Good morning traders from a cool but brighter IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam opening near 9°C under patchy sun, a brief shower risk early, and a cloudier mid-teens afternoon ahead, so bring the coffee closer as we work through a Thursday market that still trusts diplomacy only part of the way.
Overall Market Sentiment:
Market mood is cautiously risk-on, but not carefree. The dollar is hovering near six-week lows, Asian equities are pushing higher, and Wall Street is coming off fresh record closes as markets keep pricing out part of the war premium. At the same time, Brent is still sitting around $95, which is low enough to calm panic but not low enough to erase the inflation shock completely.
The main macro tension is that diplomacy is helping sentiment faster than it is fixing physical energy flows. China’s first-quarter growth beat expectations and Australia’s labor market stayed firm, which is helping the risk mood, but shipping through Hormuz remains disrupted and Europe’s bond markets are still carrying the scars of the energy shock.
Geopolitics:
Geopolitics remains central because markets are trading peace headlines against still-fragile supply conditions. Oil steadied rather than fell away again on Thursday because traders remain skeptical that talks will quickly restore normal traffic through Hormuz, even with a ceasefire still in place and more diplomacy being discussed.
Brent in the broad $94 to $95 area is the clearest macro reference today. It is well below the recent spike zone, but still high enough to keep central banks cautious, leave Europe and Japan exposed through imported energy, and stop the dollar from turning into a clean one-way downside story. Assumption: today’s better mood holds only if talks keep progressing and shipping access improves more than the market has seen so far.
Macro Calendar
Today
- Overnight, China reported first-quarter GDP growth of 5.0% year on year, with industrial output up 5.7% in March while retail sales slowed to 1.7%. That helps risk appetite, but it also keeps the focus on whether external demand can stay resilient if oil remains elevated.
- Australia’s March jobs data showed employment up 17,900 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, which is one reason AUD is trading with more rate support than most high-beta currencies right now.
- In Europe, the UK releases February GDP, services, industrial output, manufacturing output, and the goods trade balance today, while the euro area publishes final March HICP. Those releases matter because both GBP and EUR are trying to extend dollar-driven gains against a still-awkward energy backdrop.
- The ECB’s March meeting account is due today, and markets will be looking for how patient policymakers still want to be after euro area inflation moved back up to 2.5%.
- In the U.S., industrial production is due at 9:15 a.m. ET. For markets, this is a useful check on whether activity is still holding up while oil stays above pre-war levels.
The rest of this week
- Friday’s top-tier calendar is lighter, so markets are likely to trade the digestion of today’s UK, ECB, and U.S. data through the lens of oil, yields, and headlines around Hormuz.
- Earnings remain macro-relevant into the end of the week, with TSMC in focus for AI capex today and Netflix and PepsiCo still on deck, because strong corporate demand is helping equities look through some of the geopolitical damage.
🔻 USD - Dollar softer, but still not without a floor
The dollar is still under pressure because the market keeps stripping out the safe-haven premium that built up during the worst of the oil shock. The greenback is also losing some yield support as Treasury yields edge lower and traders reopen the door to easier Fed policy later this year. But the downside is not clean, because the U.S. still looks less exposed than Europe or Japan to imported energy stress and oil is still high enough to keep inflation nerves alive. Today’s U.S. industrial data and the broader shape of yields matter because they will tell the market whether growth is cooling gently or holding up well enough to keep the Fed cautious. Risks lean to further USD softness while diplomacy holds, but a rebound in crude or a stickier inflation read would quickly rebuild support.
🔺 EUR - Euro stronger, but still carrying the energy question
The euro is benefiting from a softer dollar and is hovering around its strongest levels since before the February conflict. That helps, but the underlying story is still awkward because the euro area remains more exposed to imported energy costs and policymakers still do not look ready to rush into an April rate move. That leaves the single currency trading more on the fading war premium than on a fully convincing domestic growth story. Markets are likely to keep watching the 1.18 area in EURUSD, with 1.19 above as the next broader zone traders would notice if the dollar continues to slide. The constructive tone holds while oil stays off the highs, but it weakens quickly if the supply story worsens again.
