Published: 11/3/2025

Overall Market Sentiment: Cautious risk-on. The dollar stays supported by tight funding and a still-positive U.S. curve, while an OPEC+ pause beyond December nudges energy firmer and lends a small tailwind to commodity FX.

Geopolitics (energy policy): OPEC+ is set to add a small December increment, then pause planned increases into Q1. If Brent holds above 84, CAD downside is cushioned; a clear break under 82 would argue for renewed USD outperformance versus petro FX.

Currency Outlooks

🔺 USD: Dollar support comes from firm front-end yields and tighter money-market conditions. Futures imply roughly a 70–75% chance of another Fed cut in December, but funding tightness and a gently positive 2s10s slope keep dips contained unless activity softens. ISM manufacturing today is the first hurdle; a sub-50 read would challenge the bid, while a surprise bounce extends it. Key levels: DXY bias steady; EURUSD 1.1500 support, 1.1620 resistance; USDJPY 153.50 support, 154.40 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔺 bullish.

🔻 EUR: Euro area inflation is hovering near target and the ECB is comfortably on hold, so EUR trades mostly off the U.S. rates path. Narrow ranges can stretch quickly if U.S. data miss. A benign ISM favors a grind higher; a firm print caps rallies. Key levels: 1.1500 support, 1.1620 then 1.1680 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.

⚖️ GBP: The BoE decides Thursday. Markets lean to a hold now, with a cut later if disinflation stays on track. Sterling trades the global rates tone while watching Wednesday’s services pulse. Key levels: 1.2900 support, 1.3050 and 1.3120 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

🔻 CAD: The BoC trimmed to 2.25% last week and signalled a wait-and-see stance. Oil stability into the OPEC+ pause limits CAD downside, but broad USD tone still dominates day to day. Key levels: USDCAD 1.3600 support, 1.3740 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish CAD (bullish USDCAD).

⚖️ CHF: Swiss inflation is near zero and the SNB is on hold at 0.00%, so CHF toggles with risk and rate differentials. EURCHF is the cleaner policy lens than USDCHF while DXY is firm. Key levels: EURCHF 0.9250–0.9350 range focus; USDCHF pivot near 0.9000.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

🔻 JPY: The BoJ kept settings steady while keeping optionality for a later hike. Wide U.S.–Japan differentials keep USDJPY elevated, and intervention sensitivity rises as 155 comes into view. Key levels: 153.50 support, 154.40 and 155.00 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish JPY.

⚖️ AUD: The RBA meets tomorrow with markets leaning to no change at 3.60%. AUD trades cleanly on global risk and China tone until guidance lands. Key levels: 0.6500 support, 0.6620 resistance.
Timeframe bias: Short term ⚖️ neutral.

🔻 NZD: The RBNZ cut 50 bp in October to ~2.50% and left the door open to more easing if growth weakens. Rate spreads versus USD and AUD stay soft, so rallies are fragile unless risk improves. Key levels: NZDUSD 0.5900 support, 0.6030 resistance; EURNZD supply near 1.8200–1.8300.
Timeframe bias: Short term 🔻 bearish.

Conclusion

🪙 Gold: Supported on dips while real yields are capped. A soft ISM would add a tailwind.

🛢 Oil: Pause beyond December tightens balances versus prior expectations. Holds above 84 keep CAD and NOK steadier; a break under 82 argues for renewed weakness.

📈 Stocks: Mixed. Energy and defensives benefit from firmer oil and stable yields, while high-beta growth needs softer U.S. data to extend.

₿ Crypto: Sensitive to the USD and dollar liquidity. If front-end yields ease after ISM, funding improves and BTC has room to firm toward recent range highs; stronger USD would cap rallies.