Weekend Iran talks and softer oil test the dollar’s next move | Daily Forex Market Update | IntelliTrade

Good morning traders from a damp but brightening IntelliTrade desk, with Amsterdam starting near 10°C in light rain before cloud gives way to sunnier breaks and a milder afternoon near 19°C, so pour the coffee and settle in for a Friday market that is looking through war risk, but not fully trusting peace yet.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Market mood is cautiously constructive. Oil is back below $100, the dollar is near its lowest level since early March, and U.S. equities are sitting at record highs as traders keep leaning into the idea that weekend diplomacy could extend the recent de-escalation trend.

But this is not a clean all-clear. The Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, yields are still elevated enough to keep inflation nerves alive, and markets are increasingly exposed to disappointment if the next round of talks produces only another temporary pause rather than a clearer reopening of energy flows.

Geopolitics:

Geopolitics remains central because markets are trading diplomacy against physical disruption, not diplomacy alone. A 10-day Lebanon-Israel ceasefire is now in place and weekend U.S.-Iran talks are being prepared, but Hormuz is still mostly shut and the energy shock is still feeding through global growth and inflation expectations.

Brent in the broad $98 area is the clearest macro reference today. That is low enough to ease the immediate stagflation scare, but still high enough to keep central banks cautious and leave Europe and Japan exposed through imported energy. Assumption: markets are pricing a temporary stabilization in the conflict, not a full normalization of shipping conditions.

Macro Calendar

Today

• Euro area trade data for February is the main scheduled release on Friday, which matters because Europe remains the clearest large FX bloc exposed to the energy and supply-chain hit from the Hormuz disruption.
• Positioning into the weekend U.S.-Iran talks is likely to matter more than most scheduled data today, because the next headline on diplomacy or shipping access can still move oil, the dollar, and broader risk sentiment quickly.

The week ahead

• The first market test next week will be the outcome of the April 18-19 U.S.-Iran talks and any sign that shipping through Hormuz is actually improving, because that still matters more than almost any routine data point for FX and macro.
• Flash PMIs arrive on April 22-23 across Australia, Japan, the euro area, the UK, and the U.S. Those surveys matter because markets need to know whether softer oil is enough to steady activity or whether the March energy shock is still dragging on growth.
• Japan’s national CPI for March is due on April 24, and that matters because USDJPY is still near levels that draw attention while the BOJ is trying to balance imported inflation against a fragile growth backdrop.
• Earnings season remains macro-relevant next week as the market tests whether resilient AI and large-cap earnings can keep equities at record highs even if energy costs stay above pre-war norms.

⚖️ USD - Dollar softer, but still not without a floor

The dollar has lost most of the safe-haven premium it built in March, and that is why the dollar index is sitting around 98.2 rather than back near the war highs. But the downside is not clean because Treasury yields are still elevated, labor-market signals remain firm enough to keep the Fed patient, and markets have largely shifted from pricing cuts to expecting rates to stay on hold for much of this year. The front end of the U.S. curve remains the key pressure point because any rebound in oil or broader inflation pass-through would rebuild dollar support quickly. The current bias stays soft while diplomacy holds and Brent stays under control. What would change that bias is a failed weekend meeting or a renewed rise in oil that pushes yields higher again.

🔺 EUR - Euro firmer, but still carrying the energy question

The euro is benefitting from broad dollar weakness and is trading around the upper 1.17s, close to seven-week highs. That helps, but the underlying story is still awkward because the euro area remains one of the clearest losers if shipping disruption keeps energy costs elevated. The ECB is still leaning patient, with policymakers arguing that an April hike would be premature even though inflation has moved back above target. That leaves the 1.17 to 1.18 zone as the key reference area in EURUSD. The constructive tone holds while oil stays off the highs, but it weakens quickly if the supply story worsens again.

⚖️ GBP - Sterling stronger, but growth still matters

Sterling is holding around $1.35 and has largely reversed the conflict-driven slide seen in March. The pound still has some support from a relatively firm UK rate backdrop, but the Bank of England is signaling patience because it is still hard to judge how much of the energy shock becomes lasting inflation and how much simply weakens demand. Yesterday’s stronger UK February GDP print helps, but it mostly tells markets the economy entered the shock in better shape than feared, not that the UK is immune to higher energy costs. The 1.35 area is the main GBPUSD reference zone, with the bias looking mixed rather than cleanly bullish into next week.