⚖️ GBP - Sterling firmer, but today’s UK data matters more now
Sterling is also riding the softer-dollar move and is trading near its best levels since before the conflict escalated. But the pound still sits in a tougher domestic mix than the headline move suggests, because the UK has been hit hard by the energy shock and the growth outlook has already been marked down sharply this year. That is why today’s UK GDP and production data matter so much. If the numbers hold up, GBP can keep leaning on the 1.35 to 1.36 zone. If they disappoint, sterling risks looking more like a dollar-weakness story than a true UK outperformance story.
⚖️ CAD - Loonie still split between weaker USD and softer oil
CAD remains one of the trickier G10 currencies to frame. A weaker U.S. dollar and better global risk sentiment are supportive, and the loonie already pushed to a three-week high earlier this week, but Brent sitting below the recent spike also removes part of the usual oil tailwind. That leaves USDCAD still best viewed through the 1.37 to 1.38 zone for now. The bias is mixed, and it likely stays that way unless either oil or the broad dollar move starts to dominate more clearly.
🔻 CHF - Franc likely to give back some haven premium
The franc looks more vulnerable while the market mood leans toward relief rather than defense. Switzerland still has low inflation and the SNB remains more focused on preventing excessive franc strength than on chasing tighter policy, so CHF tends to lose some edge when oil settles and the dollar softens at the same time. EURCHF remains the cleaner lens here, because Europe’s energy risk has eased at the margin without disappearing. Near-term risks lean toward a weaker CHF, though that view would reverse quickly if talks stall and oil jumps back higher.
⚖️ JPY - Lower oil helps, but 160 still matters
The yen is getting some support from the softer dollar backdrop and from closer U.S.-Japan communication on exchange rates. Lower oil also helps Japan on the terms-of-trade side, but the currency still does not have a fully clean setup because the BOJ remains cautious and the 160 area still hangs over the market as an intervention risk zone. Markets are increasingly leaning toward a rate move by midyear, but they are also wary of tightening into a still-uncertain energy shock. That leaves JPY looking more balanced than bullish, with the 158 to 160 area still the main attention zone.
🔺 AUD - Aussie now has both risk and rates on its side
AUD is one of the cleaner winners today. A firmer Australian labor report and a still-hawkish domestic rate backdrop are now lining up with the broader risk rebound, which is why AUDUSD is pressing toward the 0.72 area and trading near a four-year high. The tilt stays positive while the market keeps rewarding diplomacy and the China story stays firm.
🔺 NZD - Kiwi constructive while the global tone holds
NZD is also benefitting from the softer dollar backdrop and the market’s shift away from outright defense. It does not have quite the same fresh domestic data boost as AUD today, but it is still being helped by the same combination of better risk appetite and lower war premium. The 0.58 to 0.59 zone remains the key area in NZDUSD, and the constructive bias holds unless oil and the dollar both turn back up together.
Cross-asset wrap
- 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,831, up on the day and near a one-month high after the softer-dollar move extended. The main drivers are the weaker USD and slightly lower long-end yields, while the metal is also holding onto some support because oil is still high enough to keep the inflation story unresolved. Watch next whether yields keep easing after today’s macro data. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [INFLATION]
- 🥈 Silver: Silver is around $80.6 and rising faster than gold, which tells you the market is also pricing a better cyclical tone, not just a softer dollar. The main drivers are the weaker USD and easier yield pressure first, with industrial demand optimism adding extra support while risk sentiment improves. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
- 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is around $95, far below the recent panic zone above $100 but still well above where it traded before the supply shock intensified. The first drivers are still Hormuz access and the credibility of peace talks, while physical tightness and tighter U.S. balances are keeping a firm floor under the market. Watch next whether actual shipping improves, because futures are still pricing more hope than proof. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
- 📈 Stocks: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh records on Wednesday, and Asian equities are extending the move with Japan up 2.2% and regional stocks up about 0.9% today. The main drivers are the fading war premium, stronger bank earnings, solid China growth, and the sense that AI capex is still overpowering near-term macro anxiety. Watch next today’s TSMC tone and whether oil stays contained enough for the rally to broaden. [RATES] [EARNINGS] [RISK]
- ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $75,087, trading today between roughly $73,606 and $75,218, so volatility is active but still orderly relative to oil and FX. The main drivers remain liquidity expectations, real yields, and broad risk appetite, which means crypto is still behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a pure geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]
This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.
Need help decoding this article? Get our free Macro Decoder ebook when signing up to our newsletter using the sign up button below! No spam, just value.