentary noting gains of roughly 0.25 percent in the first hour after the release and further strength as the session progressed.

This keeps the Reserve Bank of Australia on a tightening-biased path. Market pricing now implies a very high probability of another hike by May, which supports AUD through the interest rate channel even as tariffs and global growth worries linger.

For the remainder of the week, risks for AUD versus USD lean to the upside. As long as PPI does not deliver a major upside shock for the dollar and global risk sentiment stays reasonably constructive, dips toward the 0.70 area are likely to find demand, with resistance flagged in the 0.71–0.715 region.

🔻 NZD – Kiwi enjoys a small bounce but remains in corrective mode

The New Zealand dollar is trying to stabilise after recent weakness. NZDUSD has bounced toward 0.5990, supported by a modest improvement in risk sentiment and a slightly softer dollar following the latest US political and tariff headlines.

Even so, the broader picture remains one of a bearish corrective trend. Technical commentary notes that the pair is still trading below key moving averages, with rallies viewed as corrective inside a down channel and support eyed near 0.5960. Fundamental drivers include a cautious Reserve Bank of New Zealand stance and sensitivity to China and global trade headlines.

For this week, risks for NZD versus USD still lean to the downside. Unless there is a clear, sustained improvement in global growth sentiment or a more hawkish shift from the RBNZ, the path of least resistance remains for NZDUSD to oscillate around 0.60 with downside tests toward 0.595 if US data surprise on the strong side.

Cross-asset wrap

• 🪙 Gold:
  Gold is trading around 5,200–5,225 dollars per ounce, fractionally higher on the day and near all-time highs. The metal is supported by tariff uncertainty, Middle East tensions and persistent demand from investors looking for a hedge against both inflation and policy risk. The key battle zone for this week remains 5,000–5,250, with any decisive break higher likely requiring either a renewed spike in geopolitical fears or a surprisingly soft US inflation profile.
• 🛢 Oil:
  Brent crude is holding around 72 dollars per barrel, near a six to seven month high after a strong February rally driven by US–Iran tensions and tight inventories. Although there have been brief pullbacks around headlines of possible talks, the underlying trend is still gently upward, with intraday analysis flagging a bullish bias and scope for further recovery if supply worries persist.
• 📈 Stocks:
  After a sharp AI-linked selloff, global equities are stabilising. Tech stocks have led a rebound in the US and Asia, which has helped calm volatility indicators and lifted risk appetite from last week’s lows. That said, investors remain sensitive to tariff headlines and to upcoming earnings from key AI-related names, which will determine whether this is a durable turn or just a pause.
• ₿ Crypto:
  Bitcoin has bounced back above 65,000 dollars after Monday’s drop below 63,000 on tariff headlines. The move fits the pattern of BTC trading as a high beta macro asset, reacting quickly to swings in risk appetite and real yields. With gold at records and tariffs still in play, some investors are using crypto as a speculative expression of macro views rather than as a pure hedge.

This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.

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