⚖️ CAD - Loonie caught between softer oil and softer dollar

CAD still has one of the messiest setups in G10. A softer U.S. dollar and better risk sentiment are supportive, and USDCAD has already moved down into the 1.37 area, but Brent slipping under $100 removes part of the loonie’s usual commodity tailwind. That leaves CAD trading as both an oil currency and a broader risk currency at the same time. The 1.37 to 1.38 zone remains the main USDCAD reference area. Near-term risks are mixed, and the balance likely depends on whether next week feels more like a weaker-dollar story or a slower-global-growth story.

🔻 CHF - Franc likely to give back haven premium if calm holds

The franc still has a strong defensive identity, but near-term risks lean toward a weaker CHF while markets keep rewarding de-escalation. Swiss inflation remains low and the SNB has been more concerned about excessive franc strength than about needing tighter policy, which means CHF loses some of its edge when fear fades. EURCHF is the cleaner lens here because Europe’s energy risk has eased at the margin, while USDCHF is more balanced as the dollar also loses haven demand. The near-term tilt weakens only if weekend diplomacy fails and the market rushes back into defense.

⚖️ JPY - Lower oil helps, but BOJ caution keeps yen mixed

The yen is getting some help from a softer dollar and from oil moving away from the worst levels, but it still does not have a fully clean setup. USDJPY is still near 159.5, which keeps the pair close to the kind of area that draws official attention, while the BOJ has just cooled expectations of an April rate move by avoiding any clear signal. That means lower oil is supportive for Japan’s terms of trade, but policy caution is still capping the rebound. The near-term bias looks mixed, with 159 to 160 still the key zone markets are watching.

🔺 AUD - Aussie still one of the clearer relief winners

AUD remains one of the cleaner beneficiaries of the current backdrop. It is trading around $0.7167, near four-year highs, and is being helped by softer dollar pressure, stronger risk appetite, and the broader argument that commodity-linked currencies remain well placed even if oil stays structurally higher than before the war. This week’s stronger Australian labor data only reinforced that mix. The constructive tilt stays intact while diplomacy holds and the global risk mood remains supportive.

🔺 NZD - Kiwi constructive while the global tone holds

NZD is still behaving like a higher-beta currency that benefits when the market moves away from outright defense. Around the upper 0.58s, it has not run as hard as the Aussie, but it still looks supported by the softer dollar backdrop and by the broader rotation into commodity and risk-sensitive currencies. The kiwi also retains some support from the idea that commodity exporters remain relatively well positioned even if energy flows do not normalize immediately. NZDUSD is still centered on the 0.58 to 0.59 zone, and the constructive bias holds unless oil and the dollar both turn back up together.

Cross-asset wrap

• 🪙 Gold: Spot gold is around $4,797, steady on the day and on track for a fourth weekly gain, though still below the stronger rebound zone seen earlier this month. The main drivers are the softer dollar and lower real-yield pressure first, with geopolitical uncertainty still offering support at the margin. Watch next the weekend talks, because a clearer path to peace would likely matter through oil and rate expectations rather than through haven demand alone. [USD] [REAL YIELDS] [RISK]
• 🥈 Silver: XAG/USD is in the high-$78s and pushing toward $79, recovering from early-April lows and still behaving more cyclically than gold. The main drivers are the weaker dollar and easier yield pressure, while structural supply tightness and industrial demand keep silver more sensitive than gold to the global growth story. [USD] [YIELDS] [INDUSTRIAL]
• 🛢 Oil (Brent): Brent is near $98, below the recent spike zone and back under $100, but still well above pre-war norms. The first drivers are weekend peace-talk hopes and ceasefire optimism, while the largely closed Strait of Hormuz and the warning that lost Middle East energy output may take years to recover are keeping a firm floor under the market. Watch next whether actual shipping access improves, because headlines alone may not be enough to keep Brent below $100. [SUPPLY] [DEMAND] [GEOPOLITICS]
• 📈 Stocks: U.S. equities are at record highs, with the S&P 500 back above 7,000 and the Nasdaq extending its winning run, while Asian stocks are still up sharply for April even after Friday’s pause. The main drivers are fading war premium, resilient earnings, and continued confidence that AI spending remains strong, though markets are also assuming the energy shock will not force a materially harder policy response. Watch next the weekend diplomacy, because equities still look vulnerable if Hormuz stays shut. [EARNINGS] [TECH] [RISK]
• ₿ Crypto: Bitcoin is around $74,768, trading between roughly $73,513 and $75,434 today, so volatility is active but still orderly relative to oil and FX. The main drivers remain liquidity expectations, real yields, and broad risk appetite, which keeps crypto behaving more like a macro-sensitive asset than a clean geopolitical hedge. [LIQUIDITY] [YIELDS] [RISK]

This is general, educational macro and FX commentary. It is not investment advice and not a trading signal.

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